This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.

Unclaimed
Benjamin Turner
Department of Agriculture, Agribusiness, and Environmental Science and King Ranch<sup>®</sup> Institute for Ranch Management, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, TX 78363, USA

Honors and Awards

The user has no records in this section


Career Timeline

The user has no records in this section.


Short Biography

The user biography is not available.
Following
Followers
Co Authors
The list of users this user is following is empty.
Following: 0 users

Feed

Journal article
Published: 16 July 2021 in Soil Systems
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Due to tightly coupled physical, chemical, and biological processes that often behave in nonlinear, counterintuitive ways, it is argued that soil is an archetype of a complex system. Unfortunately, human intuition and decision making has been shown to be inadequate when dealing with complex systems. This poses significant challenges for managers or policy makers responding to environmental externalities where soil dynamics play a central role (e.g., biogeochemical cycles) and where full ranges of outcomes result from numerous feedback processes not easily captured by reductionist approaches. In order to improve interpretation of these soil feedbacks, a dynamic systems framework is outlined (capturing feedback often excluded from investigation or left to intuition) and then applied to agroecosystem management problems related to irrigation or tillage practices that drive nutrient cycling (e.g., soil water, nitrogen, carbon, and sodium). Key soil feedbacks are captured via a variety of previously developed models simulating soil processes and their interactions. Results indicated that soil system trade-offs arising from conservation adoption (drip irrigation or no-tillage) provided reasonable supporting evidence (via compensating feedbacks) to managers justifying slow adoption of conservation practices. Modeling soils on the foundation provided in the complex systems sciences remains an area for innovations useful for improving soil system management.

ACS Style

Benjamin Turner. Soil as an Archetype of Complexity: A Systems Approach to Improve Insights, Learning, and Management of Coupled Biogeochemical Processes and Environmental Externalities. Soil Systems 2021, 5, 39 .

AMA Style

Benjamin Turner. Soil as an Archetype of Complexity: A Systems Approach to Improve Insights, Learning, and Management of Coupled Biogeochemical Processes and Environmental Externalities. Soil Systems. 2021; 5 (3):39.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin Turner. 2021. "Soil as an Archetype of Complexity: A Systems Approach to Improve Insights, Learning, and Management of Coupled Biogeochemical Processes and Environmental Externalities." Soil Systems 5, no. 3: 39.

Research paper
Published: 18 January 2021 in Systems Research and Behavioral Science
Reads 0
Downloads 0

The complexity of agricultural and natural resources (AGNR) systems continues to thwart long‐term management efforts to address root causes of problems. Unfortunately, capacity building in systems thinking and system dynamics (SD) modeling by AGNR educational programmes has not kept pace with other disciplines, stalled by accelerated specialization and disciplinary fragmentation. Here, we describe a 1‐year, interdisciplinary cohort programme aimed at SD capacity building for AGNR education. Student cohorts investigated unresolved, real‐world management problems following the SD approach. Problems included weed herbicide resistance in cultivated agriculture, land acquisition for biodiversity conservation and adoption of soil conservation practices by farmers. The fellowship process is outlined followed by descriptions of each cohort's model and insights they generated. Exit interviews illuminated valuable reflections regarding team cohesion, the role of SD in enhancing traditional graduate studies and structural adjustments to enhance future fellowship delivery. We conclude with recommendations to others interested in delivering similar programmes.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Melissa Wuellner; Erin Cortus; Steven Boot Chumbley. A multi‐university cohort model for teaching complex and interdisciplinary problem‐solving using system dynamics. Systems Research and Behavioral Science 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Melissa Wuellner, Erin Cortus, Steven Boot Chumbley. A multi‐university cohort model for teaching complex and interdisciplinary problem‐solving using system dynamics. Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Melissa Wuellner; Erin Cortus; Steven Boot Chumbley. 2021. "A multi‐university cohort model for teaching complex and interdisciplinary problem‐solving using system dynamics." Systems Research and Behavioral Science , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 13 October 2020 in Systems
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Systems involving agriculture and natural resources (AGNR) management and representing integrations of biologic, geologic, socio-economic, and climatic characteristics are incredibly complex. AGNR managers purport using a systems-oriented mental model while many observed management and policy strategies remain linear or symptom-driven. To improve AGNR professionals’ systems thinking abilities, two programs, the King Ranch® Institute for Ranch Management at Texas A&M University-Kingsville (KRIRM) and the Honors College at South Dakota State University (SDSUHC), implemented the famous Production Distribution Simulation Game (a.k.a. the Beer Game) into their programs beginning in 2003 and 2011. A Beer Game database consisting of 10 years of trials or over 270 individual players was compared to seminal work in the literature as well as to one another. We found that AGNR managers and students performed worse than players in a seminal Beer Game study. More interestingly, we found that younger players adapted more readily to inventory surpluses by reducing the order rates and effective inventories significantly when compared to older players (p < 0.10 for retailer and distributors, and p < 0.05 for wholesales and factories). We substantiated our results to those in more recent studies of age-related decision-making and in the context of common learning disabilities. Lastly, we discuss some implications of such decision-making on 21st century AGNR problems and encourage AGNR disciplines to better integrate system dynamics-based education and collaboration in order to better prepare for such complex issues.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Michael Goodman; Rick Machen; Clay Mathis; Ryan Rhoades; Barry Dunn. Results of Beer Game Trials Played by Natural Resource Managers Versus Students: Does Age Influence Ordering Decisions? Systems 2020, 8, 37 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Michael Goodman, Rick Machen, Clay Mathis, Ryan Rhoades, Barry Dunn. Results of Beer Game Trials Played by Natural Resource Managers Versus Students: Does Age Influence Ordering Decisions? Systems. 2020; 8 (4):37.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Michael Goodman; Rick Machen; Clay Mathis; Ryan Rhoades; Barry Dunn. 2020. "Results of Beer Game Trials Played by Natural Resource Managers Versus Students: Does Age Influence Ordering Decisions?" Systems 8, no. 4: 37.

Journal article
Published: 19 August 2020 in Ecological Modelling
Reads 0
Downloads 0

The use of dynamic systems models by scientists, managers, and policy-makers is becoming more common due to the increasingly complex nature of ecological and socio-economic problems. Unfortunately, most scientific training in the life sciences only includes dynamic modeling as elective, supplementary courses at a beginners-level, which is not conducive to generating the expertise needed to properly develop, test, and learn from dynamic modeling approaches and risks utilization of poor quality models and adoption of unreliable recommendations. The objective of this paper is to fill part of that gap, particularly regarding model experimentation, by summarizing key concepts in experimental design for simulation experiments and illustrating hands-on examples of experiments needed for developing a deeper understanding of complex, dynamic systems. The experiments include extreme conditions testing, sensitivity analyses of model behaviors given variation in both parameter values and graphical (table) functions, and “what-if?” experiments (e.g., counterfactual trajectories, boundary-adequacy tests, and intervention threshold experiments). Each experimental example describes the theoretical foundation of the test, illustrates its application using an ecological systems model, and increases in degree of difficulty from novice to advanced skill levels. By doing so, we demonstrate consistent, scientific means to glean valuable insights about the model's structure-behavior link, uncover any unforeseen model flaws or incorrect formulations, and enhance the confidence (validity) of the model for its intended use.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner. Model laboratories: A quick-start guide for design of simulation experiments for dynamic systems models. Ecological Modelling 2020, 434, 109246 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner. Model laboratories: A quick-start guide for design of simulation experiments for dynamic systems models. Ecological Modelling. 2020; 434 ():109246.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner. 2020. "Model laboratories: A quick-start guide for design of simulation experiments for dynamic systems models." Ecological Modelling 434, no. : 109246.

Journal article
Published: 23 July 2020 in Sustainability
Reads 0
Downloads 0

There exist common-pool resource systems where it is difficult to prevent prospective beneficiaries from receiving profits from the use or harvest of shared resources, and they are often subject to continual utilization, leading to resource degradation and economic erosion (a behavior known as the ‘tragedy of the commons’). Nigerian nomadic grazing systems currently undergoing the tragedy of the commons pose a great challenge to agrarian communities, herders and political stability throughout the country due to violent conflicts and property destruction as herders migrate in search of forage resources for livestock. We modeled these dynamics in order to better understand the Nigerian grazing lands, with the objective of identifying potential leverage points capable of reversing overgrazing-induced forage degradation, in order to ensure a sustainable livestock production sector. Model what-if experiments (crop restrictions, crop marketing and increased labor costs) were run, resulting in partial solutions that were effective only in the short-term or limited in geographic-scope. A sustainable solution should include a combination of strategies, as the impact of one strategy alone cannot effectively resolve these Nigerian grazing issues (e.g., collaboration between farmers, herdsmen and government stakeholders to increase market integration via crop market expansion while simultaneously providing forage regeneration time for grazing lands). The resulting model could be used by Nigerian policy-makers to evaluate the long-term effects of decisions which were previously unexplored.

ACS Style

Rhoda Aderinto; J. Ortega-S.; Ambrose Anoruo; Richard Machen; Benjamin Turner. Can the Tragedy of the Commons be Avoided in Common-Pool Forage Resource Systems? An Application to Small-Holder Herding in the Semi-Arid Grazing Lands of Nigeria. Sustainability 2020, 12, 5947 .

AMA Style

Rhoda Aderinto, J. Ortega-S., Ambrose Anoruo, Richard Machen, Benjamin Turner. Can the Tragedy of the Commons be Avoided in Common-Pool Forage Resource Systems? An Application to Small-Holder Herding in the Semi-Arid Grazing Lands of Nigeria. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (15):5947.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rhoda Aderinto; J. Ortega-S.; Ambrose Anoruo; Richard Machen; Benjamin Turner. 2020. "Can the Tragedy of the Commons be Avoided in Common-Pool Forage Resource Systems? An Application to Small-Holder Herding in the Semi-Arid Grazing Lands of Nigeria." Sustainability 12, no. 15: 5947.

Journal article
Published: 15 May 2020 in Ecological Modelling
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Soils form the foundation of terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the processes and functions driving ecosystem goods and services provisions that humans rely on, including agriculture. Pressing agricultural resource challenges persist, including those involving irrigation, fertilization, and salinization, due to the complex, coupled, and feedback-driven connectivity of various soil processes that are difficult to manage. Soil moisture dynamics cross-cut these processes and is a logical integration point for generating understanding and new insights for improved agroecosystem management. This paper presents an integrated soil-water-nutrient-plant interaction model (built within a system dynamics framework) with the purpose of replicating soil moisture evolution for a set of unique soils and climates, examining model performance given common irrigation (e.g., frequency and application rates) and crop management considerations (e.g., fertilization, tillage, cover cropping), and evaluating via sensitivity analysis model robustness and quantifying influential management parameters effect on core bio-physical feedbacks at the soil-level. The model has four main state variables (soil moisture, soil nitrogen, soil sodium, and plant canopy cover) that interact dynamically via feedback processes (formulated as coupled partial differential equations) between them. Exogenous variables included precipitation time-series data and required climatic parameters to determine reference (potential) evapotranspiration. The time-unit used from simulation was 1 day (time-step = 0.25) with a simulation horizon of 365 days. The model was calibrated using a variety of sources in the literature and with comparison to observed soil moisture data from four sites in Texas, USA, and evaluated statistically for accuracy (mean bias), precision, (coefficient of determination), and overall fit (Theil inequality statistics). Sensitivity analyses were conducted for a variety of hydroclimate forcing and irrigation, fertilization, and crop management decisions to examine the impacts to soil moisture evolution, soil salinity, and cropping profitability, among other variables. Calibration results showed high degrees of agreement between observed and predicted values (mean r2 = 0.67, mean bias = 0.008%). Sensitivity results demonstrated that precipitation frequency was more influential than precipitation depth in regulating soil moisture, that irrigation threshold (i.e., the soil moisture level inducing irrigation) was the variable most influential to crop profitability (which was maximized at the lowest irrigation threshold value), and that several conservation management strategies (i.e., no-till with residue management or cover cropping) improved soil moisture and crop profitability, contrary to common management perceptions. Several other tests for alternative fertilization, irrigation, and tile drain installation strategies produced results that corroborate common observations of agroecosystem management (i.e., despite environmental risks, crop profitability was enhanced). Future model extensions include expansion of the irrigation, fertilization, and crop management decision making factors to better capture how decisions that respond to economic and policy signals influence resource use and soil system dynamics. Modeling these complex, feedback driven agroecosystems processes remains an arena for future modeling innovations that will support important resource management improvements.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Srinadh Kodali. Soil system dynamics for learning about complex, feedback-driven agricultural resource problems: model development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of biophysical feedbacks. Ecological Modelling 2020, 428, 109050 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Srinadh Kodali. Soil system dynamics for learning about complex, feedback-driven agricultural resource problems: model development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of biophysical feedbacks. Ecological Modelling. 2020; 428 ():109050.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Srinadh Kodali. 2020. "Soil system dynamics for learning about complex, feedback-driven agricultural resource problems: model development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of biophysical feedbacks." Ecological Modelling 428, no. : 109050.

Journal article
Published: 22 February 2019 in Agricultural Systems
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Sustainable ranching operations require access to adequate forage reserves and suitable means to market livestock, both of which are critical determinants of adaptive capacity (defined here as the ability to manipulate stocking rate). Ranch adaptive capacity is most relevant during times of forage shortages from drought. Unfortunately for island beef production systems, traditional adaptive measures used in continental systems are unavailable, such as transporting livestock to less affected areas, importing feed resources (cost prohibitive), intensive grazing practices or stockpiling forage (since forages mature too rapidly and are generally low quality), or destocking through cull cow sales (due to limited marketing and processing capacities). Located on an island of Hawaii, the case study ranch investigated here is challenged by each of these environmental and market constraints. The ranch resides on the leeward side of its island such that it receives minimal rainfall and forage productivity is similar to semi-arid rangelands in the western United States. The ranch's livestock management problem is compounded during drought, since island slaughter capacity is limited and there is no financially feasible means of marketing and transporting culled livestock off the island. Therefore, when forage is limited, managers are forced to retain ownership of culled mature cows, who are moved into a terminal herd to await the next available harvest or shipping availability. Terminal herds occupy areas with lower quality forages to conserve the most productive pastures for higher valued calves. This backlog of cull cows creates extended periods of stress on forage resources, since grazing pressure is not relieved as drought intensifies and increases operational expenses. A simulation model was created in an effort to identify key leverage points within the ranching operation that have the greatest impact on forage availability, herd size and net income. Upon completion of the model, sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify key drivers of model behaviors and several what-if scenarios were run based on questions provided by island ranch managers. Results showed that reducing terminal herd size through increased island processing capacity would not relieve forage pressure or eliminate the backlog of terminal cull cows, although net income was improved through greater cow sales. Several follow up tests were then run to evaluate changes to internal ranch decision making, which showed that reductions in heifer retention would provide a wider array of ecological and economic benefits. The ranch's ability to manipulate heifer retention rates, rather than cull cow rates, terminal herd shipping, or island processing capacity, was shown to be the critical aspect which drives ranch adaptive capacity.

ACS Style

Ty L. Tinsley; Steven Chumbley; Clay Mathis; Richard Machen; Benjamin L. Turner. Managing cow herd dynamics in environments of limited forage productivity and livestock marketing channels: An application to semi-arid Pacific island beef production using system dynamics. Agricultural Systems 2019, 173, 78 -93.

AMA Style

Ty L. Tinsley, Steven Chumbley, Clay Mathis, Richard Machen, Benjamin L. Turner. Managing cow herd dynamics in environments of limited forage productivity and livestock marketing channels: An application to semi-arid Pacific island beef production using system dynamics. Agricultural Systems. 2019; 173 ():78-93.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ty L. Tinsley; Steven Chumbley; Clay Mathis; Richard Machen; Benjamin L. Turner. 2019. "Managing cow herd dynamics in environments of limited forage productivity and livestock marketing channels: An application to semi-arid Pacific island beef production using system dynamics." Agricultural Systems 173, no. : 78-93.

Agroecosystems
Published: 03 December 2018 in Ecosphere
Reads 0
Downloads 0

As global food demand continues to grow, private landowners and agricultural managers have increased incentives to convert grasslands to expand crop production. These conversions are increasingly occurring on marginal soils susceptible to rapid degradation, which threatens delivery of diverse bundles of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). A growing number of studies have demonstrated that previous land management decisions continue to effect current soil ecosystem functions in the long‐term (i.e., soil legacies persist after previous management has ceased). Such legacies could further alter EGS deliveries, especially in mixed‐use agroecosystems (grass and croplands) that are susceptible to large, rapid changes in land use. The objective of this work was therefore to identify potential soil legacy effects and recovery time delays after land transformation and to place those effects in the context of EGS tradeoffs. Our overall hypotheses were that soil legacies can be traced back to management's EGS prioritization, that soil legacies persist due to the nature of land use (grass versus cultivation) and the time (years) under management, and that anthropomorphic manipulation from cultivation creates specific kinds of soil legacies. Using a systems approach that integrated ecosystem indicators, physical soil data, and human dimensions, we tested our hypotheses in South Dakota (USA), along the 100th Meridian (west), where recent and rapid cultivation expansion has reached historic highs. We conducted intensive interviews of four private land managers to identify historical land transformations, current goals, and strategies employed to achieve those goals on varying sites within their operations (nine grassland sites, nine cultivated sites; n = 18). Ecosystem assessments were conducted on each site using the US interagency assessment protocol Interpreting Indicators of Rangeland Health. Field aggregate stability and soil organic matter using loss‐on‐ignition were also measured. We found that (1) soil legacies continued to be detectable up to 20 yr after land transformation; (2) producers’ personal values of EGS were directly linked to observed land uses and ecosystem ratings; and (3) opportunities for reintroducing grasses into crop rotations or crop–livestock integration could likely improve EGS delivery from converted lands while enhancing rural economic outcomes at a low‐ to no‐cost trade‐off between ecosystem functions.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Melissa Wuellner; Douglas D. Malo; Jeffrey E. Herrick; Barry H. Dunn; Roger Gates. Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions. Ecosphere 2018, 9, e02521 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Melissa Wuellner, Douglas D. Malo, Jeffrey E. Herrick, Barry H. Dunn, Roger Gates. Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions. Ecosphere. 2018; 9 (12):e02521.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Melissa Wuellner; Douglas D. Malo; Jeffrey E. Herrick; Barry H. Dunn; Roger Gates. 2018. "Ecosystem functions in mixed cropland–grassland systems influenced by soil legacies of past crop cultivation decisions." Ecosphere 9, no. 12: e02521.

Article
Published: 10 April 2018 in Water Resources Research
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Sociohydrological studies use interdisciplinary approaches to explore the complex interactions between physical and social water systems and increase our understanding of emergent and paradoxical system behaviors. The dynamics of community values and social cohesion, however, have received little attention in modeling studies due to quantification challenges. Social structures associated with community-managed irrigation systems around the world, in particular, reflect these communities' experiences with a multitude of natural and social shocks. Using the Valdez acequia (a communally-managed irrigation community in northern New Mexico) as a simulation case study, we evaluate the impact of that community's social structure in governing its responses to water availability stresses posed by climate change. Specifically, a system dynamics model (developed using insights from community stakeholders and multiple disciplines that captures biophysical, socioeconomic, and sociocultural dynamics of acequia systems) was used to generate counterfactual trajectories to explore how the community would behave with streamflow conditions expected under climate change. We found that earlier peak flows, combined with adaptive measures of shifting crop selection, allowed for greater production of higher value crops and fewer people leaving the acequia. The economic benefits were lost, however, if downstream water pressures increased. Even with significant reductions in agricultural profitability, feedbacks associated with community cohesion buffered the community's population and land parcel sizes from more detrimental impacts, indicating the community's resilience under natural and social stresses. Continued exploration of social structures is warranted to better understand these systems' responses to stress and identify possible leverage points for strengthening community resilience.

ACS Style

T. Gunda; B. L. Turner; V. C. Tidwell. The Influential Role of Sociocultural Feedbacks on Community‐Managed Irrigation System Behaviors During Times of Water Stress. Water Resources Research 2018, 54, 2697 -2714.

AMA Style

T. Gunda, B. L. Turner, V. C. Tidwell. The Influential Role of Sociocultural Feedbacks on Community‐Managed Irrigation System Behaviors During Times of Water Stress. Water Resources Research. 2018; 54 (4):2697-2714.

Chicago/Turabian Style

T. Gunda; B. L. Turner; V. C. Tidwell. 2018. "The Influential Role of Sociocultural Feedbacks on Community‐Managed Irrigation System Behaviors During Times of Water Stress." Water Resources Research 54, no. 4: 2697-2714.

Journal article
Published: 15 February 2017 in International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability
Reads 0
Downloads 0
ACS Style

B. L. Turner; M. Wuellner; T. Nichols; R. Gates; L. O. Tedeschi; B. H. Dunn. A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic, policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062). International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 2017, 15, 1 -22.

AMA Style

B. L. Turner, M. Wuellner, T. Nichols, R. Gates, L. O. Tedeschi, B. H. Dunn. A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic, policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062). International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability. 2017; 15 (2):1-22.

Chicago/Turabian Style

B. L. Turner; M. Wuellner; T. Nichols; R. Gates; L. O. Tedeschi; B. H. Dunn. 2017. "A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic, policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062)." International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability 15, no. 2: 1-22.

Review
Published: 22 November 2016 in Resources
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Contemporary issues in agriculture and natural resource management (AGNR) span a wide spectrum of challenges and scales—from global climate change to resiliency in national and regional food systems to the sustainability of livelihoods of small-holder farmers—all of which may be characterized as complex problems. With rapid development of tools and technologies over the previous half century (e.g., computer simulation), a plethora of disciplines have developed methods to address individual components of these multifaceted, complex problems, oftentimes neglecting unintended consequences to other systems. A systems thinking approach is needed to (1) address these contemporary AGNR issues given their multi- and interdisciplinary aspects; (2) utilize a holistic perspective to accommodate all of the elements of the problem; and (3) include qualitative and quantitative techniques to incorporate “soft” and “hard” elements into the analyses. System dynamics (SD) methodology is uniquely suited to investigate AGNR given their inherently complex behaviors. In this paper, we review applications of SD to AGNR and discuss the potential contributions and roles of SD in addressing emergent problems of the 21st century. We identified numerous SD cases applied to water, soil, food systems, and smallholder issues. More importantly, several case studies are shown illustrating the tradeoffs between short-term and long-term strategies and the pitfalls of relying on quick fixes to AGNR problems (known as “fixes that backfire” and “shifting the burden”, well-known, commonly occurring, systemic structures—or archetypes—observed across numerous management situations [Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline, 1st ed.; Doubleday: New York, NY, USA, 1990.]). We conclude that common attempts to alleviate AGNR problems, across continents and regardless of the type of resources involved, have suffered from reliance on short-term management strategies. To effectively address AGNR problems, longer-term thinking and strategies aimed at fundamental solutions will be needed to better identify and minimize the often delayed, and unintended, consequences arising from feedback between management interventions and AGNR systems.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Hector M. Menendez; Roger N Gates; Luis O. Tedeschi; Alberto S. Atzori. System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles. Resources 2016, 5, 40 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Hector M. Menendez, Roger N Gates, Luis O. Tedeschi, Alberto S. Atzori. System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles. Resources. 2016; 5 (4):40.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Hector M. Menendez; Roger N Gates; Luis O. Tedeschi; Alberto S. Atzori. 2016. "System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles." Resources 5, no. 4: 40.

Journal article
Published: 13 October 2016 in Sustainability
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands) and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances) embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per animal unit or percentage of normal acequia ditch seepage) which created less variable system responses but which utilized similar pathways to that of the socio-cultural processes (e.g., socio-cultural or physical parameter change → agricultural profit → time in spent in agriculture → effect on socio-cultural or physical processes). These processes also linked through acequia mutualism to create the greatest variability in system outputs compared to the remainder of tests. Results also point to the important role of community mutualism in sustaining linkages between natural and human systems that increase resilience to stressors. Future work will explore scenario development and testing, integration with upland and downstream models, and comparative analyses between acequia communities with distinct social and landscape characteristics.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Vincent Tidwell; Alexander Fernald; José A. Rivera; Sylvia Rodriguez; Steven Guldan; Carlos Ochoa; Brian Hurd; Kenneth Boykin; Andres Cibils. Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks. Sustainability 2016, 8, 1019 .

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Vincent Tidwell, Alexander Fernald, José A. Rivera, Sylvia Rodriguez, Steven Guldan, Carlos Ochoa, Brian Hurd, Kenneth Boykin, Andres Cibils. Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks. Sustainability. 2016; 8 (10):1019.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Vincent Tidwell; Alexander Fernald; José A. Rivera; Sylvia Rodriguez; Steven Guldan; Carlos Ochoa; Brian Hurd; Kenneth Boykin; Andres Cibils. 2016. "Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks." Sustainability 8, no. 10: 1019.

Journal article
Published: 04 February 2016 in Natural Resource Modeling
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Land transformation from grassland to cropland in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) has become a growing concern among many stakeholders. A growing body of work has sought to determine the amount and rate of land use change with less emphasis on the systemic structures or feedback processes of land use decisions. This paper presents the development of a system dynamics simulation model to integrate ecological, economic, and social components influencing land use decisions, including cattle ranching, cropland production, rural communities, land quality, and public policies. Evaluation indicated that the model satisfactorily predicted historical land, agricultural commodity, and rural community data from the model structure. Reference modes for key variables, including the farmland area, were characterized by a bias correction of 0.999, root mean squared error of prediction of 0.053, R2 of 0.921, and concordance correlation coefficient of 0.0959. The model was robust under extreme and varying sensitivity tests, as well as adequately predicting land use under changing system context. The model's major contributions were the inclusion of decision-making feedbacks from economic and social signals with connectivity to land quality and elasticity values that drive land transformation. Limitations include lack of spatial input and output capabilities useful for visual interfacing.

ACS Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Melissa Wuellner; Timothy Nichols; Roger Gates; Luis O. Tedeschi; Barry H. Dunn. DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING AGRICULTURALLY DRIVEN LAND TRANSFORMATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. Natural Resource Modeling 2016, 29, 179 -228.

AMA Style

Benjamin L. Turner, Melissa Wuellner, Timothy Nichols, Roger Gates, Luis O. Tedeschi, Barry H. Dunn. DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING AGRICULTURALLY DRIVEN LAND TRANSFORMATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. Natural Resource Modeling. 2016; 29 (2):179-228.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benjamin L. Turner; Melissa Wuellner; Timothy Nichols; Roger Gates; Luis O. Tedeschi; Barry H. Dunn. 2016. "DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING AGRICULTURALLY DRIVEN LAND TRANSFORMATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES." Natural Resource Modeling 29, no. 2: 179-228.