Sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge inundation are major concerns along the coast of the San Francisco Bay (the Bay Area), impacting both coastal communities and critical infrastructure networks. The oil industry comprises a complex and critical infrastructure network located in the Bay Area. There is an urgent need to assess consequences and identify risk-based solutions to increase the resilience of this industrial network in the Bay Area to SLR and storm surge. In this study, a comprehensive multi-modal network model representing the fuel supply system was built. A total of 120 coastal flooding scenarios, including four General Circulation Models, two Representative Concentration Pathways, three percentiles of future SLR estimates, and five planning horizons (20 year intervals from 2000 to 2100) were considered. The impact of coastal flooding on fuel transportation networks was studied at two different scales: regional and local. At the regional scale, basic network properties and network efficiency were analyzed across multiple flooding scenarios. At the local scale, cascading effects of individual node disruptions were simulated. Based on this research, smarter and more holistic risk-based adaptation strategies can be established which could lead to a more resilient fuel transportation network system.

On January 9, 2018 a series of debris flows killed 23 people and caused over a $1 billion in economic losses in Montecito, Santa Barbara County. The debris flows followed a classic pattern in mountainous areas of southern California: A large wildfire (the 2017 Thomas Fire) burned the headwaters of streams draining the Transverse Ranges southward to the Pacific, creating hydrophobic soil conditions that prevented infiltration of water, resulting in larger runoff during rains. A cell of intense precipitation over Montecito triggered debris flows, affecting areas along the stream channels. The 2018 Montecito debris flows raise compelling questions about the role of scientific information in decision making generally, and specifically how hazardous areas along rivers and streams are mapped, how land use is regulated in these zones, and how best to respond in emergency situations. This presentation analyzes the evacuation planning process during the emergency management (making emphasis on the maps used by public officials), the recovery planning strategies that the local government adopted after the event, and the evolution of houses in flood hazard areas since the beginning of the 20th century, to highlight the importance of exposure as a key element to reduce risk.

Read “ ​Jump-Starting Global Grid Decarbonization: US-Dutch Partnerships Energize Utility-Scale Battery Deployment ” a Policy Memo from Volume 24, Issue 01 of the Journal of Science Policy & Governance.