For production of biopharmaceuticals in suspension cell culture, seed trains are required to increase cell number from cell thawing up to production scale. Because cultivation conditions during the seed train have a significant impact on cell performance in production scale, seed train design, monitoring, and development of optimization strategies is important. This can be facilitated by model‐assisted prediction methods, whereby the performance depends on the prediction accuracy, which can be improved by inclusion of prior process knowledge, especially when only few high‐quality data is available, and description of inference uncertainty, providing, apart from a “best fit”‐prediction, information about the probable deviation in form of a prediction interval. This contribution illustrates the application of Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian updating for seed train prediction to an industrial Chinese hamster ovarian cell culture process, coppled with a mechanistic model. It is shown in which way prior knowledge as well as input uncertainty (e.g., concerning measurements) can be included and be propagated to predictive uncertainty. The impact of available information on prediction accuracy was investigated. It has been shown that through integration of new data by the Bayesian updating method, process variability (i.e., batch‐to‐batch) could be considered. The implementation was realized using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

Development and optimization of biopharmaceutical production processes with cell cultures is cost- and time-consuming and often performed rather empirically. Efficient optimization of multiple objectives such as process time, viable cell density, number of operating steps & cultivation scales, required medium, amount of product as well as product quality depicts a promising approach. This contribution presents a workflow which couples uncertainty-based upstream simulation and Bayes optimization using Gaussian processes. Its application is demonstrated in a simulation case study for a relevant industrial task in process development, the design of a robust cell culture expansion process (seed train), meaning that despite uncertainties and variabilities concerning cell growth, low variations of viable cell density during the seed train are obtained. Compared to a non-optimized reference seed train, the optimized process showed much lower deviation rates regarding viable cell densities (<10% instead of 41.7%) using five or four shake flask scales and seed train duration could be reduced by 56 h from 576 h to 520 h. Overall, it is shown that applying Bayes optimization allows for optimization of a multi-objective optimization function with several optimizable input variables and under a considerable amount of constraints with a low computational effort. This approach provides the potential to be used in the form of a decision tool, e.g., for the choice of an optimal and robust seed train design or for further optimization tasks within process development.

Bioprocess modeling has become a useful tool for prediction of the process future with the aim to deduce operating decisions (e.g. transfer or feeds). Due to variabilities, which often occur between and within batches, updating (re-estimation) of model parameters is required at certain time intervals (dynamic parameter estimation) to obtain reliable predictions. This can be challenging in the presence of low sampling frequencies (e.g. every 24 h), different consecutive scales and large measurement errors, as in the case of cell culture seed trains. This contribution presents an iterative learning workflow which generates and incorporates knowledge concerning cell growth during the process by using a moving horizon estimation (MHE) approach for updating of model parameters. This estimation technique is compared to a classical weighted least squares estimation (WLSE) approach in the context of model updating over three consecutive cultivation scales (40–2160 L) of an industrial cell culture seed train. Both techniques were investigated regarding robustness concerning the aforementioned challenges and the required amount of experimental data (estimation horizon). It is shown how the proposed MHE can deal with the aforementioned difficulties by the integration of prior knowledge, even if only data at two sampling points are available, outperforming the classical WLSE approach. This workflow allows to adequately integrate current process behavior into the model and can therefore be a suitable component of a digital twin.

For the manufacturing of complex biopharmaceuticals using bioreactors with cultivated mammalian cells, high product concentration is an important objective. The phenotype of the cells in a reactor plays an important role. Are clonal cell populations showing high cell-specific growth rates more favorable than cell lines with higher cell-specific productivities or vice versa? Five clonal Chinese hamster ovary cell populations were analyzed based on the data of a 3-month-stability study. We adapted a mechanistic cell culture model to the experimental data of one such clonally derived cell population. Uncertainties and prior knowledge concerning model parameters were considered using Bayesian parameter estimations. This model was used then to define an inoculum train protocol. Based on this, we subsequently simulated the impacts of differences in growth rates (±10%) and production rates (±10% and ±50%) on the overall cultivation time, including making the inoculum train cultures; the final production phase, the volumetric titer in that bioreactor and the ratio of both, defined as overall process productivity. We showed thus unequivocally that growth rates have a higher impact (up to three times) on overall process productivity and for product output per year, whereas cells with higher productivity can potentially generate higher product concentrations in the production vessel.