As the sample size in cancer genome studies increases, the list of genes identified as significantly mutated is likely to include more false positives; here, this problem is identified as stemming largely from mutation heterogeneity, and a new analytical methodology designed to overcome this problem is described. Cancer genomic approaches have identified scores of genes responsible for the initiation and progression of cancer. But as the sample sizes increase, the list of putatively significant genes identified by current analytical methods continues to grow and is likely to include many false positives. This study shows that this situation stems largely from mutational heterogeneity and presents a novel methodology, MutSigCV, that overcomes the problem by incorporating mutational heterogeneity into the analysis. Application of MutSigCV to more than 3,000 tumour samples from 27 different tumour types shows that mutation frequencies vary more than 1,000-fold between extreme samples both between and within tumour types. And when applied to a data set on lung cancer, MutSigCV reduced the list of significantly mutated genes from 450 to a more manageable 11, most of them previously reported to be mutated in squamous cell lung cancer. Major international projects are underway that are aimed at creating a comprehensive catalogue of all the genes responsible for the initiation and progression of cancer1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9. These studies involve the sequencing of matched tumour–normal samples followed by mathematical analysis to identify those genes in which mutations occur more frequently than expected by random chance. Here we describe a fundamental problem with cancer genome studies: as the sample size increases, the list of putatively significant genes produced by current analytical methods burgeons into the hundreds. The list includes many implausible genes (such as those encoding olfactory receptors and the muscle protein titin), suggesting extensive false-positive findings that overshadow true driver events. We show that this problem stems largely from mutational heterogeneity and provide a novel analytical methodology, MutSigCV, for resolving the problem. We apply MutSigCV to exome sequences from 3,083 tumour–normal pairs and discover extraordinary variation in mutation frequency and spectrum within cancer types, which sheds light on mutational processes and disease aetiology, and in mutation frequency across the genome, which is strongly correlated with DNA replication timing and also with transcriptional activity. By incorporating mutational heterogeneity into the analyses, MutSigCV is able to eliminate most of the apparent artefactual findings and enable the identification of genes truly associated with cancer.

Somatic mutations in cancer genomes are caused by multiple mutational processes, each of which generates a characteristic mutational signature¹. Here, as part of the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium² of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), we characterized mutational signatures using 84,729,690 somatic mutations from 4,645 whole-genome and 19,184 exome sequences that encompass most types of cancer. We identified 49 single-base-substitution, 11 doublet-base-substitution, 4 clustered-base-substitution and 17 small insertion-and-deletion signatures. The substantial size of our dataset, compared with previous analyses^3–15, enabled the discovery of new signatures, the separation of overlapping signatures and the decomposition of signatures into components that may represent associated—but distinct—DNA damage, repair and/or replication mechanisms. By estimating the contribution of each signature to the mutational catalogues of individual cancer genomes, we revealed associations of signatures to exogenous or endogenous exposures, as well as to defective DNA-maintenance processes. However, many signatures are of unknown cause. This analysis provides a systematic perspective on the repertoire of mutational processes that contribute to the development of human cancer.

Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale^1–3. Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4–5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter⁴; identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation^5,6; analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution⁷; describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity^8,9; and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes^8,10–18.