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The analysis of historical disaster events is a critical step towards understanding current risk levels and changes in disaster risk over time. Disaster databases are potentially useful tools for exploring trends, however, criteria for inclusion of events and for associated descriptive characteristics is not standardized. For example, some databases include only primary disaster types, such as ‘flood’, while others include subtypes, such as ‘coastal flood’ and ‘flash flood’. Here we outline a method to identify candidate events for assignment of a specific disaster subtype—namely, ‘flash floods’—from the corresponding primary disaster type—namely, ‘flood’. Geophysical data, including variables derived from remote sensing, are integrated to develop an enhanced flash flood confidence index, consisting of both a flash flood confidence index based on text mining of disaster reports and a flash flood susceptibility index from remote sensing derived geophysical data. This method was applied to a historical flood event dataset covering Ecuador. Results indicate the potential value of disaggregating events labeled as a primary disaster type into events of a particular subtype. The outputs are potentially useful for disaster risk reduction and vulnerability assessment if appropriately evaluated for fitness of use.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz; Agathe Bucherie; Fernanda Ayala; Carolynne Hultquist; Humberto Vergara; Simon Mason; Juan Bazo; Alex de Sherbinin. Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 2764 .
AMA StyleAndrew Kruczkiewicz, Agathe Bucherie, Fernanda Ayala, Carolynne Hultquist, Humberto Vergara, Simon Mason, Juan Bazo, Alex de Sherbinin. Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (14):2764.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrew Kruczkiewicz; Agathe Bucherie; Fernanda Ayala; Carolynne Hultquist; Humberto Vergara; Simon Mason; Juan Bazo; Alex de Sherbinin. 2021. "Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility." Remote Sensing 13, no. 14: 2764.
Achieving the seventeen United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires accurate, consistent, and accessible population data. Yet many low- and middle-income countries lack reliable or recent census data at the sufficiently fine spatial scales needed to monitor SDG progress. While the increasing abundance of Earth observation-derived gridded population products provides analysis-ready population estimates, end users lack clear use criteria to track SDGs indicators. In fact, recent comparisons of gridded population products identify wide variation across gridded population products. Here we present three case studies to illuminate how gridded population datasets compare in measuring and monitoring SDGs to advance the “fitness for use” guidance. Our focus is on SDG 11.5, which aims to reduce the number of people impacted by disasters. We use five gridded population datasets to measure and map hazard exposure for three case studies: the 2015 earthquake in Nepal; Cyclone Idai in Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe (MMZ) in 2019; and flash flood susceptibility in Ecuador. First, we map and quantify geographic patterns of agreement/disagreement across gridded population products for Nepal, MMZ, and Ecuador, including delineating urban and rural populations estimates. Second, we quantify the populations exposed to each hazard. Across hazards and geographic contexts, there were marked differences in population estimates across the gridded population datasets. As such, it is key that researchers, practitioners, and end users utilize multiple gridded population datasets—an ensemble approach—to capture uncertainty and/or provide range estimates when using gridded population products to track SDG indicators. To this end, we made available code and globally comprehensive datasets that allows for the intercomparison of gridded population products.
Cascade Tuholske; Andrea Gaughan; Alessandro Sorichetta; Alex de Sherbinin; Agathe Bucherie; Carolynne Hultquist; Forrest Stevens; Andrew Kruczkiewicz; Charles Huyck; Greg Yetman. Implications for Tracking SDG Indicator Metrics with Gridded Population Data. Sustainability 2021, 13, 7329 .
AMA StyleCascade Tuholske, Andrea Gaughan, Alessandro Sorichetta, Alex de Sherbinin, Agathe Bucherie, Carolynne Hultquist, Forrest Stevens, Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Charles Huyck, Greg Yetman. Implications for Tracking SDG Indicator Metrics with Gridded Population Data. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (13):7329.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCascade Tuholske; Andrea Gaughan; Alessandro Sorichetta; Alex de Sherbinin; Agathe Bucherie; Carolynne Hultquist; Forrest Stevens; Andrew Kruczkiewicz; Charles Huyck; Greg Yetman. 2021. "Implications for Tracking SDG Indicator Metrics with Gridded Population Data." Sustainability 13, no. 13: 7329.
A. Kruczkiewicz; J. Klopp; J. Fisher; S. Mason; S. McClain; N. M. Sheekh; R. Moss; R. M. Parks; C. Braneon. Opinion: Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2021, 118, 1 .
AMA StyleA. Kruczkiewicz, J. Klopp, J. Fisher, S. Mason, S. McClain, N. M. Sheekh, R. Moss, R. M. Parks, C. Braneon. Opinion: Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2021; 118 (19):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. Kruczkiewicz; J. Klopp; J. Fisher; S. Mason; S. McClain; N. M. Sheekh; R. Moss; R. M. Parks; C. Braneon. 2021. "Opinion: Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 19: 1.