Through this paper we aimed to develop a comparison between ARIMA, Prophet, KNN and Neural Networks in terms of stock prices forecasting. After reviewing the literature, we noticed that there is a plethora of studies that address this problem of forecasting, but very few have made comparisons that include ARIMA, machine learning, but also the Prophet forecasting model developed by Facebook, which brought interesting results for certain data series. Based on methodologies validated by other authors, we compared these models in our paper and we sought to obtain promising results regarding performance evaluation. The comparison was made in-sample, the training period being 01/01/2010 – 31/07/2021, but also out-of-sample (01/08/2021 – 31/10/2021). The study was performed for Societe Generale’s stock, using daily observations. Statistical loss functions such as RMSE, MPE, MAPE, MAE, and ME were used for comparison. The results indicated an outperformance of Neural Networks, both in-sample and out-of-sample, this model being on the 1st place according to the aggregated score. It is also noteworthy that the ARIMA model was in second place in-sample, ahead of KNN, but for out of sample these two algorithms changed their positions. On the other hand, the Prophet algorithm performed the weakest, both in-sample and out of sample. Also, we must underlie that all four algorithms had a clear tendency to overestimate the price of Societe Generale, according to the results of the statistical loss functions ME and MPE. Finally, it should be noted that the results were consistent with what other authors found out, especially for the out-of-sample period, where the machine learning models performed best.

The methods that a country's central bank uses to control the total amount of money in circulation and affect trade, consumption, and economic growth are collectively referred to as monetary policy. A monetary expansionary policy entails a reduction in interest rates. As borrowing costs decrease, customers are encouraged to borrow more money and spend more, which boosts consumer spending and promotes economic growth. On the other hand, when interest rates rise during contractionary monetary policy, saving becomes more appealing while borrowing becomes more expensive. As a result, consumers may cut down on spending, which has an impact on aggregate consumption. Businesses are encouraged to invest by lower interest rates brought on by expansionary policies. They may borrow money more cheaply, which boosts imports, company expansion, and capital expenditures. Trade can increase if expansionary measures cause the home currency to weaken and become more appealing to export. In contrast, exports can be hampered by a rising currency. In conclusion, trade dynamics, corporate investment, and consumption patterns should be all greatly impacted by monetary policy measures. In order to find out some evidence about the monetary policy and its impact on consumption and trade in Romania, the paper uses statistical information from the National Bank of Romania between 2003 and 2023 for the monetary policy interest rate. This is going to be assessed base on its impact upon: Final consumption expenditure of general government; Final consumption expenditure of households; Gross capital formation; Exports of goods and services; Imports of goods and services; all of this taken from Eurostat. The results should point out if an increase or decrease of monetary policy interest rate is going to produce an impact upon consumption and trade, or the contrary is going to take place.

The Economic Competitiveness is a term which has a significant importance in the welfare of a country and also in the development of a company. A simple definition says that competitiveness is the ability of a state or even a firm to put in the market products and services that have a high quality and, in addition, are competitive with others in terms of price; being able to bring some profit after covering all the expenses appeared in the production process. The main objective of this paperwork is to emphasize which factors drive the evolution of the economic competitiveness. It is influenced by internal factors – in a microeconomic perspective –, as well as external factors – in a macroeconomic point of view, factors such as: division of labour, specialization, assets (resources), processes and institutions and government policies. The study is based on the specialized literature in the economic field, precisely the one which influence the economic competitiveness. Economic competitiveness is a complicated notion shaped by a multitude of factors, it appears that utilizing multiple or mixed indicators (indexes) of competitiveness is the most relevant technique to estimate its level. Although the traditional theory of comparative advantage controlled global trade thinking for a long time, it is now regarded as an insufficient justification for firms’ competitive advantage in today’s business climate. Advances in technology and innovation, as well as some environmental resource limitation issues, have generated new options for obtaining, preserving, and also enhancing productivity versus opponents in an incredibly challenging, worldwide economy.

Geopolitical changes have shown that current threats are not only directed at the state’s security but also at the individual’s. Besides the traditional concept of security, a new concept has emerged: economic security. The liberal conception was based on the hypothesis that economic interdependence would lead not only to prosperity but also to greater security. Traditional analyses do not sufficiently capture the real connections between the economy and security. In traditional approaches to security, the key concept was state security; in neo-traditional ones, new actors such as international organizations and non-governmental organizations also intervene alongside the state. Transformations in the international system demonstrate the need for a geostrategic renegotiation of relations at the regional level to ensure states of regional economic cooperation based on principles promoted by the European Union. Our analysis is a qualitative one, examining documents relevant to our topic, as well as a series of theories that underpin our analysis. Our research methods include content analysis of important documents and a SWOT analysis of the current crisis generated by the conflict in Ukraine. The central issue is given by these major changes that challenge the European project. In the face of these geopolitical changes, the following question arises: “Can economic interdependence be used to create stable bilateral relations between EU member states and between the EU and third countries to ensure European economic security?” The research starts from the following hypothesis: “As long as there is cooperation between the countries neighbouring the EU, there will be no risk of conflicts.” Since the EU acts not only in its own interest but also to create a business environment conducive to the development of enterprises in member countries, the risks the EU is exposed to as a global actor will also impact various industrial sectors and the internal market. Our objective is to demonstrate that the European Union, as a regional actor, can ensure the economic security of member states in the face of new hybrid threats. Our analysis focus on examining the economic relations between the European Union and its Eastern neighbours in the context of rapid changes in the international arena.