Balanced medical and criminal justice approaches addressing determinants of alcohol and other drugs (AOD) use are central to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 3 and 16. However, data on AOD use in resource-poor settings are characterised by relative paucity and anecdote. This study aimed to describe and analyse AOD use susceptibility and its determinants among school-attending adolescents in the capital Bissau, Guinea-Bissau. Survey data were collected through a locally adapted Planet Youth questionnaire in June 2017 across 16 schools in Bissau. The 2039-strong sample was selected through a multi-stage, random cluster process. Participants’ lifetime alcohol use was 27.3%, smoking 10.8%, and cannabis use 3.6%. In each instance, the ‘15 years and above’ age bracket was the most common initiation period, signifying increased instigation in later adolescence. Subsequent Varimax Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of 312 variables captured data-driven models of AOD use susceptibility, implying imitated, polydrug use among initiates. Linear regression analysis revealed drinking, group violence, male gender, school dismissal and relationship breakdown as explanatory variables. Overlapping predictive variables suggest singular interventions may pre-empt myriad antisocial behaviours. PCA offers alternatives to singular, potentially myopic quantifications of drug use. PCA facilitates the creation of context-sensitive composite variables, enabling the identification of related outcome behaviours relevant to studies’ sociocultural settings.

Research increasingly examines initial access to higher education (HE) in sub-Saharan Africa, yet less is known about the persistence of enrolled students in fragile contexts where costs are high and outcomes are uncertain. This study provides the first large-scale quantitative analysis of perceived HE worth in Guinea-Bissau, a resource-scarce Lusophone state. Drawing on Human Capital Investment (HCI), Behavioural Economics (BE), and Afrocentric perspectives on resilience and hope, we analysed survey data from 2255 students across six HE institutions (HEIs). A binary indicator of whether HE was worth the cost was used to assess ongoing valuation, and the data were analysed using sequential block-entry logistic regression after multiple imputation. Overall, 30.1% of students did not affirm that HE was worth the cost, indicating that enrolment does not guarantee sustained valuation. While cost-benefit reasoning remains important, perceptions were strongly shaped by campus climate and forward-looking expectations. Perceived advantages of HE, even without completion, outweighed the value of credentials alone, suggesting a pragmatic evaluation. We suggest anticipatory resilience as a lens for understanding students’ sustained valuations of HE amid uncertainty, grounded in anticipated benefits, institutional experience, and relational resources. Policy should prioritise campus climate, reduce financial strain, and reinforce the intrinsic value of HE.