Biogas development is expected to contribute to the National Recovery and Resilience plan to overcome the COVID-19 shock. Estimation of the agricultural biogas potential in economic terms can contribute to refining policies inciting effective sector development. In this paper, we attempt to do so by modeling a biogas chain from dedicated crops and livestock waste. This was achieved by coupling farming models to the biogas industry in a partial equilibrium framework. This allows for a comprehensive investigation of alternative measures in technology, size, spatial distribution and land use change. The integrated model was implemented in Lubelskie for the previous policy (green certificates) and the current policy (auction market). In both cases, the bottom-up profit driven optimization resulted in approximately 40 MWel, which shows a robust economic potential more than four times the biogas sector’s actual capacity in the region, also providing the detailed structure of the sector. When focusing on the industry structure, both scenarios give similar results regarding 1–2 MWel plant size close to the observed situation. The model also suggests a large number of new facilities <250 kWel, twice as important under scenario 2, indicating that other conditions beyond economy profitability should be fulfilled for further sector development.

Echoing the bioenergy development initiative in Poland, high expectations are pinned on sweet sorghum usage for biogas plants. In contrast to its high profile in the industry, the research on the introduction and production of sorghum in Poland is lagging behind. To solve this issue, in this paper we have developed a spatial‐agent dynamic model of the agricultural land use and applied the model to eastern Poland. The model suggests that the economic and technical potential of sweet sorghum in this region is 6 and 7.5 million tonnes, respectively. Its introduction process largely follows the pattern of a typical industry life cycle, with the startup at the price of 8.20 €/tonne. Along with the market penetration of sorghum, a dramatic land use change of conventional crops can be foreseen, even with a land use competition among those crops. We believe that the exploitation of unutilized agricultural land resources and improving the yield of sorghum are helpful to alleviate this land use conflict. However, a higher food demand in the future and climate change may constrain the role of sorghum. This first comprehensive and high‐resolution study to its kind in Poland can help assess the country's bioenergy policies and contribute to the development of the biogas industry.