Certain infectious agents are recognised causes of cancer and other chronic diseases. To understand the pathological mechanisms underlying such relationships, here we design a Multiplex Serology platform to measure quantitative antibody responses against 45 antigens from 20 infectious agents including human herpes, hepatitis, polyoma, papilloma, and retroviruses, as well as Chlamydia trachomatis , Helicobacter pylori and Toxoplasma gondii , then assayed a random subset of 9695 UK Biobank participants. We find seroprevalence estimates consistent with those expected from prior literature and confirm multiple associations of antibody responses with sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., lifetime sexual partners with C. trachomatis ), HLA genetic variants (rs6927022 with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) EBNA1 antibodies) and disease outcomes (human papillomavirus-16 seropositivity with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and EBV responses with multiple sclerosis). Our accessible dataset is one of the largest incorporating diverse infectious agents in a prospective UK cohort offering opportunities to improve our understanding of host-pathogen-disease relationships with significant clinical and public health implications.

Human herpesviruses (HHV) cause a variety of clinically relevant conditions upon primary infection of typically young and immunocompetent hosts. Both primary infection and reactivation after latency can lead to more severe disease, such as encephalitis, congenital defects and cancer. Infections with HHV are also associated with cardiovascular and neurodegenerative disease. However, most of the associations are based on retrospective case-control analyses and well-powered prospective cohort studies are needed for assessing temporality and causality. To enable comprehensive investigations of HHV-related disease etiology in large prospective population-based cohort studies, we developed HHV Multiplex Serology. This methodology represents a low-cost, high-throughput technology that allows simultaneous measurement of specific antibodies against five HHV species: Herpes simplex viruses 1 and 2, Varicella zoster virus, Epstein-Barr virus, and Cytomegalovirus. The newly developed HHV species-specific (‘Monoplex’) assays were validated against established gold-standard reference assays. The specificity and sensitivity of the HHV species-specific Monoplex Serology assays ranged from 92.3% to 100.0% (median 97.4%) and 91.8% to 98.7% (median 96.6%), respectively. Concordance with reference assays was very high with kappa values ranging from 0.86 to 0.96 (median kappa 0.93). Multiplexing the Monoplex Serology assays resulted in no loss of performance and allows simultaneous detection of antibodies against the 5 HHV species in a high-throughput manner.

CMV is associated with immunosenescence and reduced vaccine responses in the elderly (>70 yr). However, the impact of CMV in young adults is less clear. In this study, healthy UK and Senegalese adults aged 18–50 yr (average, 29 yr) were vaccinated with the Ebola vaccine candidate chimpanzee adenovirus type 3–vectored Ebola Zaire vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z) and boosted with modified vaccinia Ankara Ebola Zaire–vectored (MVA–EBO-Z) vaccine. CMV carriage was associated with an expansion of phenotypically senescent CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells expressing CD57 and killer cell lectin-like receptor G1 (KLRG1), which was negatively associated with vaccine responses in both cohorts. Ebola-specific T cell responses induced by vaccination also contained significantly increased frequencies of terminally differentiated CD57⁺KLRG1⁺ cells in CMV seropositive (CMV⁺) individuals. This study suggests that CMV can also affect vaccine responses in younger adults and may have a particularly marked impact in many developing countries where CMV seroprevalence is almost universal.

Antibodies against HPV16 early proteins have been shown to be promising biomarkers for the identification of HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer (HPV-OPC) among OPC cases in multiple studies. A systematic literature search was performed to identify original research articles comparing HPV early antigen serology with established reference methods to determine molecular HPV tumor status. Random-effects models were used to calculate summary estimates for sensitivity and specificity of HPV16 E2, E6 and E7 serology for HPV-OPC. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore heterogeneity across studies and describe variables associated with test performance. We identified n = 23 studies meeting all eligibility criteria and included these in the meta-analysis. E6 serology showed the best performance with pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates of 83.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 72.5–90.2%) and 94.6% (95% CI 89.0–97.4%), respectively, while E2 and E7 serological assays were highly specific (E2: 92.5% (95% CI 79.1–97.6%); E7: 88.5% (95% CI 77.9–94.4%)) but moderately sensitive (E2: 67.8% (95% CI 58.9–75.6%); E7: 67.0% (95% CI 63.2–70.6%)). Subgroup analyses revealed increased pooled sensitivity for bacterially (89.9% (95% CI 84.5–93.6%)) vs. in vitro expressed E6 antigen (55.3% (95% CI 41.0–68.7%)), while both showed high specificity (95.2% (95% CI 93.0–96.7%) and 91.1% (95% CI 46.6–99.2%), respectively). Pooled specificity estimates for HPV16 E2, E6 and E7 serology were significantly lower in studies utilizing HPV DNA PCR as the only molecular reference method compared to those using a combination of any two reference methods (HPV DNA, RNA, in situ hybridization (ISH), p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC)), or histopathological reference methods (ISH or p16 IHC) as stand-alone marker. In conclusion, HPV16 E6 seropositivity is a highly sensitive and specific biomarker for HPV-OPC. However, its performance differs between serological assays and depends on molecular reference methods.

PURPOSE: Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown.METHODS: We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality.RESULTS: The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status.CONCLUSION: We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.

Antibodies against the HPV16 oncoprotein E6 are promising biomarkers for HPV16-driven oropharyngeal cancer (HPV16-OPC) due to their high sensitivity and specificity, and prospective manifestation. In previous studies, 0•7% of controls without HPV-associated malignancies were HPV16 E6 seropositive of which only a minority is expected to develop HPV16-driven cancer. We aimed to characterise HPV16 E6 antibodies in individuals without HPV-associated malignancies. We analysed serum antibodies against HPV16 E6, E7, L1 and HPV18 L1 in a random sample (n = 9,695) of the prospective UK Biobank cohort (UKB). Excluding individuals with potentially HPV-associated malignancies (n = 192), we assessed risk factors for seropositivity by logistic regression. In individuals without potentially HPV-associated malignancies (n = 9,503), the HPV16 E6 seroprevalence was 0•8%. Seropositivity against HPV16 E6 and all other HPV antigens was strongly associated with sexual behaviour. The seroprevalence of HPV16 E6, L1 and HPV18 L1 increased with the number of lifetime sex partners (ptrend<0•005), and all HPV antibodies were associated with same-sex intercourse (ORE6 3•1, 95%CI 1•4-6•9; reference category: no same-sex intercourse). HPV16 E6 and L1 seropositivity were associated with young age (≤17 years) at sexual debut (ORE6 2•0, 95%CI 1•1-3•7) compared with individuals reporting sexual debut at age ≥20 years. This is the first study characterising HPV16 E6 antibodies in the general UK population. Their strong association with sexual behaviour, and overlapping risk factor profiles with other HPV antibodies support their relevance for HPV16-OPC disease prediction. However, additional risk stratification will be required to identify individuals at highest risk to develop HPV16-OPC.