The origin of the Papua New Guinea tsunami that killed over 2100 people on 17 July 1998 has remained controversial, as dislocation sources based on the parent earthquake fail to model its extreme run–up amplitude. The generation of tsunamis by submarine mass failure had been considered a rare phenomenon which had aroused virtually no attention in terms of tsunami hazard mitigation. We report on recently acquired high–resolution seismic reflection data which yield new images of a large underwater slump, coincident with photographic and bathymetric evidence of the same feature, suspected of having generated the tsunami. T–phase records from an unblocked hydrophone at Wake Island provide new evidence for the timing of the slump. By merging geological data with hydrodynamic modelling, we reproduce the observed tsunami amplitude and timing in a manner consistent with eyewitness accounts. Submarine mass failure is predicted based on fundamental geological and geotechnical information.

Case studies of landslide tsunamis require integration of marine geology data and interpretations into numerical simulations of tsunami attack. Many landslide tsunami generation and propagation models have been proposed in recent time, further motivated by the 1998 Papua New Guinea event. However, few of these models have proven capable of integrating the best available marine geology data and interpretations into successful case studies that reproduce all available tsunami observations and records. We show that nonlinear and dispersive tsunami propagation models may be necessary for many landslide tsunami case studies. GEOWAVE is a comprehensive tsunami simulation model formed in part by combining the Tsunami Open and Progressive Initial Conditions System (TOPICS) with the fully non-linear Boussinesq water wave model FUNWAVE. TOPICS uses curve fits of numerical results from a fully nonlinear potential flow model to provide approximate landslide tsunami sources for tsunami propagation models, based on marine geology data and interpretations. In this work, we validate GEOWAVE with successful case studies of the 1946 Unimak, Alaska, the 1994 Skagway, Alaska, and the 1998 Papua New Guinea events. GEOWAVE simulates accurate runup and inundation at the same time, with no additional user interference or effort, using a slot technique. Wave breaking, if it occurs during shoaling or runup, is also accounted for with a dissipative breaking model acting on the wave front. The success of our case studies depends on the combination of accurate tsunami sources and an advanced tsunami propagation and inundation model.

On Dec. 22, 2018, at approximately 20:55–57 local time, Anak Krakatau volcano, located in the Sunda Straits of Indonesia, experienced a major lateral collapse during a period of eruptive activity that began in June. The collapse discharged volcaniclastic material into the 250 m deep caldera southwest of the volcano, which generated a tsunami with runups of up to 13 m on the adjacent coasts of Sumatra and Java. The tsunami caused at least 437 fatalities, the greatest number from a volcanically-induced tsunami since the catastrophic explosive eruption of Krakatau in 1883 and the sector collapse of Ritter Island in 1888. For the first time in over 100 years, the 2018 Anak Krakatau event provides an opportunity to study a major volcanically-generated tsunami that caused widespread loss of life and significant damage. Here, we present numerical simulations of the tsunami, with state-of the-art numerical models, based on a combined landslide-source and bathymetric dataset. We constrain the geometry and magnitude of the landslide source through analyses of pre- and post-event satellite images and aerial photography, which demonstrate that the primary landslide scar bisected the Anak Krakatau volcano, cutting behind the central vent and removing 50% of its subaerial extent. Estimated submarine collapse geometries result in a primary landslide volume range of 0.22–0.30 km³, which is used to initialize a tsunami generation and propagation model with two different landslide rheologies (granular and fluid). Observations of a single tsunami, with no subsequent waves, are consistent with our interpretation of landslide failure in a rapid, single phase of movement rather than a more piecemeal process, generating a tsunami which reached nearby coastlines within ~30 minutes. Both modelled rheologies successfully reproduce observed tsunami characteristics from post-event field survey results, tide gauge records, and eyewitness reports, suggesting our estimated landslide volume range is appropriate. This event highlights the significant hazard posed by relatively small-scale lateral volcanic collapses, which can occur en-masse, without any precursory signals, and are an efficient and unpredictable tsunami source. Our successful simulations demonstrate that current numerical models can accurately forecast tsunami hazards from these events. In cases such as Anak Krakatau’s, the absence of precursory warning signals together with the short travel time following tsunami initiation present a major challenge for mitigating tsunami coastal impact.

The Papua New Guinea (PNG) tsunami of July 1998 was a seminal event because it demonstrated that relatively small and relatively deepwater Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs) can cause devastating local tsunamis that strike without warning. There is a comprehensive data set that proves this event was caused by a submarine slump. Yet, the source of the tsunami has remained controversial. This controversy is attributed to several causes. Before the PNG event, it was questionable as to whether SMFs could cause devastating tsunamis. As a result, only limited modelling of SMFs as tsunami sources had been undertaken, and these excluded slumps. The results of these models were that SMFs in general were not considered to be a potential source of catastrophic tsunamis. To effectively model a SMF requires fairly detailed geological data, and these too had been lacking. In addition, qualitative data, such as evidence from survivors, tended to be disregarded in assessing alternative tsunami sources. The use of marine geological data to identify areas of recent submarine failure was not widely applied. The disastrous loss of life caused by the PNG tsunami resulted in a major investigation into the area offshore of the devastated coastline, with five marine expeditions taking place. This was the first time that a focussed, large-scale, international programme of marine surveying had taken place so soon after a major tsunami. It was also the first time that such a comprehensive data set became the basis for tsunami simulations. The use of marine mapping subsequently led to a larger involvement of marine geologists in the study of tsunamis, expanding the knowledge base of those studying the threat from SMF hazards. This paper provides an overview of the PNG tsunami and its impact on tsunami science. It presents revised interpretations of the slump architecture based on new seabed relief images and, using these, the most comprehensive tsunami simulation of the PNG event to date. Simulation results explain the measured runups to a high degree. The PNG tsunami has made a major impact on tsunami science. It is one of the most studied SMF tsunamis, yet it remains the only one known of its type: a slump.