Central Asia is one of the most challenged places, prone to suffering from various natural hazards, where seismically triggered landslides have caused severe secondary losses. Research on this problem is especially important in the cross-border Mailuu-Suu catchment in Kyrgyzstan, since it is burdened by radioactive legacy sites and frequently affected by earthquakes and landslides. To identify the landslide-prone areas and to quantify the volume of landslide (VOL), Scoops3D was selected to evaluate the slope stability throughout a digital landscape in the Mailuu-Suu catchment. By performing the limit equilibrium analysis, both of landslide susceptibility index (LSI) and VOL were estimated under five earthquake scenarios. The results show that the upstream areas were more seismically vulnerable than the downstream areas. The susceptibility level rose significantly with the increase in earthquake strength, whereas the VOL was significantly higher under the extreme earthquake scenario than under the other four scenarios. After splitting the environmental variables into sub-classes, the spatial variations of LSI and VOL became more clear: the LSI reduced with the increase in elevation, slope, annual precipitation, and distances to faults, roads, and streams, whereas the highest VOL was observed in the areas with moderate elevations, high precipitation, grasslands, and mosaic vegetation. The relative importance analysis indicated that the explanatory power reduced with the increase in earthquake level and it was significant higher for LSI than for VOL. Among nine environmental variables, the distance to faults, annual precipitation, slope, and elevation were identified as important triggers of landslides. By a simultaneous assessment of both LSI and VOL and the identification of important triggers, the proposed modelling approaches can support local decision-makers and householders to identify landslide-prone areas, further design proper landslide hazard and risk management plans and, consequently, contribute to the resolution of transboundary pollution conflicts.

Seismically triggered landslides are a major hazard and have caused severe secondary losses. This problem is especially important in the seismic prone Mailuu-Suu catchment in Kyrgyzstan, as it hosts disproportionately sensitive active or legacy uranium sites with deposited radioactive extractive wastes. These sites show a quasi-continuous release of radioactive contamination into surface waters, and especially after natural hazards, a sudden and massive input of pollutants into the surface waters is expected. However, landslides of contaminated sediments into surface waters represent a substantial exposure pathway that has not been properly addressed in the existing river basin management to date. To fill this gap, satellite imagery was massively employed to extract topography and geometric information, and the seismic Scoops3D and the one-dimensional numerical model, Hydrologic Engineering Centre, River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), were chosen to simulate the landslide-induced mass transport of total suspended solids (TSS) and natural radionuclides (Pb-210 as a proxy for modeling purposes) within the Mailuu-Suu river networks under two earthquake and two hydrological scenarios. The results show that the seismically vulnerable areas dominated in the upstream areas, and the mass of landslides increased dramatically with the increase of earthquake levels. After the landslides, the concentrations of radionuclides increased suddenly and dramatically. The peak values decreased along the longitudinal gradient of river networks, with the concentration curves becoming flat and wide in the downstream sections, and the transport speed of radionuclides decreased along the river networks. The conclusions of this study are that landslides commonly release a significant amount of pollutants with a relatively fast transport along river networks. Improved quantitative understanding of waterborne pollution dispersion across national borders will contribute to better co-ordination between governments and regulatory authorities of riparian states and, consequently, to future prevention of transnational political conflicts that have flared up in the last two decades over alleged pollution of transboundary water bodies.