Vulnerable Kaiser's mountain newt, Neurergus kaiseri, is endemic to highland streams, springs, and pools of the southwestern Zagros mountain, Iran. The present study aimed to use an integration of phylogeographical and species distribution modeling (SDM) approaches to provide new insights into the evolutionary history of the species throughout Quaternary climate oscillations. The phylogeographical analysis was followed by analyzing two mitochondrial DNA (mt‐DNA) markers including 127 control region (D‐loop) and 72 NADH dehydrogenase 2 (ND2) sequences from 15 populations in the entire species range that were obtained from GenBank. Potential recent and past distribution (the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM, 21 Kya and the Mid‐Holocene, 6 Kya) reconstructed by ensemble SDM using nine algorithms with CCSM4, MIROC‐ESM, and MPI‐ESM‐P models. N. kaiseri displayed two distinct lineages in the northern and southern regions that diverged in the Early‐Pleistocene. The demographics analysis showed signs of a slight increase in effective population size for both northern and southern populations in the Mid‐Pleistocene. Biogeography analysis showed that both vicariance and dispersal events played an important role in the formation of recent species distribution of N. kaiseri. Based on SDM projection onto paleoclimatic data, N. kaiseri displayed a scenario of past range expansion that followed by postglacial contraction. The models showed that the distribution range of the species may have shifted to a lower altitude during LGM while with amelioration of climatic during Mid‐Holocene to recent conditions caused the species to shift to the higher altitude. The findings of the current study support the hypothesis that the Zagros mountains​ may be acting as climatic refugia and play an important role in the protection of isolated populations during climate oscillations.

This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and future (2070) based on the averages of 14 global climate models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual precipitation (n = 16) and annual mean temperature (n = 7) were identified as the most important variables in determining the distribution of 76.66% (23 out of 30) of the species. The consensus model predicts that the ranges of 83.33% of species (n = 25) have the potential to expand poleward at higher latitudes while preserving the majority of their recent distributions (except for four species). Furthermore, the ranges of the remaining species (n = 5) will be preserved at higher latitudes. However, they (n = 22) may contract slightly (n = 13) or excessively (n = 9) in the south of their distribution range at lower latitudes. These results indicate that species (N = 19) situated in mountainous areas such as the Zagros, Alborz, and Kopet Dagh may move or maintain their range at higher elevations as a result of future climate change. Finally, this study suggests that 30% of species (n = 9) may be threatened by future climate change and that they should be prioritized in conservation efforts.

Phylogeography is often used to investigate the effects of glacial cycles on current genetic structure of various plant and animal species. This approach can also identify the number and location of glacial refugia as well as the recolonization routes from those refugia to the current locations. To identify the location of glacial refugia of the Yellow‐spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini, we employed phylogeography patterns and genetic variability of this species by analyzing partial ND4 sequences (867 bp) of 67 specimens from 15 sampling localities from the whole species range in Iran and Iraq. Phylogenetic trees concordant with haplotype networks showed a clear genetic structure among populations as three groups corresponding to the populations in the north, center, and south. Evolutionary ages of clades north and south ranging from 0.15 to 0.17 Myr, while the oldest clade is the central clade, corresponding to 0.32 Myr. Bayesian skyline plots of population size change through time show a relatively slight increase until about 25 kyr (around the last glacial maximum) and a decline of population size about 2.5 kyr. The presence of geographically structured clades in north, center, and south sections of the species range signifies the disjunct populations that have emerged in three different refugium. This study illustrates the importance of the effect of previous glacial cycles in shaping the genetic structure of mountain species in the Zagros range. These areas are important in terms of long‐term species persistence and therefore valuable areas for conservation of biodiversity.

We investigated the phylogeographic structure of the genus Saara and studied whether the Zagros Mountain ranges influence the gene flow and dispersal at the landscape scale between the Iranian Saara species, including S. asmussi in the central Iranian plateau and S. loricata in the Mesopotamian lowlands. Phylogenetic analyses clearly show three well-supported species, including S. loricata, S. asmussi and S. hardwickii, that are distinct from Uromastyx species. The S-DIVA and BBM analyses demonstrate that species of Saara originated from an ancestor somewhere in the Iranian Plateau and then dispersed to its current geographical range. Our results indicate that the separation of S. loricata from S. asmussi coincides with the orogenic events of the Zagros Mountains during the Pliocene, and thus it may show a vicariance event. Diversification within populations of S. loricata and S. assmussi are estimated to have occurred during the Pleistocene. The haplotype network indicates one haplogroup for each of the Iranian Saara species. Population genetic analyses shows signals of demographic expansions at the beginning of the Holocene for S. loricata. Our results support the hypothesis that the Zagros Mountains act as a barrier for gene flow and Quaternary climatic oscillations affected intraspecific genetic divergences of S. loricata and S. asmussi.