A total of 14 chemical transport models (CTMs) participated in the first topic of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III. These model results are compared with each other and an extensive set of measurements, aiming to evaluate the current CTMs' ability in simulating aerosol concentrations, to document the similarities and differences among model performance, and to reveal the characteristics of aerosol components in large cities over East Asia. In general, these CTMs can well reproduce the spatial–temporal distributions of aerosols in East Asia during the year 2010. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows better performance than most single-model predictions, with correlation coefficients (between MMEM and measurements) ranging from 0.65 (nitrate, ${\mathrm{NO}}_{\mathrm{3}}^{-}$ ) to 0.83 (PM_2.5). The concentrations of black carbon (BC), sulfate (${\mathrm{SO}}_{\mathrm{4}}^{\mathrm{2}-}$ ), and PM₁₀ are underestimated by MMEM, with normalized mean biases (NMBs) of −17.0 %, −19.1 %, and −32.6 %, respectively. Positive biases are simulated for ${\mathrm{NO}}_{\mathrm{3}}^{-}$ (NMB = 4.9 %), ammonium (${\mathrm{NH}}_{\mathrm{4}}^{+}$ ) (NMB = 14.0 %), and PM_2.5 (NMB = 4.4 %). In comparison with the statistics calculated from MICS-Asia phase II, frequent updates of chemical mechanisms in CTMs during recent years make the intermodel variability of simulated aerosol concentrations smaller, and better performance can be found in reproducing the temporal variations of observations. However, a large variation (about a factor of 2) in the ratios of SNA (sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium) to PM_2.5 is calculated among participant models. A more intense secondary formation of ${\mathrm{SO}}_{\mathrm{4}}^{\mathrm{2}-}$ is simulated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) models, because of the higher SOR (sulfur oxidation ratio) than other models (0.51 versus 0.39). The NOR (nitric oxidation ratio) calculated by all CTMs has larger values (∼0.20) than the observations, indicating that overmuch ${\mathrm{NO}}_{\mathrm{3}}^{-}$ is simulated by current models. NH₃-limited condition (the mole ratio of ammonium to sulfate and nitrate is smaller than 1) can be successfully reproduced by all participant models, which indicates that a small reduction in ammonia may improve the air quality. A large coefficient of variation (CV > 1.0) is calculated for simulated coarse particles, especially over arid and semi-arid regions, which means that current CTMs have difficulty producing similar dust emissions by using different dust schemes. According to the simulation results of MMEM in six large Asian cities, different air-pollution control plans should be taken due to their different major air pollutants in different seasons. The MICS-Asia project gives an opportunity to discuss the similarities and differences of simulation results among CTMs in East Asian applications. In order to acquire a better understanding of aerosol properties and their impacts, more experiments should be designed to reduce the diversities among air quality models.

Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases) to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10 % or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8) over the Eastern United States. For PM_2.5, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM_2.5 reductions. The annual average 24-h PM_2.5 of the future-year condition was found to be about 40 % lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60 % of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO₄ and NO₃ particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10 % or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM_2.5 by 5 % or 1.0 μg m⁻³ in the Southeast region.

Concerns have been raised about the possible connections between the local and regional photochemical problem and global warming. The current study assesses the trend of ozone in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in South China and investigates the interannual changes of sensitivity of ozone to air temperature, as well as the trends in regional precursors. Results reveal, at the three monitoring sites from the mid-1990s to 2010, an increase in the mean ozone concentrations from 1.0 to 1.6 µg m−3 per year. The increase occurred in all seasons, with the highest rate in autumn. This is consistent with trends and temperature anomalies in the region. The increase in the sensitivity of ozone to temperature is clearly evident from the correlation between ozone (OMI [Ozone Monitoring Instrument] column amount) and surface air temperature (from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder) displayed in the correlation maps for the PRD during the prominently high ozone period of July–September. It is observed to have i...