Background: We showed previously that subclinical low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) could be observed without immediate surgery. Patient age is an important prognostic factor of clinical papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). In this study, we investigated how patient age influences the observation of low-risk PTMC. Methods: Between 1993 and 2011, 1235 patients with low-risk PTMC chose observation without immediate surgery. They were followed periodically with ultrasound examinations. These patients were enrolled in this study. We divided them into three subsets based on age at the beginning of observation: young (<40 years), middle-aged (40–59 years), and old patients (≥60 years). Observation periods ranged from 18 to 227 months (average 75 months). Results: We set three parameters for the evaluation of PTMC progression: (i) size enlargement, (ii) novel appearance of lymph-node metastasis, and (iii) progression to clinical disease (tumor size reaching 12 mm or larger, or novel appearance of nodal metastasis). The proportion of patients with PTMC progression was lowest in the old patients and highest in the young patients. On multivariate analysis, young age was an independent predictor of PTMC progression. However, none of the 1235 patients showed distant metastasis or died of PTC during observation. Although only 51 patients (4%) underwent thyrotropin (TSH) suppression based on physician preference, the PTMC of all patients enrolled in this TSH suppression study, except one, were clinically stable. To date, 191 patients underwent surgery for various reasons after observation. None showed recurrence except for one in the residual thyroid, and none died of PTC after surgery. Conclusions: Old patients with subclinical low-risk PTMC may be the best candidates for observation. Although PTMC in young patients may be more progressive than in older patients, it might not be too late to perform surgery after subclinical PTMC has progressed to clinical disease, regardless of patient age.

Background: The incidence of papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) of the thyroid is rapidly increasing globally, making the management of PMC an important clinical issue. Excellent oncological outcomes of active surveillance for low-risk PMC have been reported previously. Here, unfavorable events following active surveillance and surgical treatment for PMC were studied. Methods: From February 2005 to August 2013, 2153 patients were diagnosed with low-risk PMC. Of these, 1179 patients chose active surveillance and 974 patients chose immediate surgery. The oncological outcomes and the incidences of unfavorable events of these groups were analyzed. Results: In the active surveillance group, 94 patients underwent surgery for various reasons; tumor enlargement and the appearance of novel lymph node metastases were the reasons in 27 (2.3%) and six patients (0.5%), respectively. One of the patients with conversion to surgery had nodal recurrence, and five patients in the immediate surgery group had a recurrence in a cervical node or unresected thyroid lobe. All of these recurrences were successfully treated. None of the patients had distant metastases, and none died of the disease. The immediate surgery group had significantly higher incidences of transient vocal cord paralysis (VCP), transient hypoparathyroidism, and permanent hypoparathyroidism than the active-surveillance group did (4.1% vs. 0.6%, p < 0.0001; 16.7% vs. 2.8%, p < 0.0001; and 1.6% vs. 0.08%, p < 0.0001, respectively). Permanent VCP occurred only in two patients (0.2%) in the immediate surgery group. The proportion of patients on L-thyroxine for supplemental or thyrotropin (TSH)-suppressive purposes was significantly larger in the immediate surgery group than in the active surveillance group (66.1% vs. 20.7%, p < 0.0001). The immediate surgery group had significantly higher incidences of postsurgical hematoma and surgical scar in the neck compared with the active surveillance group (0.5% vs. 0%, p < 0.05; and 8.0% vs. 100%, p < 0.0001, respectively). Conclusions: The oncological outcomes of the immediate surgery and active surveillance groups were similarly excellent, but the incidences of unfavorable events were definitely higher in the immediate surgery group. Thus, active surveillance is now recommended as the best choice for patients with low-risk PMC.

Papillary microcarcinoma (PMC) of the thyroid is defined as papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) measuring ≤1 cm. Many autopsy studies on subjects who died of non-thyroidal diseases reported latent small thyroid carcinoma in up to 5.2% of the subjects. A mass screening study for thyroid cancer in Japanese adult women detected small thyroid cancer in 3.5% of the examinees. This incidence was close to the incidence of latent thyroid cancer and more than 1000 times the prevalence of clinical thyroid cancer in Japanese women reported at that time. The question of whether it was correct to treat such PMCs surgically then arose. In 1993, according to Dr. Miyauchi's proposal, Kuma Hospital initiated an active surveillance trial for low-risk PMC as defined in the text. In 1995, Cancer Institute Hospital in Tokyo, Japan, started a similar observation trial. The accumulated data from the trials at these two institutions strongly suggest that active surveillance (i.e., observation without immediate surgery) can be the first-line management for low-risk PMC. Although our data showed that young age and pregnancy might be risk factors of disease progression, we think that these patients can also be candidates for active surveillance, because all of the patients who showed progression signs were treated successfully with a rescue surgery, and none of them died of PTC. In this review, we summarize the data regarding the active surveillance of low-risk PMC as support for physicians and institutions that are considering adopting this strategy.

Background: Detectable serum thyroglobulin (Tg) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) after total thyroidectomy implies unsuccessful surgery, indicating a high risk of recurrence. Serum Tg kinetics in such patients have not been extensively studied. We studied serum Tg kinetics in patients with suppressed serum thyrotropin levels and undetectable anti-Tg antibody to minimize the effects of these factors on Tg values, and evaluated the relationship of prognosis to the serum Tg doubling-time. Methods: Between January 1998 and December 2004, 1515 patients with PTC underwent total thyroidectomy in Kuma Hospital. After excluding patients with other thyroid cancers and those positive tests for anti-Tg antibody, there were 426 patients with 4 or more serum Tg measurements at a time that serum thyrotropin concentrations were <0.1 mIU/L. These patients were selected for the present retrospective study. Tg doubling-time was computed using Tg values measured during routine follow-up. Patients were followed for a mean of 88.1 months and a median of 86.7 months. Results: Of the 426 patients, 137 patients had 4 or more measurements that revealed detectable Tg in serum Tg. The Tg doubling-time (DT), calculated using all available data, varied widely, and were grouped into those that were <1 year (17 patients), those that were 1–3 years (21 patients), and those that were ≥3 years (30 patients), as well as those with a negative value due to decrease in serum Tg (69 patients). There were also 88 patients who had three or fewer serum Tg measurements that showed detectable Tg levels, as well as 201 patients in whom serum Tg measurements were below the lower limit of detection. In the group of patients with a Tg-DT of <1 year the cause specific survival at 10 years was 50%, and in the group with a Tg-DT of 1–3 years it was 95%. In all other groups it was 100%. Many classical prognostic factors (TNM stage, age, and gender) as well as the Tg-DT were significant indicators of survival by univariate analysis, but Tg-DT remained the only independent predictor by multivariate analysis. Tg-DT was also the only independent predictor of distant metastases and loco-regional recurrence on multivariate analysis. Tg-DT calculated using only the first four data [Tg-DT (first four data)] was also the only independent predictor of survival, distant metastases, and loco-regional recurrence on multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Tg-DT (all data or first four data) is a very strong prognostic predictor superior to the classical prognostic factors in patients with PTC.

Background: The incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing globally. This is mainly due to the increase in the detection of small papillary carcinomas, including papillary microcarcinomas (PMC) 1 cm or smaller. It was suggested recently that PMCs are overdiagnosed and overtreated.Methods: In 1993, the author proposed a clinical trial to compare surgery and observation for low‐risk PMC at doctors’ meeting in Kuma Hospital, which was approved and the trial started in the same year. Patients choose immediate surgery or observation. This paper shares our 22‐year experience with the active surveillance of more than 2000 patients with low‐risk PMC and compares the outcomes of immediate surgery with that of active observation.Results: The oncological outcomes of these management groups were similarly excellent. In our active surveillance trial on 1235 patients, 8 % of patients showed tumor enlargement by 3 mm or more at 10 years of observation, and 3.8 % of the patients showed novel appearance of lymph node metastasis at 10 years. Patients 40 years or younger tended to show progression of the disease. Patients with these slight progressions of the disease were successfully treated with a rescue surgery. None of the patients in both study groups died of the disease. However, incidences of unfavorable events, such as temporary vocal cord paralysis (VCP) and temporary and permanent hypoparathyroidism, were significantly higher in the immediate surgery group than in the observation group (4.1 vs. 0.6 %, p < 0.0001; 16.7 vs. 2.8 %, p < 0.0001; and 1.6 vs. 0.08 %, p < 0.0001, respectively). Permanent VCP occurred in two of the surgery group.Conclusions: As a result, although we still offer two options, immediate surgery or observation, to patients with low‐risk PMC at Kuma Hospital, we now strongly recommend observation as the best choice.