Background: The global burden of lung cancer (LC) is increasing. Quantitative projections of the future LC burden in different world regions could help optimize the allocation of resources and provide a benchmark for evaluating LC prevention and control interventions. Objective: We aimed to predict the future incidence of LC in 40 countries by 2035, with an emphasis on country- and sex-specific disparities. Methods: Data on LC incidence from 1978 to 2012 were extracted from 126 cancer registries of 40 countries in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes V-XI and used for the projection. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years and the number of incident cases were predicted through 2035, using the NORDPRED age-period-cohort model. Results: Global ASRs of the 40 studied countries were predicted to decrease by 23% (8.2/35.8) among males, from 35.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2010 to 27.6 in 2035, and increase by 2% (0.3/16.8) among females, from 16.8 in 2010 to 17.1 in 2035. The ASRs of LC among females are projected to continue increasing dramatically in most countries by 2035, with peaks after the 2020s in most European, Eastern Asian, and Oceanian countries, whereas the ASRs among males will continue to decline in almost all countries. The ASRs among females are predicted to almost reach those among males in Ireland, Norway, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, the United States, and New Zealand in 2025 and in Slovenia in 2035 and even surpass those among males in Denmark in 2020 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2025. In 2035, the highest ASRs are projected to occur among males in Belarus (49.3) and among females in Denmark (36.8). The number of new cases in 40 countries is predicted to increase by 65.32% (858,000/1,314,000), from 1.31 million in 2010 to 2.17 million in 2035. China will have the largest number of new cases. Conclusions: LC incidence is expected to continue to increase through 2035 in most countries, making LC a major public health challenge worldwide. The ongoing transition in the epidemiology of LC highlights the need for resource redistribution and improved LC control measures to reduce future LC burden worldwide.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used despite their risk of gastrointestinal bleeding or cardiovascular events. We report the profile of people taking NSAIDs in Spain, and we include demographic factors, health-related behaviours and cardiovascular disease history. Four thousand sixtyparticipants were selected using a pseudorandom number list from Family Practice lists in 12 Spanish provinces. They completed a face-to-face computerized interview on their NSAID consumption, demographic characteristics, body mass index, alcohol and tobacco consumption and medical history. In addition, participants completed a self-administered food-frequency and alcohol consumption questionnaire. Factors associated with ever and current NSAID consumption were identified by logistic regression. Women consumed more non-aspirin NSAIDs (38.8% [36.7–41.0]) than men (22.3 [20.5–24.2]), but men consumed more aspirin (11.7% [10.3–13.2]) than women (5.2% [4.3–6.3]). Consumption of non-aspirin NSAIDs decrease with age from 44.2% (39.4–49.1) in younger than 45 to 21.1% (18.3–24.2) in older than 75, but the age-pattern for aspirin usage was the opposite. Aspirin was reported by about 11% patients, as being twice as used in men (11.7%) than in women (5.2%); its consumption increased with age from 1.7% (< 45 years old) to 12.4% (≥75 years old). Aspirin was strongly associated with the presence of cardiovascular risk factors or established cardiovascular disease, reaching odds ratios of 15.2 (7.4–31.2) in women with acute coronary syndrome, 13.3 (6.2–28.3) in women with strokes and 11.1 (7.8–15.9) in men with acute coronary syndrome. Participants with cardiovascular risk factors or diseases consumed as much non-aspirin NSAID as participants without such conditions. Non-aspirin NSAIDs were more consumed by women and aspirin by men. The age patterns of aspirin and non-aspirin NSAIDs were opposite: the higher the age, the lower the non-aspirin NSAIDs usage and the higher the aspirin consumption. People with cardiovascular risk factors or diseases consumed more aspirin, but they did not decrease their non-aspirin NSAIDs usage.

Incidencia y mortalidad del cáncer de próstata en Navarra (España)

Rare cancers affect millions of people worldwide each year. However, estimating incidence or mortality rates associated with rare cancers presents important difficulties and poses new statistical methodological challenges. In this paper, we expand the collection of multivariate spatio-temporal models by introducing adaptable shared spatio-temporal components to enable a comprehensive analysis of both incidence and cancer mortality in rare cancer cases. These models allow the modulation of spatio-temporal effects between incidence and mortality, allowing for changes in their relationship over time. The new models have been implemented in INLA using r-generic constructions. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the new spatio-temporal models. Our results show that multivariate spatio-temporal models incorporating a flexible shared spatio-temporal term outperform conventional multivariate spatio-temporal models that include specific spatio-temporal effects for each health outcome. We use these models to analyze incidence and mortality data for pancreatic cancer and leukaemia among males across 142 administrative health care districts of Great Britain over a span of nine biennial periods (2002–2019).

The distribution of lip, oral cavity, and pharynx (LOCP) cancer mortality rates in small domains (defined as the combination of province, age group, and gender) remains unknown in Spain. As many of the LOCP risk factors are preventable, specific prevention programmes could be implemented but this requires a clear specification of the target population. This paper provides an in-depth description of LOCP mortality rates by province, age group and gender, giving a complete overview of the disease. This study also presents a methodological challenge. As the number of LOCP cancer cases in small domains (province, age groups and gender) is scarce, univariate spatial models do not provide reliable results or are even impossible to fit. In view of the close link between LOCP and lung cancer, we consider analyzing them jointly by using shared component models. These models allow information-borrowing among diseases, ultimately providing the analysis of cancer sites with few cases at a very disaggregated level. Results show that males have higher mortality rates than females and these rates increase with age. Regions located in the north of Spain show the highest LOCP cancer mortality rates.