Energy efficiency is a central element of the European Union’s approach to achieving its climate and energy objectives, underscoring the need for analytical tools that can support the assessment of future energy efficiency policies and trends. This paper applies the ODEX methodology within a combined ex-post and ex-ante framework to examine projected developments in energy efficiency across sectors. By extending ODEX, traditionally used for retrospective monitoring, to forward-looking national scenarios, the study provides a consistent basis for comparing historical progress with anticipated future improvements. The approach is illustrated using two EU Member States, demonstrating its broader applicability for assessing national strategies and identifying where additional measures may be necessary to meet future final energy consumption targets. The findings reflect patterns reported in recent literature, showing substantial differences in expected efficiency gains across sectors and highlighting areas where progress may need to accelerate to remain in line with EU ambitions. The results also indicate how a top-down, consumption-weighted index such as ODEX can complement existing evaluation practices by offering a transparent way to interpret efficiency trends and by supporting preliminary assessments of energy efficiency policy impacts. While the approach does not replace detailed modelling or bottom-up evaluation methods, it provides a reproducible and data-efficient tool that can assist with cross-country benchmarking, policy evaluation, and ongoing monitoring under the Energy Efficiency Directive. By linking observed trends (ex-post) with forward-looking (ex-ante) scenarios, the framework may contribute to strengthening national and EU-level discussions on future energy efficiency pathways.

The greatest challenge of future development of urban areas has been related with the sustainability issues. Unfortunately, sustainability issues and related costs of resources, including energy, occupy minds only of minority in the society. In the process of transition toward low carbon society many countries have set indicative targets which are revealing desired momentum of change but only at the national level. The absence of clear and direct transformation of national targets into implementation programmes at the local level was the crucial reason why many previous goals have not been achieved. Within the paper, six main sustainability indicators related to the quality of living in urban areas have been described and discussed. Indicators have been tested and customised during the analysis of future development challenges of the Slovenian capital, City of Ljubljana. Results of the analysis show that suggested indicators may be used in the process of municipal energy planning. During the research work, technology and sector oriented bottom up reference energy and environmental system model of City of Ljubljana has been developed. It is the first so complex reference energy and environmental system model that has been developed on the municipal level in the Southeast Europe.