The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history within a series of magnetic storms caused by extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejections from a large and complex active region that emerged on the solar disk. In this article, we study the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source sunspot active region and visual aurorae and compare this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of their auroral spatial evolution. Sunspot drawings by Schwabe, Secchi, and Carrington describe the position and morphology of the source active region at that time. Visual auroral reports from the Russian Empire, Iberia, Ireland, Oceania, and Japan fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revise the time series of auroral visibility in middle to low magnetic latitudes. The reconstructed time series is compared with magnetic measurements and shows the correspondence between low‐latitude to mid‐latitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. The spatial evolution of the auroral oval is compared with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity and contextualizes the Carrington event, as one of the most extreme space weather events, but likely not unique.
We investigate satellite orbital drag effects at low‐Earth orbit associated with thermosphere heating during magnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections. CHAllenge Mini‐satellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) neutral density data are used to compute orbital drag. Storm‐to‐quiet density comparisons are performed with background densities obtained by the Jacchia‐Bowman 2008 (JB2008) empirical model. Our storms are grouped in different categories regarding their intensities as indicated by minimum values of the SYM‐H index. We then perform superposed epoch analyses with storm main phase onset as zero epoch time. In general, we find that orbital drag effects are larger for CHAMP (lower altitudes) in comparison to GRACE (higher altitudes). Results show that storm time drag effects manifest first at high latitudes, but for extreme storms, particularly observed by GRACE, stronger orbital drag effects occur during early main phase at low/equatorial latitudes, probably due to heating propagation from high latitudes. We find that storm time orbital decay along the satellites' path generally increases with storm intensity, being stronger and faster for the most extreme events. For these events, orbital drag effects decrease faster probably due to elevated cooling effects caused by nitric oxide, which introduce modeled density uncertainties during storm recovery phase. Errors associated with total orbit decay introduced by JB2008 are generally the largest for the strongest storms and increase during storm times, particular during recovery phases. We discuss the implication of these uncertainties for the prediction of collision between space objects at low‐Earth orbit during magnetic storms.
The occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) poses serious threats to modern technological infrastructure. Large GICs result from sharp variations of the geomagnetic field (dB/dt) caused by changes of large‐scale magnetospheric and ionospheric currents. Intense dB/dt perturbations are known to occur often in high‐latitude regions as a result of storm time substorms. Magnetospheric compressions usually caused by interplanetary shocks increase the magnetopause current leading to dB/dt perturbations more evident in midlatitude to low‐latitude regions, while they increase the equatorial electrojet current leading to dB/dt perturbations in dayside equatorial regions. We investigate the effects of shock impact angles and speeds on the subsequent dB/dt perturbations with a database of 547 shocks observed at the L1 point. By adopting the threshold of dB/dt = 100 nT/min, identified as a risk factor to power systems, we find that dB/dt generally surpasses this threshold when following impacts of high‐speed and nearly frontal shocks in dayside high‐latitude locations. The same trend occurs at lower latitudes and for all nightside events but with fewer high‐risk events. Particularly, we found nine events in equatorial locations with dB/dt > 100 nT/min. All events were caused by high‐speed and nearly frontal shock impacts and were observed by stations located around noon local time. These high‐risk perturbations were caused by sudden strong and symmetric magnetospheric compressions, more effectively intensifying the equatorial electrojet current, leading to sharp dB/dt perturbations. We suggest that these results may provide insights for GIC forecasting aiming at preventing degradation of power systems due to GICs.
11 May 2015 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
We present a survey of interplanetary (IP) shocks using Wind and ACE satellite data from January 1995 to December 2013 to study how IP shock geoeffectiveness is controlled by IP shock impact angles. A shock list covering one and a half solar cycle is compiled. The yearly number of IP shocks is found to correlate well with the monthly sunspot number. We use data from SuperMAG, a large chain with more than 300 geomagnetic stations, to study geoeffectiveness triggered by IP shocks. The SuperMAG SML index, an enhanced version of the familiar AL index, is used in our statistical analysis. The jumps of the SML index triggered by IP shock impacts on the Earth's magnetosphere are investigated in terms of IP shock orientation and speed. We find that, in general, strong (high speed) and almost frontal (small impact angle) shocks are more geoeffective than inclined shocks with low speed. The strongest correlation (correlation coefficient R = 0.78) occurs for fixed IP shock speed and for varied IP shock impact angle. We attribute this result, predicted previously with simulations, to the fact that frontal shocks compress the magnetosphere symmetrically from all sides, which is a favorable condition for the release of magnetic energy stored in the magnetotail, which in turn can produce moderate to strong auroral substorms, which are then observed by ground‐based magnetometers.
26 October 2017 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics