Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

Topographic factors are critical for influencing vegetation distribution patterns, and studying the interactions between them can enhance our understanding of future vegetation dynamics. We used the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (MODIS NDVI) image dataset (2000–2019), combined with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and vegetation type data for trend analysis, and explored NDVI variation and its relationship with topographic factors through an integrated geographically-weighted model in the Three Parallel Rivers Region (TPRR) of southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) in the past 20 years. Our results indicated that there was no significant increase of NDVI in the entire basin between 2000–2019, except for the Lancang River basin. In the year 2004, abrupt changes in NDVI were observed across the entire basin and each sub-basin. During 2000–2019, the mean NDVI value of the whole basin increased initially and then decreased with the increasing elevation. However, it changed marginally with variations in slope and aspect. We observed a distinct spatial heterogeneity in vegetation patterns with elevation, with higher NDVI in the southern regions NDVI than those in the north as a whole. Most of the vegetation cover was concentrated in the slope range of 8~35°, with no significant difference in distribution except flat land. Furthermore, from 2000 to 2019, the vegetation cover in the TPRR showed an improving trend with the changes of various topographic factors, with the largest improvement area (36.10%) in the slightly improved category. The improved region was mainly distributed in the source area of the Jinsha River basin and the southern part of the whole basin. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis showed that elevation was negatively correlated with NDVI trends in most areas, especially in the middle reaches of Nujiang River basin and Jinsha River basin, where the influence of slope and aspect on NDVI change was considerably much smaller than elevation. Our results confirmed the importance of topographic factors on vegetation growth processes and have implications for understanding the sustainable development of mountain ecosystems.

Slope aspect can cause environmental heterogeneity over relatively short distances, which in turn affects plant distribution, community structure, and ecosystem function. However, the response and adaptation strategies of plants to slope aspects via regulating their physiological and morphological properties still remain poorly understood, especially in alpine ecosystems. Here, we selected four common species, including Bistorta macrophylla, Bistorta vivipara, Cremanthodium discoideum, and Deschampsia littoralis, to test how biomass allocation and functional traits of height, individual leaf area, individual leaf mass, and specific leaf area (SLA) respond to variation in slope aspect in the Minshan Mountain, eastern Tibetan Plateau. We found that the slope aspect affected SLA and stem, flower mass fraction with higher values at southwest slope aspect, which is potentially related to light environment. The low-temperature environment caused by the slope aspect facilitates the accumulation of root biomass especially at the northeast slope aspect. Cremanthodium discoideum and D. littoralis invested more in belowground biomass in southeast and southwest slope aspects, although a large number of significant isometric allocations were found in B. macrophylla and B. vivipara. Finally, we found that both biotic and abiotic factors are responsible for the variation in total biomass with contrasting effects across different species. These results suggest that slope aspect, as an important topographic variable, strongly influences plant survival, growth, and propagation. Therefore, habitat heterogeneity stemming from topographic factors (slope aspect) can prevent biotic homogenization and thus contribute to the improvement of diverse ecosystem functioning.

The alpine timberline, an ecosystem ecotone, indicates climatic change and is tending to shift toward higher altitudes because of an increase in global warming. However, spatiotemporal variations of the alpine timberline are not consistent on a global scale. The abundant and highest alpine timberline, located on the Tibetan Plateau, is less subject to human activity and disturbance. Although many studies have investigated the alpine timberline on the Tibetan Plateau, large-scale monitoring of spatial-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of the alpine timberline remain uncertain and inaccurate. Hence, the Gongga Mountain on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau was chosen as the study area because of the most complete natural altitudinal zonation. We used the Otsu method on Google Earth Engine to extract the alpine timberline from 1987–2019 based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Then, the alpine timberline spatiotemporal patterns and the effect of topography on alpine timberline distribution were explored. Four hillsides on the western Gongga Mountain were selected to examine the hillside differences and drivers of the alpine timberline based on principal component analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The results indicated that the elevation range of alpine timberline was 3203–4889 m, and the vegetation coverage increased significantly (p < 0.01) near the alpine timberline ecotone on Gongga Mountain. Moreover, there was spatial heterogeneity in dynamics of alpine timberline, and some regions showed no regular trend in variations. The spatial pattern of the alpine timberline was generally high in the west, low in the east, and primarily distributed on 15–55° slopes. Besides, the drivers of the alpine timberline have the hillside differences, and the sunny and shady slopes possessed different driving factors. Thus, our results highlight the effects of topography and climate on the alpine timberline on different hillsides. These findings could provide a better approach to study the dynamics and formation of alpine timberlines.