At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals^1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife^3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal–virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

The COVID-19 pandemic will be an unprecedented test of governments’ ability to manage compound risks, as climate hazards disrupt outbreak response around the world. Immediate steps can be taken to minimize climate-attributable loss of life, but climate adaptation also needs a long-term strategy for pandemic preparedness.

Parasites face range loss and shifts under climate change, with likely parasite extinction rates of up to one in three species.

How many parasites are there on Earth? Here, we use helminth parasites to highlight how little is known about parasite diversity, and how insufficient our current approach will be to describe the full scope of life on Earth. Using the largest database of host–parasite associations and one of the world’s largest parasite collections, we estimate a global total of roughly 100 000–350 000 species of helminth endoparasites of vertebrates, of which 85–95% are unknown to science. The parasites of amphibians and reptiles remain the most poorly described, but the majority of undescribed species are probably parasites of birds and bony fish. Missing species are disproportionately likely to be smaller parasites of smaller hosts in undersampled countries. At current rates, it would take centuries to comprehensively sample, collect and name vertebrate helminths. While some have suggested that macroecology can work around existing data limitations, we argue that patterns described from a small, biased sample of diversity aren’t necessarily reliable, especially as host–parasite networks are increasingly altered by global change. In the spirit of moonshots like the Human Genome Project and the Global Virome Project, we consider the idea of a Global Parasite Project: a global effort to transform parasitology and inventory parasite diversity at an unprecedented pace.

Present estimates suggest there are over 1 million virus species found in mammals alone, with about half a million posing a possible threat to human health. Although previous estimates assume linear scaling between host and virus diversity, we show that ecological network theory predicts a non-linear relationship, produced by patterns of host sharing among virus species. To account for host sharing, we fit a power law scaling relationship for host–virus species interaction networks. We estimate that there are about 40,000 virus species in mammals (including ~10,000 viruses with zoonotic potential), a reduction of two orders of magnitude from present projections of viral diversity. We expect that the increasing availability of host–virus association data will improve the precision of these estimates and their use in the sampling and surveillance of pathogens with pandemic potential. We suggest host sharing should be more widely included in macroecological approaches to estimating biodiversity.

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature‐dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid‐century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst‐case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.