In 2011, WHO member states signed up to the 25 × 25 initiative, a plan to cut mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 25% by 2025. However, socioeconomic factors influencing non-communicable diseases have not been included in the plan. In this study, we aimed to compare the contribution of socioeconomic status to mortality and years-of-life-lost with that of the 25 × 25 conventional risk factors. We did a multicohort study and meta-analysis with individual-level data from 48 independent prospective cohort studies with information about socioeconomic status, indexed by occupational position, 25 × 25 risk factors (high alcohol intake, physical inactivity, current smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity), and mortality, for a total population of 1 751 479 (54% women) from seven high-income WHO member countries. We estimated the association of socioeconomic status and the 25 × 25 risk factors with all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality by calculating minimally adjusted and mutually adjusted hazard ratios [HR] and 95% CIs. We also estimated the population attributable fraction and the years of life lost due to suboptimal risk factors. During 26·6 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 13·3 years [SD 6·4 years]), 310 277 participants died. HR for the 25 × 25 risk factors and mortality varied between 1·04 (95% CI 0·98-1·11) for obesity in men and 2 ·17 (2·06-2·29) for current smoking in men. Participants with low socioeconomic status had greater mortality compared with those with high socioeconomic status (HR 1·42, 95% CI 1·38-1·45 for men; 1·34, 1·28-1·39 for women); this association remained significant in mutually adjusted models that included the 25 × 25 factors (HR 1·26, 1·21-1·32, men and women combined). The population attributable fraction was highest for smoking, followed by physical inactivity then socioeconomic status. Low socioeconomic status was associated with a 2·1-year reduction in life expectancy between ages 40 and 85 years, the corresponding years-of-life-lost were 0·5 years for high alcohol intake, 0·7 years for obesity, 3·9 years for diabetes, 1·6 years for hypertension, 2·4 years for physical inactivity, and 4·8 years for current smoking. Socioeconomic circumstances, in addition to the 25 × 25 factors, should be targeted by local and global health strategies and health risk surveillance to reduce mortality. European Commission, Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Swiss National Science Foundation, the Medical Research Council, NordForsk, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology.

Cumulative meta-analyses are used to evaluate the extent to which further studies are needed to confirm or refute a hypothesis. We used this approach to assess observational evidence on systemic inflammation in individuals with major depressive disorder. We identified 58 studies of four common inflammatory markers in a literature search of PubMed, Embase and PsychInfo databases in May 2014. Pooled data from the earliest eight studies already showed an association between interleukin-6 concentrations and major depression; 23 more recent studies confirmed this finding (d=0.54, p<0.0001). A significant association between C-reactive protein levels and major depression was noted after 14 studies and this did not change after addition of six more studies (d=0.47, p<0.0001). For these two inflammatory markers, there was moderate heterogeneity in study-specific estimates, subgroup differences were small, and publication bias appeared to be an unlikely explanation for the findings. Sensitivity analyses including only high-quality studies and subjects free of antidepressant medication further verified the associations. While there was a link between tumour necrosis factor-α levels and major depression (d=0.40, p=0.002), the cumulative effect remained uncertain due to the extensive heterogeneity in study-specific estimates and inconsistencies between subgroups. No evidence was found for the association between interleukin-1β levels and major depression (d=-0.05, p=0.86). In conclusion, this cumulative meta-analysis confirmed higher mean levels of interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein in patients with major depression compared to non-depressed controls. No consistent association between tumour necrosis factor-α, interleukin-1β and major depression was observed. Future studies should clarify the specific immune mechanisms involved as well as continue testing anti-inflammatory therapies in patients suffering from major depression.

Rapidly declining biodiversity may be a contributing factor to another global megatrend—the rapidly increasing prevalence of allergies and other chronic inflammatory diseases among urban populations worldwide. According to the “biodiversity hypothesis,” reduced contact of people with natural environmental features and biodiversity may adversely affect the human commensal microbiota and its immunomodulatory capacity. Analyzing atopic sensitization (i.e., allergic disposition) in a random sample of adolescents living in a heterogeneous region of 100 × 150 km, we show that environmental biodiversity in the surroundings of the study subjects’ homes influenced the composition of the bacterial classes on their skin. Compared with healthy individuals, atopic individuals had lower environmental biodiversity in the surroundings of their homes and significantly lower generic diversity of gammaproteobacteria on their skin. The functional role of the Gram-negative gammaproteobacteria is supported by in vitro measurements of expression of IL-10, a key anti-inflammatory cytokine in immunologic tolerance, in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. In healthy, but not in atopic, individuals, IL-10 expression was positively correlated with the abundance of the gammaproteobacterial genus Acinetobacter on the skin. These results raise fundamental questions about the consequences of biodiversity loss for both allergic conditions and public health in general.