Background: The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithms (SORG-MLAs) estimate 90-day and 1-year survival in patients with long-bone metastases undergoing surgical treatment and have demonstrated good discriminatory ability on internal validation. However, the performance of a prediction model could potentially vary by race or region, and the SORG-MLA must be externally validated in an Asian cohort. Furthermore, the authors of the original developmental study did not consider the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, a survival prognosticator repeatedly validated in other studies, in their algorithms because of missing data. Questions/purposes: (1) Is the SORG-MLA generalizable to Taiwanese patients for predicting 90-day and 1-year mortality? (2) Is the ECOG score an independent factor associated with 90-day and 1-year mortality while controlling for SORG-MLA predictions? Methods: All 356 patients who underwent surgery for long-bone metastases between 2014 and 2019 at one tertiary care center in Taiwan were included. Ninety-eight percent (349 of 356) of patients were of Han Chinese descent. The median (range) patient age was 61 years (25 to 95), 52% (184 of 356) were women, and the median BMI was 23 kg/m² (13 to 39 kg/m²). The most common primary tumors were lung cancer (33% [116 of 356]) and breast cancer (16% [58 of 356]). Fifty-five percent (195 of 356) of patients presented with a complete pathologic fracture. Intramedullary nailing was the most commonly performed type of surgery (59% [210 of 356]), followed by plate screw fixation (23% [81 of 356]) and endoprosthetic reconstruction (18% [65 of 356]). Six patients were lost to follow-up within 90 days; 30 were lost to follow-up within 1 year. Eighty-five percent (301 of 356) of patients were followed until death or for at least 2 years. Survival was 82% (287 of 350) at 90 days and 49% (159 of 326) at 1 year. The model’s performance metrics included discrimination (concordance index [c-index]), calibration (intercept and slope), and Brier score. In general, a c-index of 0.5 indicates random guess and a c-index of 0.8 denotes excellent discrimination. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. The Brier score of a prediction model must be compared with and ideally should be smaller than the score of the null model. A decision curve analysis was then performed for the 90-day and 1-year prediction models to evaluate their net benefit across a range of different threshold probabilities. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate whether the ECOG score was an independent prognosticator while controlling for the SORG-MLA’s predictions. We did not perform retraining/recalibration because we were not trying to update the SORG-MLA algorithm in this study. Results: The SORG-MLA had good discriminatory ability at both timepoints, with a c-index of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.86) for 90-day survival prediction and a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.89) for 1-year survival prediction. However, the calibration analysis showed that the SORG-MLAs tended to underestimate Taiwanese patients’ survival (90-day survival prediction: calibration intercept 0.78 [95% CI 0.46 to 1.10], calibration slope 0.74 [95% CI 0.53 to 0.96]; 1-year survival prediction: calibration intercept 0.75 [95% CI 0.49 to 1.00], calibration slope 1.22 [95% CI 0.95 to 1.49]). The Brier score of the 90-day and 1-year SORG-MLA prediction models was lower than their respective null model (0.12 versus 0.16 for 90-day prediction; 0.16 versus 0.25 for 1-year prediction), indicating good overall performance of SORG-MLAs at these two timepoints. Decision curve analysis showed SORG-MLAs provided net benefits when threshold probabilities ranged from 0.40 to 0.95 for 90-day survival prediction and from 0.15 to 1.0 for 1-year prediction. The ECOG score was an independent factor associated with 90-day mortality (odds ratio 1.94 [95% CI 1.01 to 3.73]) but not 1-year mortality (OR 1.07 [95% CI 0.53 to 2.17]) after controlling for SORG-MLA predictions for 90-day and 1-year survival, respectively. Conclusion: SORG-MLAs retained good discriminatory ability in Taiwanese patients with long-bone metastases, although their actual survival time was slightly underestimated. More international validation and incremental value studies that address factors such as the ECOG score are warranted to refine the algorithms, which can be freely accessed online at https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/extremitymetssurvival/. Level of Evidence: Level III, therapeutic study.

The caudal discs of rats have been proposed as a puncture model in which intervertebral disc (IVD) degeneration can be induced and novel therapies can be tested. For biological repair, treatments for ongoing IVD degeneration are ideally administered during the earlier stages. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the optimal puncture needle size for creating a model that mimicked the earlier stages of IVD degeneration. According to the disc height index, histologic score, and MRI grading, a puncture needle sized 21G or larger induced rapid degenerative processes in rat caudal discs during the initial 2–4 weeks. The degenerative changes were severe and continued deteriorating after 4 weeks. Conversely, puncture injury induced by needles sized 25G or smaller also produced degenerative changes in rat caudal discs during initial 2–4 weeks; however, the changes were less severe. Furthermore, the degenerative process became stabilized and showed no further deterioration or spontaneous recovery after 4 weeks. In the discs punctured by 25G needles, the expression of collagen I was increased at 2–4 weeks with a gradually fibrotic transformation thereafter. The expressions of collagen II and SOX9 were enhanced initially but returned to pre‐injury levels at 4–8 weeks. The above‐mentioned findings were more compatible with earlier degeneration in discs punctured by needles sized 25G or smaller than by needles sized 21G or larger, and the appropriate timing for intradiscal administration of proposed therapeutic agents would be 4 weeks or longer after puncture. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 36:202–211, 2018.

Study Design: A retrospective cohort study. Objective: To investigate the factors contributing to the development of postoperative distal junctional kyphosis (DJK) in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients who underwent posterior spinal fusion (PSF) with lowest instrumented vertebrae (LIV) at or above L1. Methods: Patients with Lenke type 1 or 2 curves who underwent PSF with LIV at or above L1 with a minimum follow-up of 2 years were evaluated. The primary outcome measure was the occurrence of postoperative DJK. Radiographic parameters of sagittal alignment and inclusion/exclusion of sagittal stable vertebra (SSV) in PSF were analyzed to determine their associations with the occurrence of postoperative DJK. Results: Overall, 122 patients (mean age: 15.1 ± 3.2 years) were included. The overall incidence of postoperative DJK was 6.6%. DJK was observed in 19.0% (8/42) of patients whose SSV was not included in PSF and not in patients with SSV included in PSF (n = 80). In the SSV-excluded group, univariate analysis found two significant risk factors for DJK: postoperative thoracic kyphosis (TK, T5-12) and postoperative thoracolumbar kyphosis (TLK, T11-L2). The ROC curve revealed that postoperative TK ≥ 25° and TLK ≥ 10° best predicted the occurrence of postoperative DJK in the SSV-excluded group. The incidence was significantly higher in cases with postoperative TK ≥ 25° or TLK ≥ 10° (7/13 = 53.8%) than in those with postoperative TK < 25° and TLK < 10° (1/29 = 3.4%). Conclusions: The current study revealed that postoperative TK ≥ 25° or postoperative TLK ≥ 10° with SSV excluded from PSF were related to DJK after PSF for Lenke type 1 and type 2 AIS. When the SSV is intended to be spared from PSF to save more motion segments, TK and TLK should be carefully evaluated and attained in a lesser magnitude (TK < 25°, TLK < 10°) after surgery.