This study quantitatively analyzes the economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis on Korea and other major nations using the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Based on the GTAP9a database, we created three scenarios that differed in the severity of the impact of COVID-19, divided the economic shocks witnessed in each scenario into three stages, and applied them at varying degrees to six regions and 10 industry sectors. The results revealed an increase in investments and a decrease in GDP, income, production, and exports, with private household expenditure and export value showing the largest declines in all regions. Under Scenario BA, the export value of the tourism industry decreased by approximately 28%, and private household expenditure on tourism industry imports declined by 33.4% on average across all regions. Conversely, government expenditure increased following the economic recession and increased tax revenue. The results showed similar trends across regions and sectors, with only slight variances according to each region’s economic structural characteristics. By shedding light on proposals and approaches to overcome the global economic crisis amid the ongoing pandemic, this study provides baseline data for devising more practical, detailed response plans and policy directions for potential future calamities.
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Growing concern about particulate matter (PM2.5) pressures Korea to reduce the health risks associated with its high dependency on fossil fuels. The Korean economy relies heavily on large thermal power plants—a major source of PM2.5 emissions. Although air quality regulations can negatively impact local economies, the Korean government announced two strict air quality mitigation policies in 2019. We develop a regional static computable general equilibrium model to simulate the economic and environmental impacts of these polices under alternative hypothetical scenarios. We separate two regions, Chungcheongnam-do, the most polluted region, and the rest of the country, in our model. As policy options, we introduce a regional development tax and a tradable market for PM emission permits, similar to an air pollution tax and a carbon permits market, respectively. The results show that allowing higher tax rates and a tradable permits market gives the optimal combination, with the PM2.5 emissions reduced by 2.35% without sacrificing economic growth. Since alternative options present, for example, a 0.04% loss of gross domestic product to reduce PM emissions by the same amount, our results here may present a new policy paradigm for managing air pollutants such as PM2.5.
In Korea, multiple efforts, including subsidies to energy industries, have been made to increase renewable energy use and strengthen the competitiveness of renewable energy industries. Ironically, a considerable number of subsidies have also been provided for fossil fuels, drawing criticism both within Korea and overseas that these subsidies increase not only fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but also energy market distortion. Thus, the Korean government announced a plan to discontinue some fossil fuel subsidies in 2020. Based on Korea’s policy orientation to expand renewable energy and strengthen its competitiveness, various scenarios to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and increase renewable energy subsidies can be examined. This study used the computable general equilibrium model to subdivide the energy sector and analyze the influence of changes in subsidies on the Korean economy and CO2 emissions based on three scenarios. The results show that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies causes a significant reduction in domestic CO2 emissions by −6.9 to −8.5%, depending on our scenarios. Implementing energy policy in Korea may have minimum impacts on its economy when fossil fuel subsidies transfer to renewable energy industries. The real gross domestic product could be only decreased by −0.04 to −0.14%.
Ecological river restoration projects aim to revitalize healthy and self-sustaining river systems that can provide irreplaceable benefits to human society. Cheonggyecheon and Anyangcheon are two sites of recent river restoration projects in Korea. To assess the economic value of two rivers, count data was collected to conduct the individual travel cost method (ITCM) in this study. Five statistical models such as the Poisson, the negative binomial, the zero-truncated Poisson, the negative binomial, and negative binomial model adjusted for both truncation and endogenous stratification were used in the analysis due to the nature of count data. Empirical results showed that regressors were statistically significant and corresponded to conventional consumer theory. Since collected count data indicated over-dispersion and endogenous stratification, the adjusted Negative Binomial was selected as an optimal model to analyze the recreational value of Cheonggyecheon and Anyangcheon. Estimates of the annual economic value of two river restoration projects were approximately US $170.1 million and US $50.5 million, respectively.