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Warm European summer temperatures are often preceded by low soil moisture conditions, but also depend on the atmospheric circulations and associated rainfall that may trigger drought to persist and land-atmosphere feedbacks to take place. The quantitative role of early-summer soil moisture (ESSM) trends, vs. that of trends in atmospheric circulations and other large-scale drivers (LS), in explaining the long-term trends in summer warming have not been investigated so far. Using regional climate simulations with forced large-scale circulation and different possible initial soil moisture, we show that the increasing ESSM deficit explains almost all of the warming summer trend (1980-2011) in Western Europe (∼0.1-0.2°C.decade−1, p-value < 0.05). It also contributed a similar amount to summer warming trend in Eastern Europe, although here LS explains a much larger part of the overall warming. Our results emphasize the crucial role of the pre-summer water cycle in current and future regional evolutions of Western European summer climate.
A. I. Stegehuis; M. M. Vogel; R Vautard; P Ciais; A. J. Teuling; S. I. Seneviratne. Early summer soil moisture contribution to Western European summer warming. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleA. I. Stegehuis, M. M. Vogel, R Vautard, P Ciais, A. J. Teuling, S. I. Seneviratne. Early summer soil moisture contribution to Western European summer warming. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. I. Stegehuis; M. M. Vogel; R Vautard; P Ciais; A. J. Teuling; S. I. Seneviratne. 2021. "Early summer soil moisture contribution to Western European summer warming." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , no. : 1.
Water storage plays an important role in mitigating heat and flooding in urban areas. Assessment of the capacity of cities to store water remains challenging due to the extreme heterogeneity of the urban surface. Traditionally, effective storage has been estimated from runoff. Here, we present a novel approach to estimate water storage capacity from recession rates of evaporation during precipitation-free periods. We test this approach for cities at neighborhood scale with eddy-covariance latent heat flux observations from thirteen contrasting sites with different local climate zones, vegetation cover and characteristics, and climates. We find effective water storage capacities to vary between 1.3-28.4 mm corresponding to e-folding timescales of 1.8-20.1 days. According to our results, urban water storage capacity is at least one order of magnitude smaller than the observed values for natural ecosystems, resulting in an evaporation regime characterised by extreme water limitation.
Harro Joseph JongeniD; Gert-Jan SteeneveldiD; Jason Beringer; Andreas Christen; Krzysztof Fortuniak; Jinkyu HongiD; Je-Woo Hong; Cor Mj Jacobs; Leena Järvi; Fred MeieriD; Włodzimierz Pawlak; Matthias Roth; Natalie TheeuwesiD; Erik VelascoiD; Ryan J. TeulingiD. Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleHarro Joseph JongeniD, Gert-Jan SteeneveldiD, Jason Beringer, Andreas Christen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Jinkyu HongiD, Je-Woo Hong, Cor Mj Jacobs, Leena Järvi, Fred MeieriD, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Matthias Roth, Natalie TheeuwesiD, Erik VelascoiD, Ryan J. TeulingiD. Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHarro Joseph JongeniD; Gert-Jan SteeneveldiD; Jason Beringer; Andreas Christen; Krzysztof Fortuniak; Jinkyu HongiD; Je-Woo Hong; Cor Mj Jacobs; Leena Järvi; Fred MeieriD; Włodzimierz Pawlak; Matthias Roth; Natalie TheeuwesiD; Erik VelascoiD; Ryan J. TeulingiD. 2021. "Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession." , no. : 1.
The simplified representation of snow processes in most large-scale hydrological and climate models is known to introduce considerable uncertainty in the predictions and projections of water availability. During the critical snowmelt period, the main challenge in snow modeling is that net radiation is spatially highly variable for a patchy snow cover, resulting in large horizontal differences in temperatures and heat fluxes. These differences can drive advection of turbulent heat from the snow free areas to the snow patches, potentially enhancing the melt rates at the leading edge and increasing the variability of subgrid melt rates. To get more insight in these processes, we examine the melt along the upwind and downwind edges of a 50 meter long snow patch in the Finseelvi catchment, Norway, and try to explain the observed behaviour with highly idealized simulations of heat fluxes and air movement over patchy snow. The melt of the snow patch was monitored from 11 June until 15 June 2019 by making use of height maps obtained through the photogrammetric Structure-from-Motion principle. A vertical melt of 23 ± 2.0 cm was observed at the upwind edge over the course of the field campaign, whereas the downwind edge melted only 3 ± 0.4 cm. When comparing this with meteorological measurements, we estimate the turbulent heat fluxes to be responsible for 60 to 80 % of the upwind melt of which a significant part is caused by the latent heat flux. The melt at the downwind edge approximately matches the melt occurring due to net radiation. To better understand the dominant processes, we represented this behaviour in idealized direct numerical simulations, which are based on the measurements on a single snow patch by Harder et al. (2017) and resemble a flat patchy snow cover with typical snow patch sizes of 15, 30 and 60 m. Using these simulations, we found that the reduction of the vertical temperature gradient over the snow patch was the main cause for the reductions in sensible heat over distance from the leading edge, independent of typical snow patch size. Moreover, we observed that the sensible heat fluxes at the leading edge and the decay over distance were independent of snow patch size as well, which resulted in a 15 % and 25 % reduction in average snowmelt for respectively a doubling and quadrupling of typical snow patch size. These findings lay out pathways to include the effect of local-scale heat advection based on the typical snow patch size in large-scale hydrological and climate models to improve snowmelt modelling.
Luuk D. van der Valk; Adriaan J. Teuling; Luc Girod; Norbert Pirk; Robin Stoffer; Chiel C. van Heerwaarden. Understanding wind-driven melt of patchy snow cover. 2021, 2021, 1 -32.
AMA StyleLuuk D. van der Valk, Adriaan J. Teuling, Luc Girod, Norbert Pirk, Robin Stoffer, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden. Understanding wind-driven melt of patchy snow cover. . 2021; 2021 ():1-32.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLuuk D. van der Valk; Adriaan J. Teuling; Luc Girod; Norbert Pirk; Robin Stoffer; Chiel C. van Heerwaarden. 2021. "Understanding wind-driven melt of patchy snow cover." 2021, no. : 1-32.
Droughts occur as a result of a lack of water compared with normal conditions. Whilst this appears trivial, the exact drought definition of drought is not. Especially as different drought types are present, resulting from the different variables in a hydrological system, each with unique characteristics. We use a common drought definition, the percentile score, and apply the same definition across all drought types, to study whether the actual occurrence of droughts matches the definition. We focus on the data-rich Dutch province of Gelderland, to study droughts from observations across five major components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle. When a percentile threshold of 20% is used as drought definition, corresponding to a mild drought, droughts anywhere in the system occur at least three times more frequently (73% of the time). On the other hand, the situation where drought occurs across all components of the terrestrial hydrological cycle is more than four times less likely than the drought threshold of 20% (namely 5% of the time). This can be attributed by both (1) the different responses across the hydrological system, and (2) the spatial variability present within each component of the hydrological system. With this study, we show the existence of the drought frequently paradox: although droughts are seen and defined as rare from a scientific perspective, when viewed from a societal or operational water management perspective in typical hydrological systems subject to spatial variability and other system complexity, droughts become common, rather than rare. This paradox is a consequence of an inconsistent use of the percentile score drought definition between research and operational water management, and better communication between the two domains is needed in search for a universally accepted drought definition.
Joost Buitink; Theresa C. van Hateren; Adriaan J. Teuling. Hydrological System Complexity Induces a Drought Frequency Paradox. Frontiers in Water 2021, 3, 1 .
AMA StyleJoost Buitink, Theresa C. van Hateren, Adriaan J. Teuling. Hydrological System Complexity Induces a Drought Frequency Paradox. Frontiers in Water. 2021; 3 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoost Buitink; Theresa C. van Hateren; Adriaan J. Teuling. 2021. "Hydrological System Complexity Induces a Drought Frequency Paradox." Frontiers in Water 3, no. : 1.
Models that mimic an original model might have a different model structure that affects model output. This study assesses model structure differences and their impact on output by comparing 7 model implementations that carry the name HBV. We explain and quantify output differences with individual model structure components at both the numerical (e.g. example explicit/implicit scheme) and mathematical level (e.g. lineair/power outflow). It was found that none of the numerical and mathematical formulations of the mimicking models were (originally) the same as the benchmark, HBV‐light. This led to small but distinct output differences in simulated streamflow for different numerical implementations (KGE difference up to 0.15), and major output differences due to mathematical differences (KGE median loss of 0.27). These differences decreased after calibrating the individual models to the simulated streamflow of the benchmark model. We argue that the lack of systematic model naming has led to a diverging concept of the HBV‐model, diminishing the concept of model mimicry. Development of a systematic model naming framework, open accessible model code and more elaborate model descriptions are suggested to enhance model mimicry and model development.
Koen F. Jansen; Adriaan J. Teuling; James R. Craig; Marco Dal Molin; Wouter J. M. Knoben; Juraj Parajka; Marc Vis; Lieke A. Melsen. Mimicry of a Conceptual Hydrological Model (HBV): What's in a Name? Water Resources Research 2021, 57, 1 .
AMA StyleKoen F. Jansen, Adriaan J. Teuling, James R. Craig, Marco Dal Molin, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Juraj Parajka, Marc Vis, Lieke A. Melsen. Mimicry of a Conceptual Hydrological Model (HBV): What's in a Name? Water Resources Research. 2021; 57 (5):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKoen F. Jansen; Adriaan J. Teuling; James R. Craig; Marco Dal Molin; Wouter J. M. Knoben; Juraj Parajka; Marc Vis; Lieke A. Melsen. 2021. "Mimicry of a Conceptual Hydrological Model (HBV): What's in a Name?" Water Resources Research 57, no. 5: 1.
Long-lasting precipitation deficits or heat waves can induce agricultural droughts, which are generally defined as soil moisture deficits that are severe enough to negatively impact vegetation. However, during short soil moisture drought events, the vegetation is not always negatively affected and sometimes even thrives. Due to this duality in agricultural drought impacts, the term “agricultural drought” is ambiguous. Using the ESA’s remotely sensed CCI surface soil moisture estimates and MODIS NDVI vegetation greenness data, we show that, in major European droughts over the past two decades, asynchronies and discrepancies occurred between the surface soil moisture and vegetation droughts. A clear delay is visible between the onset of soil moisture drought and vegetation drought, with correlations generally peaking at the end of the growing season. At lower latitudes, correlations peaked earlier in the season, likely due to an earlier onset of water limited conditions. In certain cases, the vegetation showed a positive anomaly, even during soil moisture drought events. As a result, using the term agricultural drought instead of soil moisture or vegetation drought, could lead to the misclassification of drought events and false drought alarms. We argue that soil moisture and vegetation drought should be considered separately.
Theresa van Hateren; Marco Chini; Patrick Matgen; Adriaan Teuling. Ambiguous Agricultural Drought: Characterising Soil Moisture and Vegetation Droughts in Europe from Earth Observation. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 1990 .
AMA StyleTheresa van Hateren, Marco Chini, Patrick Matgen, Adriaan Teuling. Ambiguous Agricultural Drought: Characterising Soil Moisture and Vegetation Droughts in Europe from Earth Observation. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (10):1990.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTheresa van Hateren; Marco Chini; Patrick Matgen; Adriaan Teuling. 2021. "Ambiguous Agricultural Drought: Characterising Soil Moisture and Vegetation Droughts in Europe from Earth Observation." Remote Sensing 13, no. 10: 1990.
This study analyses how temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes influence the discharge in the Rhine Basin. Using an efficient distributed hydrological model at high spatio-temporal resolution, we performed two experiments to understand how changes in temperature affect the discharge. In the first experiment, we compared two 10-year periods (1980s and 2010s) to determine how changes in discharge can be related to changes in evaporation, snowfall, melt from snow and ice, and precipitation. By simulating these periods, we can exchange the forcing components (evaporation, temperature for snowfall and melt, and precipitation), to quantify their individual and combined effects on the discharge. Around half of the observed changes could be explained by the changes induced by temperature effects on snowfall and melt (10 %), temperature effects on evaporation (16 %), and precipitation (19 %), showing that temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow (26 %) are larger than the precipitation-driven changes (19 %). The remaining 55 % was driven by the interaction of these variables: e.g. the type of precipitation (interaction between temperature and precipitation) or the amount of generated runoff (interaction between evaporation and precipitation). In the second experiment we exclude the effect of precipitation and run scenarios with realistically increased temperatures. These simulations show that discharge is generally expected to decrease due to the positive effect of temperature on (potential) evaporation. However, more liquid precipitation and different melt dynamics from snow and ice can slightly offset this reduction in discharge. Earlier snowmelt leaves less snowpack available to melt during spring, when it historically melts, and amplifies the discharge reduction caused by the enhanced evaporation. These results are tested over a range of rooting depths. This study shows how the combined effects of temperature-driven changes affect discharge. With many basins around the world depending on meltwater, a correct understanding of these changes and their interaction is vital.
Joost Buitink; Lieke A. Melsen; Adriaan J. Teuling. Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin. Earth System Dynamics 2021, 12, 387 -400.
AMA StyleJoost Buitink, Lieke A. Melsen, Adriaan J. Teuling. Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin. Earth System Dynamics. 2021; 12 (2):387-400.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoost Buitink; Lieke A. Melsen; Adriaan J. Teuling. 2021. "Seasonal discharge response to temperature-driven changes in evaporation and snow processes in the Rhine Basin." Earth System Dynamics 12, no. 2: 387-400.
East-African forested mountain regions are vital in generating and supplying water resources to adjacent arid and semi-arid lowlands. However, these ecosystems are under pressure from both climate and land-use changes. This study aimed to analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on water yield using the Budyko conceptual framework. For 9 selected forested water towers in East Africa, the amount and distribution of water resources and their decadal changes were analyzed. Results show that most areas inside and outside the water towers are under pressure from human influences. Water yield was observed to be more sensitive to climate changes compared to land-use changes within the selected East African water towers themselves. However, for the surrounding lowlands, the effects of land-use changes have greater impacts on water yield. We conclude that the East-African water towers have seen a strong shift towards wetter conditions, especially in the period of 2011–2019 while at the same time, the atmospheric demand is gradually increasing. Given that majority of the water towers were identified as non-resilient to these changes, future water yield is likely to also experience more extreme variations.
Charles Nduhiu Wamucii; Pieter R. van Oel; Arend Ligtenberg; John Mwangi Gathenya; Adriaan J. Teuling. Land-use and climate change effects on water yield from East African Forested Water Towers. 2021, 2021, 1 -22.
AMA StyleCharles Nduhiu Wamucii, Pieter R. van Oel, Arend Ligtenberg, John Mwangi Gathenya, Adriaan J. Teuling. Land-use and climate change effects on water yield from East African Forested Water Towers. . 2021; 2021 ():1-22.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCharles Nduhiu Wamucii; Pieter R. van Oel; Arend Ligtenberg; John Mwangi Gathenya; Adriaan J. Teuling. 2021. "Land-use and climate change effects on water yield from East African Forested Water Towers." 2021, no. : 1-22.
Water storage plays an important role in mitigating heat and flooding in urban areas. Assessment of the capacity of cities to store water remains challenging due to the extreme heterogeneity of the urban surface. Traditionally, effective storage has been estimated from runoff. Here, we present a novel approach to estimate water storage capacity from recession rates of evaporation during precipitation-free periods. We test this approach for cities at neighborhood scale with eddy-covariance latent heat flux observations from thirteen contrasting sites with different local climate zones, vegetation cover and characteristics, and climates. We find effective water storage capacities to vary between 1.5 and 20 mm corresponding to e-folding timescales of 2.5 to 12 days. According to our results, urban water storage capacity is at least one order of magnitude smaller than the observed values for natural ecosystems, resulting in an evaporation regime characterised by extreme water limitation.
Harro Joseph Jongen; Gert-Jan Steeneveld; Jason Beringer; Andreas Christen; Krzysztof Fortuniak; Jinkyu Hong; Je-Woo Hong; Cor Mj Jacobs; Leena Järvi; Fred Meier; Włodzimierz Pawlak; Matthias Roth; Natalie Theeuwes; Erik Velasco; Ryan J. Teuling. Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleHarro Joseph Jongen, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Jason Beringer, Andreas Christen, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Jinkyu Hong, Je-Woo Hong, Cor Mj Jacobs, Leena Järvi, Fred Meier, Włodzimierz Pawlak, Matthias Roth, Natalie Theeuwes, Erik Velasco, Ryan J. Teuling. Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHarro Joseph Jongen; Gert-Jan Steeneveld; Jason Beringer; Andreas Christen; Krzysztof Fortuniak; Jinkyu Hong; Je-Woo Hong; Cor Mj Jacobs; Leena Järvi; Fred Meier; Włodzimierz Pawlak; Matthias Roth; Natalie Theeuwes; Erik Velasco; Ryan J. Teuling. 2021. "Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession." , no. : 1.
Vegetation plays an important role in the exchange of water between the land surface and the atmosphere through evaporation and redistribution of water. Hence, changes in vegetation cover alter the terrestrial hydrological cycle. Large-scale forest restoration is an effective climate change mitigation strategy through carbon sequestration and is expected to impact the water availability. A better understanding of the impact of reforestation is needed, given the numerous different reforestation missions.
Our study aims to provide an estimation of the hydrological effects of 900 million hectares of reforestation, called the ‘global tree restoration potential’ (Bastin et al., 2019). We include the effects of forest planting on evaporation and moisture recycling, where evaporation effects local water availability, and moisture recycling effects both local and remote water availability. We used the conventional Budyko’s moisture index framework to calculate the effects of reforestation on evaporation, and afterwards we used the UTrack dataset to calculate the changes in precipitation. The UTrack dataset presents the monthly climatological mean atmospheric moisture flows from evaporation to precipitation and is created using the Lagrangian moisture tracking model UTrack (Tuinenburg et al., 2020).
The results show that reforesting the ‘global tree restoration potential’ would effect water availability for most of the Earth’s surface. The global mean increase in terrestrial evaporation is 8 mm yr-1. The increase in evaporation is highest around the equator (on average 20 mm yr-1), with local maximum changes of up to 200 mm yr-1. This is related to a relatively high restoration potential in low latitude areas, and a generally large evaporation response in high precipitation regions. Enhanced moisture recycling has the potential to partly compensate for this decreased water availability by increasing the downwind precipitation.
Bastin, J.-F., Finegold, Y., Garcia, C., Mollicone, D., Rezende, M., Routh, D., Zohner, C.M., Crowther, T.W. The global tree restoration potential. Science, 365, 76-79, http://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax0848, 2019.
Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., and Staal, A.: High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3177–3188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3177-2020, 2020.
Anne J. Hoek van Dijke; Imme Benedict; Kaniska Mallick; Martin Herold; Miriam Machwitz; Martin Schlerf; Adriaan J. Teuling. The ‘global tree restoration potential’: a first estimation of the hydrological effects. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleAnne J. Hoek van Dijke, Imme Benedict, Kaniska Mallick, Martin Herold, Miriam Machwitz, Martin Schlerf, Adriaan J. Teuling. The ‘global tree restoration potential’: a first estimation of the hydrological effects. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnne J. Hoek van Dijke; Imme Benedict; Kaniska Mallick; Martin Herold; Miriam Machwitz; Martin Schlerf; Adriaan J. Teuling. 2021. "The ‘global tree restoration potential’: a first estimation of the hydrological effects." , no. : 1.
Validation of remotely sensed soil moisture is a well-known issue. Reference data with the correct spatial and temporal resolution on large scales are sparse and lack spatial representativeness. Moreover, due to the heterogeneity of soil moisture in both space and time, even reference data cannot be considered to be “ground truth”. As such, uncertainties are difficult to quantify. Additionally, in remotely sensed soil moisture there are trade-offs between spatial resolution and temporal resolution, resolution and accuracy, and resolution and computing time. Here, we try to identify the best spatial resolution for Sentinel-1 based soil moisture estimation, considering the trade-off between product resolution and accuracy. We use the uncertainty of the soil moisture estimate as a guide parameter, and focus on how product accuracy depends on factors as soil wetness, and characteristics of the vegetated canopy. To this end, we compare Sentinel-1 soil moisture estimates to both in situ data and global reference data sets with a lower spatial resolution. Remotely sensed surface soil moisture data were obtained by applying the MULESME algorithm (Pulvirenti et al., 2018) on Sentinel-1 data throughout 2020. An extensive field campaign was performed, where TDR data and volumetric soil samples were gathered. A nearby setup of permanent soil moisture probes additionally provided continuous measurements of soil moisture at different depths, from 10 to 60 centimetres. Global datasets were obtained from the SMOS satellite constellation, GLDAS, MERRA-2 and ESA CCI.
Pulvirenti, L., Squicciarino, G., Cenci, L., Boni, G., Pierdicca, N., Chini, M., Versace, P. & Campanella, P. (2018). A surface soil moisture mapping service at national (Italian) scale based on Sentinel-1 data. Environmental Modelling & Software, 102, 13-28.
Theresa C. van Hateren; Marco Chini; Patrick Matgen; Luca Pulvirenti; Nazzareno Pierdicca; Adriaan J. Teuling. Estimating the best spatial resolution of remotely sensed surface soil moisture based on their uncertainty . 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleTheresa C. van Hateren, Marco Chini, Patrick Matgen, Luca Pulvirenti, Nazzareno Pierdicca, Adriaan J. Teuling. Estimating the best spatial resolution of remotely sensed surface soil moisture based on their uncertainty . . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTheresa C. van Hateren; Marco Chini; Patrick Matgen; Luca Pulvirenti; Nazzareno Pierdicca; Adriaan J. Teuling. 2021. "Estimating the best spatial resolution of remotely sensed surface soil moisture based on their uncertainty ." , no. : 1.
There is strong evidence that rising temperatures mostly lead to less snow accumulation and to an earlier melt onset. However, changes in the frequency and intensity of snowmelt events remain unclear. While higher temperatures should intuitively lead to faster snowmelt, some studies find that melt rates are slower because the melt onset occurs earlier in the year when less energy is available for melt. Modelling of these snow dynamics is challenged by a lack of continuous observations on water content of the snowpack, the highly sought after SWE. However, high quality observations of snow depth can be more available in both space and time, even at higher altitudes. Therefore, an increasing number of models try to estimate SWE from snow depth and other variables. Here we first investigate if these models accurately reproduce the snow accumulation and melt dynamics, and to what extent they can be used for hydrological studies. We then convert a long-term pan-European snow depth dataset to SWE by making use of these models and we assess model performance. Historical trends of snowmelt rates, melt onset, and frequency and intensity of melt events are shown for several seasonal snow locations across Europe. Trends across a variety of timescales are generally weak and spatially inhomogeneous, suggesting local conditions dominate over regional climate trends. However, it seems that under the current climate change conditions, the decrease of snowpack depth over most of Europe causes snowpacks to melt faster (i.e. in less days) than before.
Adrià Fontrodona-Bach; Josh Larsen; Ross Woods; Bettina Schaefli; Ryan Teuling. Trends in snowmelt rates over Europe inferred from historical snow depth observations converted to SWE. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleAdrià Fontrodona-Bach, Josh Larsen, Ross Woods, Bettina Schaefli, Ryan Teuling. Trends in snowmelt rates over Europe inferred from historical snow depth observations converted to SWE. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdrià Fontrodona-Bach; Josh Larsen; Ross Woods; Bettina Schaefli; Ryan Teuling. 2021. "Trends in snowmelt rates over Europe inferred from historical snow depth observations converted to SWE." , no. : 1.
Forests worldwide supply moisture to downwind precipitation through moisture recycling. Agricultural areas located downwind of forests are, hence, susceptible to changes in precipitation caused by upwind forest changes. In fact, human activities have driven extensive forest cover changes in different parts of the world, in different directions, and at different rates. Nevertheless, the forest-agriculture relationship has yet to be systematically quantified and mapped globally. Previous regional studies in South America show that upwind deforestation of the Amazon forest can reduce downwind precipitation and thus decrease agricultural production. A global coverage analysis of forest-agriculture relationship is therefore necessary to identify other hotspot regions where downwind agriculture relies heavily on upwind forests. In this study, we establish the global source-to-sink relationship between forests and their downwind agriculture by analysing 10 years of high resolution (0.25°x0.25°) ERA5-based moisture flows processed by the UTrack moisture tracking model. We assess the seasonality of the reliance on forests considering the growing season of crops cultivated in the downwind regions. Our study provides a global overview of the cross-sectoral and remote dependence of agriculture on forests globally through moisture recycling.
Agnes Pranindita; Adriaan J Teuling; Ingo Fetzer; Lan Wang-Erlandsson. The role of forests in securing water for agriculture globally. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleAgnes Pranindita, Adriaan J Teuling, Ingo Fetzer, Lan Wang-Erlandsson. The role of forests in securing water for agriculture globally. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAgnes Pranindita; Adriaan J Teuling; Ingo Fetzer; Lan Wang-Erlandsson. 2021. "The role of forests in securing water for agriculture globally." , no. : 1.
Distinct differences in surface characteristics between a water body and a land surface result in different drivers of evaporation and therefore its dynamics. It is essential to include and represent this difference in the parameterization of open water evaporation (Ewater) to improve operational hydrological models. Additionally, more accurate parameterization becomes even more crucial to predict potential changes in quantity and dynamics of Ewater in a changing climate in support of optimal water management now and in the future.
For this purpose, we performed a long-term measurement campaign to measure Ewater and related meteorological variables over a large lowland reservoir in the Netherlands. During the summer seasons of 2019 and 2020 eddy-covariance systems were applied at two locations at the border of lake IJsselmeer in the Netherlands. These high temporal resolution measurements gave us the opportunity to explore the dynamics and identify the underlying driving mechanisms of Ewater. Using the data collected during the summer of 2019 we were able to develop a simple regression model for both measurement locations. Combinations, both sums and products, of the following independent variables were considered: global radiation, wind speed, water skin temperature, vapour pressure deficit, and vertical vapour pressure gradient. The product of wind speed and vertical vapour pressure gradient best explained the observed hourly Ewater rates, which is consistent with the commonly used aerodynamic approach. The model was validated using the data of 2020. Additionally, we compared measured Ewater to Ewater computed with Makkink’s equation, which is currently used in the Dutch operational hydrological models to estimate Ewater. Although a correction factor is applied to account for the difference between land evaporation and Ewater, Makkink is not able to capture the dynamics of Ewater. This was reflected in the timing and shape of the evaporation peak at both daily and monthly scales. The disagreement of Ewater dynamics found between the measured and simulated Ewater even more demonstrates the value and need of a correct parameterization of Ewater.
Femke A. Jansen; Adriaan J. Teuling; Remko Uijlenhoet; Cor M.J. Jacobs; Pieter Hazenberg. Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – observed dynamics during a warm summer. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleFemke A. Jansen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Remko Uijlenhoet, Cor M.J. Jacobs, Pieter Hazenberg. Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – observed dynamics during a warm summer. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFemke A. Jansen; Adriaan J. Teuling; Remko Uijlenhoet; Cor M.J. Jacobs; Pieter Hazenberg. 2021. "Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – observed dynamics during a warm summer." , no. : 1.
In many tropical areas slash-and-burn agriculture is an important driver of forest loss. In areas where slash-and-burn agriculture has been practiced for decades, land cover is typically a mosaic of patches of remnant forest, fields under active cultivation, fallows in various stages of regrowth (ranging from young shrub to semi-mature), and degraded fire-climax grasslands. Although runoff generation mechanisms are expected to be different for these different patches, little quantitative information is available in this regard, particularly at the catchment scale and over longer time-scales (i.e., multiple slash-and-burn cycles).
We re-instrumented a 31 ha catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar, where slash-and-burn agriculture has been practiced for more than 70 years in 2015; it had been monitored between 1963 and 1972 as well1. We measured streamflow at two locations and overland flow and soil moisture for four hillside plots (0.05 – 1.93 ha): one plot under repeatedly coppiced and burned Eucalyptus and three plots under young shrub and tree fallows. One of the plots underwent rudimentary terracing in the past. We analysed the rainfall-runoff dynamics for 50 rainfall events (median 12 mm, maximum 71 mm).
For 60% of the events, the stormflow coefficient (minimum contributing area) was <3%, which is the proportion of valley-bottom wetlands and rice paddies in the catchment. Stable isotope sampling for five storm runoff events indicate a maximum total event-water contribution of 16%. However, instantaneous event-water contributions were as high as 66%. The hillside plot runoff response was dominated by saturation-excess overland flow and showed strong threshold behaviour in terms of the antecedent soil moisture storage in the upper 30 cm of the soil plus the event total rainfall amount (ASI + P). Average threshold values for overland flow occurrence ranged from 87 mm for the coppiced Eucalyptus to 137 mm for the young fallow plots (regardless of terrace presence). Stormflow also increased after an ASI+P-threshold was exceeded (100 mm based on the soil moisture sensors for the Eucalyptus plot and 150 mm for the sensors at the tree fallow plots).
These results indicate an increased hydrological connectivity between hillslopes and valley bottom under wetter conditions and that stormflow in the study catchment is strongly affected by variations in seasonal rainfall. The results will be used to validate a hydrological model to determine the net effect of concurrent changes in soil infiltrability and vegetation water use associated with forest loss and recovery on stormflow totals and the seasonal flow regime.
1Bailly, C., de Coignac, G.B., Malvos, C., Ningre, J.M., and Sarrailh, J.M. (1974). Étude de l'influence du couvert naturel et de ses modifications á Madagascar. Expérimentations en bassins versants élémentaires. Cahiers Scientifiques, 4. Centre Scientifique Forestier Tropical, Nogent-sur-Marne, France, 114 pp.
Bob W. Zwartendijk; H.J. (Ilja) van Meerveld; Ryan J. Teuling; Chandra P. Ghimire; L. Adrian Bruijnzeel. Dominant drivers of runoff in a slash-and-burn affected catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleBob W. Zwartendijk, H.J. (Ilja) van Meerveld, Ryan J. Teuling, Chandra P. Ghimire, L. Adrian Bruijnzeel. Dominant drivers of runoff in a slash-and-burn affected catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBob W. Zwartendijk; H.J. (Ilja) van Meerveld; Ryan J. Teuling; Chandra P. Ghimire; L. Adrian Bruijnzeel. 2021. "Dominant drivers of runoff in a slash-and-burn affected catchment in upland Eastern Madagascar." , no. : 1.
The amount and dynamics of urban water storage play an important role in mitigating urban flooding and heat. Assessment of the capacity of cities to store water remains challenging due to the extreme heterogeneity of the urban surface. Evapotranspiration (ET) recession after rainfall events during the period without precipitation, over which the amount of stored water gradually decreases, can provide insight on the water storage capacity of urban surfaces. Assuming ET is the only outgoing flux, the water storage capacity can be estimated based on the timescale and intercept of its recession. In this paper, we test the proposed approach to estimate the water storage capacity at neighborhood scale with latent heat flux data collected by eddy covariance flux towers in eleven contrasting urban sites with different local climate zones, vegetation cover and characteristics and background climates (Amsterdam, Arnhem, Basel, Berlin, Helsinki, Łódź, Melbourne, Mexico City, Seoul, Singapore, Vancouver). Water storage capacities ranging between 1 and 12 mm were found. These values correspond to e-folding timescales lasting from 2 to 10 days, which translate to half-lives of 1.5 to 7 days. We find ET at the start of a drydown to be positively related to vegetation fraction, and long timescales and large storage capacities to be associated with higher vegetation fractions. According to our results, urban water storage capacity is at least one order of magnitude smaller than the known water storage capacity in natural forests and grassland.
Harro Jongen; Gert-Jan Steeneveld; Jason Beringer; Krzysztof Fortuniak; Jinkyu Hong; Je-Woo Hong; Cor Jacobs; Leena Järvi; Fred Meier; Matthias Roth; Natalie Theeuwes; Erik Velasco; Ryan Teuling. Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession . 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleHarro Jongen, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Jason Beringer, Krzysztof Fortuniak, Jinkyu Hong, Je-Woo Hong, Cor Jacobs, Leena Järvi, Fred Meier, Matthias Roth, Natalie Theeuwes, Erik Velasco, Ryan Teuling. Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession . . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHarro Jongen; Gert-Jan Steeneveld; Jason Beringer; Krzysztof Fortuniak; Jinkyu Hong; Je-Woo Hong; Cor Jacobs; Leena Järvi; Fred Meier; Matthias Roth; Natalie Theeuwes; Erik Velasco; Ryan Teuling. 2021. "Urban water storage capacity inferred from observed evapotranspiration recession ." , no. : 1.
Water and energy availability govern the exchange of carbon, energy and water between the land surface and the atmosphere and therefore exert influence on near-surface weather. Roughly one can distinguish between two evaporative regimes: One limited by available energy (under wet conditions) and one limited by available soil moisture (under dry conditions). The transition between these evaporative regimes has been studied on local to global scales using observational and modelled datasets. This revealed the complexity of defining this transition, as it varies both in space and time and is sensitive to climate, soil and vegetation characteristics.
In this study, we characterized this transition by comparing the correlations of evaporation anomalies with (i) soil moisture anomalies (proxy for strength of water control) and (ii) temperature anomalies (proxy for strength of energy control). In the first step, we use observation-based data to derive global patterns of evaporative regimes and establish that the regime transition is sensitive to not only long-term average soil moisture, but also long-term average temperature. Analyzing historical and future climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we found that the ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models produces similar global patterns and sensitivities to energy and water availability. However, there is ample disagreement between results of individual models, with the largest spread around the transition zones. Further, the disagreement between individual models on the total area of water-limited regions increases gradually in time from historical to future experiments. In the next step, we attribute trends in evaporative regimes to trends in water and energy availability, CO2 and vapor pressure deficit. This research reveals how global climate change translates into regional-global scale trends in water- vs. energy-controlled evaporative regimes. Our observational results can constrain modelled global evaporative regimes and inform future model development to decrease the substantial spread across the present model ensemble.
Jasper Denissen; Adriaan Teuling; Wantong Li; Markus Reichstein; Andy Pitman; Rene Orth. Future trends in global water vs. energy-controlled evaporative regimes. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleJasper Denissen, Adriaan Teuling, Wantong Li, Markus Reichstein, Andy Pitman, Rene Orth. Future trends in global water vs. energy-controlled evaporative regimes. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJasper Denissen; Adriaan Teuling; Wantong Li; Markus Reichstein; Andy Pitman; Rene Orth. 2021. "Future trends in global water vs. energy-controlled evaporative regimes." , no. : 1.
Scientific hydrological modellers make multiple decisions during the modelling process, e.g. related to the calibration period and performance metrics. These decisions affect the model results differently. Modelling decisions can refer to several steps in the modelling process. In this project, modelling decisions refer to the decisions made during the whole modelling process, not just the definition of the model structure. Each model output is a hypothesis of the reality; it is an interpretation of the real system underpinned by scientific reasoning and/or expert knowledge. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding about which modelling decisions are taken and why they are taken. Consequently, the influence of modelling decisions is unknown. Quantifying this influence, which is done in this study, can raise awareness among scientists. This study is based on analysis of interviews with scientific hydrological modellers, thus taking actual practices into account. Different modelling decisions were identified from the interviews, which are subsequently implemented and evaluated in a controlled modelling environment, in our case the modular modelling framework Raven. The variation in the results is analysed to determine which decisions affect the results and how they affect the results. This study pinpoints what aspects are important to consider in studying modelling decisions, and can be an incentive to clarify and improve modelling procedures.
Janneke Remmers; Ryan Teuling; Lieke Melsen. The impact of modelling decisions in hydrological modelling. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleJanneke Remmers, Ryan Teuling, Lieke Melsen. The impact of modelling decisions in hydrological modelling. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJanneke Remmers; Ryan Teuling; Lieke Melsen. 2021. "The impact of modelling decisions in hydrological modelling." , no. : 1.
The land surface influences the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) through its impacts on the partitioning of available energy into evaporation and warming. Previous research on understanding this complex link focused mainly on site-scale flux observations, gridded satellite observations, climate modeling, and machine-learning experiments. Observational evidence of land surface conditions, among which soil moisture, impacting ABL properties at intermediate landscape scales is lacking. Here, we use a combination of global weather balloon soundings, satellite-observed soil moisture, and a coupled land-atmosphere model to infer the soil moisture impact on the ABL. The inferred relationship between soil moisture and surface flux partitioning reflects distinctive energy- and water-limited regimes, even at the landscape scale. We find significantly different behavior between those two regimes, associating dry conditions with on average warmer (≈3 K), higher (≈400 m) and drier (≈1 kPa) afternoon ABLs than wet conditions. This evidence of land–atmosphere coupling from globally distributed atmospheric measurements highlights the need for an accurate representation of land–atmosphere coupling into climate models and their climate change projections.
Jasper M. C. Denissen; René Orth; Hendrik Wouters; Diego G. Miralles; Chiel C. van Heerwaarden; Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano; Adriaan J. Teuling. Soil moisture signature in global weather balloon soundings. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2021, 4, 1 -8.
AMA StyleJasper M. C. Denissen, René Orth, Hendrik Wouters, Diego G. Miralles, Chiel C. van Heerwaarden, Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, Adriaan J. Teuling. Soil moisture signature in global weather balloon soundings. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2021; 4 (1):1-8.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJasper M. C. Denissen; René Orth; Hendrik Wouters; Diego G. Miralles; Chiel C. van Heerwaarden; Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano; Adriaan J. Teuling. 2021. "Soil moisture signature in global weather balloon soundings." npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 4, no. 1: 1-8.
Hydrological models are usually systems of nonlinear differential equations for which no analytical solutions exist and thus rely on approximate numerical solutions. While some studies have investigated the relationship between numerical method choice and model error, the extent to which extreme precipitation like that observed during hurricanes Harvey and Katrina impacts numerical error of hydrological models is still unknown. This knowledge is relevant in light of climate change, where many regions will likely experience more intense precipitation events. In this experiment, a large number of hydrographs is generated with the modular modeling framework FUSE, using eight numerical techniques across a variety of forcing datasets. Multiple model structures, parameter sets, and initial conditions are incorporated for generality. The computational expense and numerical error associated with each hydrograph were recorded. It was found that numerical error (root mean square error) usually increases with precipitation intensity and decreases with event duration. Some numerical methods constrain errors much more effectively than others, sometimes by many orders of magnitude. Of the tested numerical methods, a second-order adaptive explicit method is found to be the most efficient because it has both low numerical error and low computational cost. A basic literature review indicates that many popular modeling codes use numerical techniques that were suggested by this experiment to be sub-optimal. We conclude that relatively large numerical errors might be common in current models, and because these will likely become larger as the climate changes, we advocate for the use of low cost, low error numerical methods.
Peter T. La Follette; Adriaan J. Teuling; Nans Addor; Martyn Clark; Koen Jansen; Lieke A. Melsen. Numerical daemons of hydrological models are summoned by extreme precipitation. 2021, 2021, 1 -32.
AMA StylePeter T. La Follette, Adriaan J. Teuling, Nans Addor, Martyn Clark, Koen Jansen, Lieke A. Melsen. Numerical daemons of hydrological models are summoned by extreme precipitation. . 2021; 2021 ():1-32.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter T. La Follette; Adriaan J. Teuling; Nans Addor; Martyn Clark; Koen Jansen; Lieke A. Melsen. 2021. "Numerical daemons of hydrological models are summoned by extreme precipitation." 2021, no. : 1-32.