Some cope better than others: Increasingly, research is revealing how organisms may, or may not, adapt to a changing climate. Understanding the limitations placed by a species's physiology can help to determine whether it has an immediate potential to deal with rapid change. Many studies have looked at physiological tolerance to climate change in fishes, with results indicating a range of responses. Dahlkeet al.conducted a meta-analysis to explore how life stage may influence a species's ability to tolerate temperature change (see the Perspective by Sunday). They found that embryos and breeding adult fishes are much more susceptible to temperature change than those in other life stages and that this factor must therefore be considered in evaluations of susceptibility.Science, this issue p.65; see also p.35

Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world’s largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO₂ emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held “below 2°C, if not 1.5°C,” as pledged by the Paris Agreement.

Amphibians and fishes play a central role in shaping the structure and function of freshwater environments. These organisms have a limited capacity to disperse across different habitats and the thermal buffer offered by freshwater systems is small. Understanding determinants and patterns of their physiological sensitivity across life history is, therefore, imperative to predicting the impacts of climate change in freshwater systems. Based on a systematic literature review including 345 experiments with 998 estimates on 96 amphibian (Anura/Caudata) and 93 freshwater fish species (Teleostei), we conducted a quantitative synthesis to explore phylogenetic, ontogenetic, and biogeographic (thermal adaptation) patterns in upper thermal tolerance (CT_max) and thermal acclimation capacity (acclimation response ratio, ARR) as well as the influence of the methodology used to assess these thermal traits using a conditional inference tree analysis. We found globally consistent patterns in CT_max and ARR, with phylogeny (taxa/order), experimental methodology, climatic origin, and life stage as significant determinants of thermal traits. The analysis demonstrated that CT_max does not primarily depend on the climatic origin but on experimental acclimation temperature and duration, and life stage. Higher acclimation temperatures and longer acclimation times led to higher CT_max values, whereby Anuran larvae revealed a higher CT_max than older life stages. The ARR of freshwater fishes was more than twice that of amphibians. Differences in ARR between life stages were not significant. In addition to phylogenetic differences, we found that ARR also depended on acclimation duration, ramping rate, and adaptation to local temperature variability. However, the amount of data on early life stages is too small, methodologically inconsistent, and phylogenetically unbalanced to identify potential life cycle bottlenecks in thermal traits. We, therefore, propose methods to improve the robustness and comparability of CT_max/ARR data across species and life stages, which is crucial for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity under climate change.

The vulnerability of fish embryos and larvae to environmental factors is often attributed to a lack of adult-like organ systems (gills) and thus insufficient homeostatic capacity. However, experimental data supporting this hypothesis are scarce. Here, by using Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as a model, the relationship between embryo vulnerability (to projected ocean acidification and warming) and homeostatic capacity was explored through parallel analyses of stage-specific mortality and in vitro activity and expression of major ion pumps (ATP-Synthase, Na+/K+-ATPase, H+-ATPase) and co-transporters (NBC1, NKCC1). Immunolocalization of these transporters was used to study ionocyte morphology in newly-hatched larvae. Treatment-related embryo mortality until hatch (+20% due to acidification and warming) occurred primarily during an early period (gastrulation) characterized by extremely low ion transport capacities. Thereafter, embryo mortality decreased in parallel with an exponential increase in activity and expression of all investigated ion transporters. Significant changes in transporter activity and expression in response to acidification (+15% activity) and warming (-30% expression) indicate some potential for short-term acclimatization, although likely associated with energetic trade-offs. Interestingly, whole-larvae enzyme capacities (supported by abundant epidermal ionocytes) reached levels similar to those previously measured in gill tissue of adult cod, suggesting that early-life stages without functional gills are better equipped in terms of ion homeostasis than previously thought. This study implies that the gastrulation period represents a critical transition from inherited (maternal) defenses to active homeostatic regulation, which facilitates enhanced resilience of later stages to environmental factors.

The identification of biological pattern is often complicated by the lack of methodologically consistent data with broad geographic coverage, especially when considering functional characteristics of organisms that differ greatly in body size and morphology. In our study (Dahlke et al. 2020), we addressed the problem of data scarcity by using different types of observational and experimental data together with statistical (phylogenetic) data imputation, and by placing our analysis into the context of a physiological concept, which provides a mechanism-based explanation for the observed pattern (ontogenetic shift in thermal tolerance of fish) and with respect to transition from sublethal to lethal thresholds. Here, we show with comparative examples that our results were not affected by the use of methodologically inconsistent data.