The aim of this paper is to assess the latest version of the MODIS LAI/FPAR product (MOD15A2H), namely Collection 6 (C6). We comprehensively evaluate this product through three approaches: validation with field measurements, intercomparison with other LAI/FPAR products and comparison with climate variables. Comparisons between ground measurements and C6, as well as C5 LAI/FPAR indicate: (1) MODIS LAI is closer to true LAI than effective LAI; (2) the C6 product is considerably better than C5 with RMSE decreasing from 0.80 down to 0.66; (3) both C5 and C6 products overestimate FPAR over sparsely-vegetated areas. Intercomparisons with three existing global LAI/FPAR products (GLASS, CYCLOPES and GEOV1) are carried out at site, continental and global scales. MODIS and GLASS (CYCLOPES and GEOV1) agree better with each other. This is expected because the surface reflectances, from which these products were derived, were obtained from the same instrument. Considering all biome types, the RMSE of LAI (FPAR) derived from any two products ranges between 0.36 (0.05) and 0.56 (0.09). Temporal comparisons over seven sites for the 2001–2004 period indicate that all products properly capture the seasonality in different biomes, except evergreen broadleaf forests, where infrequent observations due to cloud contamination induce unrealistic variations. Thirteen years of C6 LAI, temperature and precipitation time series data are used to assess the degree of correspondence between their variations. The statistically-significant associations between C6 LAI and climate variables indicate that C6 LAI has the potential to provide reliable biophysical information about the land surface when diagnosing climate-driven vegetation responses.

As the latest version of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) products, Collection 6 (C6) has been distributed since August 2015. This collection is evaluated in this two-part series with the goal of assessing product accuracy, uncertainty and consistency with the previous version. In this first paper, we compare C6 (MOD15A2H) with Collection 5 (C5) to check for consistency and discuss the scale effects associated with changing spatial resolution between the two collections and benefits from improvements to algorithm inputs. Compared with C5, C6 benefits from two improved inputs: (1) L2G–lite surface reflectance at 500 m resolution in place of reflectance at 1 km resolution; and (2) new multi-year land-cover product at 500 m resolution in place of the 1 km static land-cover product. Global and seasonal comparison between C5 and C6 indicates good continuity and consistency for all biome types. Moreover, inter-annual LAI anomalies at the regional scale from C5 and C6 agree well. The proportion of main radiative transfer algorithm retrievals in C6 increased slightly in most biome types, notably including a 17% improvement in evergreen broadleaf forests. With same biome input, the mean RMSE of LAI and FPAR between C5 and C6 at global scale are 0.29 and 0.091, respectively, but biome type disagreement worsens the consistency (LAI: 0.39, FPAR: 0.102). By quantifying the impact of input changes, we find that the improvements of both land-cover and reflectance products improve LAI/FPAR products. Moreover, we find that spatial scale effects due to a resolution change from 1 km to 500 m do not cause any significant differences.

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

The operational Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) algorithm has been successfully implemented for Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) observations by optimizing a small set of configurable parameters in Look-Up-Tables (LUTs). Our preliminary evaluation showed reasonable agreement between VIIRS and MODIS LAI/FPAR retrievals. However, there is a need for a more comprehensive investigation to assure continuity of multi-sensor global LAI/FPAR time series, as the preliminary evaluation was spatiotemporally limited. In this study, we use a multi-year (2012–2016) global LAI/FPAR product generated from VIIRS and MODIS to evaluate for spatiotemporal consistency. We also quantify uncertainty of the product by utilizing available ground measurements. For both consistency and uncertainty evaluation, we account for variations in biome type and temporal resolution. Our results indicate that the LAI/FPAR retrievals from VIIRS and MODIS are consistent at different spatial (i.e., global and site) and temporal (i.e., 8-day, seasonal and annual) scales. The estimate of mean discrepancy (−0.006 ± 0.013 for LAI and −0.002 ± 0.002 for FPAR) meets the stability requirement for long-term LAI/FPAR Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) from multi-sensors as suggested by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). It is noteworthy that the rate of retrievals from the radiative transfer-based main algorithm is also comparable between two sensors. However, a relatively larger discrepancy over tropical forests was observed due to reflectance saturation and an unexpected interannual variation of main algorithm success was noticed due to instability in input surface reflectances. The uncertainties/relative uncertainties of VIIRS and MODIS LAI (FPAR) products assessed through comparisons to ground measurements are estimated to be 0.60/42.2% (0.10/24.4%) and 0.55/39.3% (0.11/26%), respectively. Note that the validated LAI were only distributed in low domains (~2.5), resulting in large relative uncertainty. Therefore, more ground measurements are needed to achieve a more comprehensive evaluation result of product uncertainty. The results presented here generally imbue confidence in the consistency between VIIRS and MODIS LAI/FPAR products and the feasibility of generating long-term multi-sensor LAI/FPAR ESDRs time series.

Remote sensing estimation based on the dimidiate pixel model (DPM) using vegetation indices (VIs) is a common approach for mapping fractional vegetation cover (FVC). The major drawback of DPM is that it does not consider real endmember conditions and multiple scattering between soil and vegetation. An analysis of FVC uncertainties caused by these model deficiencies is still lacking. Here, we first calculated the FVC theoretical uncertainty caused by reflectance uncertainties based on the law of prapagation of uncertainty (LPU). Then, we tested the performance of DPM using six VIs over 3-D forest scenes. We simulated both Aqua-MODIS and Landsat-OLI surface reflectance (SR) at their corresponding spatial resolutions and spectral response functions (SRFs) using a well-validated 3-D radiative transfer (RT) model which helps to separate the model and input uncertainties. We found that ratio vegetation index (RVI)- and enhanced vegetation index (EVI)-based models were most affected by sensors, followed by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-, enhanced vegetation index 2 (EVI2)-, renormalized difference vegetation index (RDVI)-, and difference vegetation index (DVI)-based models. Without considering SR uncertainties, the DVI-based model performed best (FVC absolute difference < 0.1); however, the commonly used NDVI model reached a maximum difference of 0.35. At the same time, input uncertainty increased the uncertainty of FVC retrieval. We noticed that the increase of solar zenith angle (SZA) resulted in a clear increase of retrieved FVC under the uniform distribution, which can be explained by the increased shadow proportion. Besides, model accuracy was dominated by the purity of soil (vegetation) endmember in low (high) vegetation cover area. This study provides a reference for the selection of the optimal VI for FVC retrieval based on the DPM.