Objective To study the relation between low walking speed and the risk of death in older people, both overall and with regard to the main causes of death. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Dijon centre (France) of the Three-City study. Participants 3208 men and women aged ≥65 living in the community, recruited from 1999 to 2001, and followed for an average of 5.1 years. Main outcome measures Mortality, overall and according to the main causes of death, by thirds of baseline walking speed (measured at maximum speed over six metres), adjusted for several potential confounders; Kaplan-Meier survival curves by thirds of baseline walking speed. Vital status during follow-up. Causes of death. Results During 16 414 person years of follow-up, 209 participants died (99 from cancer, 59 from cardiovascular disease, 51 from other causes). Participants in the lowest third of baseline walking speed had an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.99) compared with the upper thirds. Analyses for specific causes of death showed that participants with low walking speed had about a threefold increased risk of cardiovascular death (2.92, 1.46 to 5.84) compared with participants who walked faster. There was no relation with cancer mortality (1.03, 0.65 to 1.70). In stratified analyses, cardiovascular mortality was increased across various strata defined by sex, median age, median body mass index (BMI), and level of physical activity. Conclusion Slow walking speed in older people is strongly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality.

Social inequalities in mortality persist in high-income countries with universal health care, and the mechanisms by which these inequalities are generated remain unclear. We aimed to examine whether social inequalities were present before or after the onset of adverse health conditions (multimorbidity, frailty, and disability). Our analysis was based on data from the ongoing Whitehall II cohort study, which enrolled British civil servants aged 35-55 years in 1985-88. Participants were assessed for three indicators of socioeconomic status (education, occupational position, and literacy) at age 50 years. Participants underwent clinical examinations (in 2002-04, 2007-09, 2012-13, and 2015-16) for assessment of frailty (two or more of low physical activity, slow walking speed, poor grip strength, weight loss, and exhaustion) and disability (two or more difficulties in bathing, dressing, going to the toilet, transferring, feeding, and walking). In addition, electronic health records were used to assess the incidence of multimorbidity (two or more of diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, arthritis, cancer, dementia, and Parkinson's disease) and mortality. In analyses adjusted for sociodemographic factors, we used multistate models to examine social inequalities in transitions from healthy state to adverse health conditions and subsequently to mortality. Of 10 308 individuals in the Whitehall II study cohort, 6425 had relevant data available at 50 years and to the end of follow-up on Aug 31, 2017, and were included in our analysis. Participants were followed up for a median of 23·6 years (IQR 19·6-28·9). 1694 (26·4%) of 6425 participants developed multimorbidity, 1733 (27·0%) became frail, 692 (10·8%) had a disability, and 611 (9·5%) died. Multimorbidity (hazard ratio [HR] 4·12 [95% CI 3·41-4·98]), frailty (HR 2·38 [95% CI 1·93-2·93]), and disability (HR 1·73 [95% CI 1·34-2·22]) were associated with increased risk of mortality; these associations were not modified by socioeconomic status. In multistate models, occupation was the socioeconomic status indicator that was most strongly associated with inequalities in the transition from healthy state to multimorbidity (HR 1·54 [95% CI 1·37-1·73]), to frailty (HR 2·08 [95% CI 1·85-2·33]), and to disability (HR 1·44 [95% CI 1·18-1·74]). Socioeconomic status indicators did not affect transitions to mortality in those with multimorbidity, frailty, or disability. Socioeconomic status affects the risk of multimorbidity, frailty, and disability, but does not affect the risk of mortality after the onset of these adverse health conditions. Therefore, primary prevention is key to reducing social inequalities in mortality. Of the three adverse health conditions, multimorbidity had the strongest association with mortality, making it a central target for improving population health. UK Medical Research Council; National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; British Heart Foundation.

Frailty is common and associated with poorer outcomes in the elderly, but its role as potential cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor requires clarification. We thus aimed to meta-analytically evaluate the evidence of frailty and pre-frailty as risk factors for CVD. Two reviewers selected all studies comparing data about CVD prevalence or incidence rates between frail/pre-frail vs. robust. The association between frailty status and CVD in cross-sectional studies was explored by calculating and pooling crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) ±95% confidence intervals (CIs); the data from longitudinal studies were pooled using the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Eighteen cohorts with a total of 31,343 participants were meta-analyzed. Using estimates from 10 cross-sectional cohorts, both frailty and pre-frailty were associated with higher odds of CVD than robust participants. Longitudinal data were obtained from 6 prospective cohort studies. After a median follow-up of 4.4 years, we identified an increased risk for faster onset of any-type CVD in the frail (HR=1.70 [95%CI, 1.18-2.45]; I2=66%) and pre-frail (HR=1.23 [95%CI, 1.07-1.36]; I2=67%) vs. robust groups. Similar results were apparent for time to CVD mortality in the frail and pre-frail groups. In conclusion, frailty and pre-frailty constitute addressable and independent risk factors for CVD in older adults.

Objective To examine the association between alcohol consumption and risk of dementia. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Civil service departments in London (Whitehall II study). Participants 9087 participants aged 35-55 years at study inception (1985/88). Main outcome measures Incident dementia, identified through linkage to hospital, mental health services, and mortality registers until 2017. Measures of alcohol consumption were the mean from three assessments between 1985/88 and 1991/93 (midlife), categorised as abstinence, 1-14 units/week, and >14 units/week; 17 year trajectories of alcohol consumption based on five assessments of alcohol consumption between 1985/88 and 2002/04; CAGE questionnaire for alcohol dependence assessed in 1991/93; and hospital admission for alcohol related chronic diseases between 1991 and 2017. Results 397 cases of dementia were recorded over a mean follow-up of 23 years. Abstinence in midlife was associated with a higher risk of dementia (hazard ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.89) compared with consumption of 1-14 units/week. Among those drinking >14 units/week, a 7 unit increase in alcohol consumption was associated with a 17% (95% confidence interval 4% to 32%) increase in risk of dementia. CAGE score >2 (hazard ratio 2.19, 1.29 to 3.71) and alcohol related hospital admission (4.28, 2.72 to 6.73) were also associated with an increased risk of dementia. Alcohol consumption trajectories from midlife to early old age showed long term abstinence (1.74, 1.31 to 2.30), decrease in consumption (1.55, 1.08 to 2.22), and long term consumption >14 units/week (1.40, 1.02 to 1.93) to be associated with a higher risk of dementia compared with long term consumption of 1-14 units/week. Analysis using multistate models suggested that the excess risk of dementia associated with abstinence in midlife was partly explained by cardiometabolic disease over the follow-up as the hazard ratio of dementia in abstainers without cardiometabolic disease was 1.33 (0.88 to 2.02) compared with 1.47 (1.15 to 1.89) in the entire population. Conclusion The risk of dementia was increased in people who abstained from alcohol in midlife or consumed >14 units/week. In several countries, guidelines define thresholds for harmful alcohol consumption much higher than 14 units/week. The present findings encourage the downward revision of such guidelines to promote cognitive health at older ages.

Background: Approximately 25% of the general population carries at least one ε4 allele of the Apolipoprotein E (APOEε4), the strongest genetic risk factor for late onset Alzheimer’s disease. Beyond its association with late-onset dementia, the association betweenAPOEε4 and change in cognition over the adult life course remains uncertain. This study aims to examine whether the association between Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 zygosity and cognition function is modified between midlife and old age.Methods: A cohort study of 5561 participants (mean age 55.5 (SD = 5.9) years, 27.1% women) withAPOEgenotyping and repeated cognitive tests for reasoning, memory, and semantic and phonemic fluency, during a mean (SD) follow-up of 20.2 (2.8) years (the Whitehall II study). We used joint models to examine the association ofAPOEgenotype with cognitive function trajectories between 45 and 85 years taking drop-out, dementia, and death into account and Fine and Gray models to examine associations with dementia.Results: Compared to non-carriers, heterozygote (prevalence 25%) and homozygote (prevalence 2%)APOEε4 carriers had increased risk of dementia, sub-distribution hazard ratios 2.19 (95% CI 1.73, 2.77) and 5.97 (95% CI 3.85, 9.28) respectively. Using data spanning 45–85 years with non-ε4 carriers as the reference, ε4 homozygotes had poorer global cognitive score starting from 65 years; ε4 heterozygotes had better scores between 45 and 55 years, then no difference until poorer cognitive scores from 75 years onwards. In analysis of individual cognitive tests, better cognitive performance in the younger ε4 heterozygotes was primarily attributable to executive function.Conclusions: Both heterozygous and homozygous ε4 carriers had poorer cognition and greater risk of dementia at older ages. Our findings show some support for a complex antagonist pleiotropic effect ofAPOEε4 heterozygosity over the adult life course, characterized by cognitive advantage in midlife.