The free energy principle (FEP) offers a variational calculus-based description for how biological agents persevere through interactions with their environment. Active inference (AI) is a corollary of the FEP, which states that biological agents act to fulfill prior beliefs about preferred future observations (target priors). Purposeful behavior then results from variational free energy minimization with respect to a generative model of the environment with included target priors. However, manual derivations for free energy minimizing algorithms on custom dynamic models can become tedious and error-prone. While probabilistic programming (PP) techniques enable automatic derivation of inference algorithms on free-form models, full automation of AI requires specialized tools for inference on dynamic models, together with the description of an experimental protocol that governs the interaction between the agent and its simulated environment. The contributions of the present paper are two-fold. Firstly, we illustrate how AI can be automated with the use of ForneyLab, a recent PP toolbox that specializes in variational inference on flexibly definable dynamic models. More specifically, we describe AI agents in a dynamic environment as probabilistic state space models (SSM) and perform inference for perception and control in these agents by message passing on a factor graph representation of the SSM. Secondly, we propose a formal experimental protocol for simulated AI. We exemplify how this protocol leads to goal-directed behavior for flexibly definable AI agents in two classical RL examples, namely the Bayesian thermostat and the mountain car parking problems.

Accurate evaluation of Bayesian model evidence for a given data set is a fundamental problem in model development. Since evidence evaluations are usually intractable, in practice variational free energy (VFE) minimization provides an attractive alternative, as the VFE is an upper bound on negative model log-evidence (NLE). In order to improve tractability of the VFE, it is common to manipulate the constraints in the search space for the posterior distribution of the latent variables. Unfortunately, constraint manipulation may also lead to a less accurate estimate of the NLE. Thus, constraint manipulation implies an engineering trade-off between tractability and accuracy of model evidence estimation. In this paper, we develop a unifying account of constraint manipulation for variational inference in models that can be represented by a (Forney-style) factor graph, for which we identify the Bethe Free Energy as an approximation to the VFE. We derive well-known message passing algorithms from first principles, as the result of minimizing the constrained Bethe Free Energy (BFE). The proposed method supports evaluation of the BFE in factor graphs for model scoring and development of new message passing-based inference algorithms that potentially improve evidence estimation accuracy.

The Free Energy Principle (FEP) postulates that biological agents perceive and interact with their environment in order to minimize a Variational Free Energy (VFE) with respect to a generative model of their environment. The inference of a policy (future control sequence) according to the FEP is known as Active Inference (AIF). The AIF literature describes multiple VFE objectives for policy planning that lead to epistemic (information-seeking) behavior. However, most objectives have limited modeling flexibility. This paper approaches epistemic behavior from a constrained Bethe Free Energy (CBFE) perspective. Crucially, variational optimization of the CBFE can be expressed in terms of message passing on free-form generative models. The key intuition behind the CBFE is that we impose a point-mass constraint on predicted outcomes, which explicitly encodes the assumption that the agent will make observations in the future. We interpret the CBFE objective in terms of its constituent behavioral drives. We then illustrate resulting behavior of the CBFE by planning and interacting with a simulated T-maze environment. Simulations for the T-maze task illustrate how the CBFE agent exhibits an epistemic drive, and actively plans ahead to account for the impact of predicted outcomes. Compared to an EFE agent, the CBFE agent incurs expected reward in significantly more environmental scenarios. We conclude that CBFE optimization by message passing suggests a general mechanism for epistemic-aware AIF in free-form generative models.

Active inference (ActInf) is an emerging theory that explains perception and action in biological agents in terms of minimizing a free energy bound on Bayesian surprise. Goal-directed behavior is elicited by introducing prior beliefs on the underlying generative model. In contrast to prior beliefs, which constrain all realizations of a random variable, we propose an alternative approach through chance constraints, which allow for a (typically small) probability of constraint violation, and demonstrate how such constraints can be used as intrinsic drivers for goal-directed behavior in ActInf. We illustrate how chance-constrained ActInf weights all imposed (prior) constraints on the generative model, allowing, for example, for a trade-off between robust control and empirical chance constraint violation. Second, we interpret the proposed solution within a message passing framework. Interestingly, the message passing interpretation is not only relevant to the context of ActInf, but also provides a general-purpose approach that can account for chance constraints on graphical models. The chance constraint message updates can then be readily combined with other prederived message update rules without the need for custom derivations. The proposed chance-constrained message passing framework thus accelerates the search for workable models in general and can be used to complement message-passing formulations on generative neural models.

Bayesian state and parameter estimation are automated effectively in a variety of probabilistic programming languages. The process of model comparison on the other hand, which still requires error-prone and time-consuming manual derivations, is often overlooked despite its importance. This paper efficiently automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination by message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node. Parameter and state inference, and model comparison can then be executed simultaneously using message passing with scale factors. This approach shortens the model design cycle and allows for the straightforward extension to hierarchical and temporal model priors to accommodate for modeling complicated time-varying processes.

Speech enhancement in hearing aids remains difficult in nonstationary acoustic environments. This paper introduces AIDA-2, a unified modular framework that formulates signal processing, learning, and personalization as Bayesian inference with explicit uncertainty tracking. The proposed framework replaces ad hoc algorithm design with a single probabilistic generative model that continuously adapts to changing acoustic conditions and user preferences. It extends spectral subtraction with principled mechanisms for in situ personalization and adaptation to acoustic context. The system is implemented as an interconnected probabilistic state-space model, and inference is performed via variational message passing in the RxInfer.jl probabilistic programming environment, enabling real-time Bayesian processing under hearing-aid constraints. We focus the evaluation on the warped-frequency filter bank (WFB) and speech enhancement model (SEM), evaluated on the public VoiceBank+DEMAND corpus. Additionally, an acoustic context model (ACM) and end-user model (EUM) are described architecturally. The evaluated system requires 85 parameters, two orders of magnitude fewer than the tens of thousands to millions of trainable parameters used by contemporary deep-learning baselines. This proof of concept establishes an interpretable, data-efficient foundation for uncertainty-aware hearing-aid processing, pointing toward devices that learn continuously through probabilistic inference.