Seismic background noise dramatically decreased as a result of lockdown measures in place for mitigating the spread of COVID-19.

Linking volcano‐seismic signals with subsurface processes is crucial to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions. One of the most enigmatic signals is shallow volcanic tremor, a highly periodic ground vibration that is typically sourced beneath the crater of active volcanoes, is long lasting (from minutes to years), appears during unrest periods, and frequently precedes eruptions. In this paper, we demonstrate that shallow tremor can be produced by periodic pressure oscillations emerging spontaneously beneath permeable media (e.g., fractured magma caps). These pressure oscillations are the result of three concurrent processes: (a) the transient porous flow of gases through the permeable cap; (b) the temporary accumulation of these gases beneath the cap, forming a gas pocket; and (c) the random supply of volatiles from deeper levels. For highly permeable media (≥10⁻¹² m²; realistic for shallow volcanic edifices), the pressure in subsurface gas pockets is governed by the equation of a linear oscillator; hence, under proper conditions, periodic pressure oscillations emerge during the transfer of gases from the Earth's interior to the surface. Our model is consistent with geophysical data showing that the tremor source is localized at a fixed region and can explain the main characteristics of ground vibrations, including frequency gliding, variations of seismic amplitude prior to eruptions, and the different types of tremor observed. For thin permeable caps (<100 m), we find that different eruption mechanisms (e.g., magma ascent vs. cap sealing) leave distinct footprints in the tremor properties, thus opening new perspectives to forecast the type and style of impending eruptions.

A long-standing question in Earth Science is the extent to which seismic and volcanic activity can be regulated by tidal stresses, a repeatable and predictable external excitation induced by the Moon-Sun gravitational force. Fortnightly tides, a ~14-day amplitude modulation of the daily tidal stresses that is associated to lunar cycles, have been suggested to affect volcano dynamics. However, previous studies found contradictory results and remain mostly inconclusive. Here we study how fortnightly tides have affected Ruapehu volcano (New Zealand) from 2004 to 2016 by analysing the rolling correlation between lunar cycles and seismic amplitude recorded close to the crater. The long-term (~1-year) correlation is found to increase significantly (up to confidence level of 5-sigma) during the ~3 months preceding the 2007 phreatic eruption of Ruapehu, thus revealing that the volcano is sensitive to fortnightly tides when it is prone to explode. We show through a mechanistic model that the real-time monitoring of seismic sensitivity to lunar cycles may help to detect the clogging of active volcanic vents, and thus to better forecast phreatic volcanic eruptions.

Significance: Natural geysers episodically erupt liquid water and steam and, thus, provide a window into multiphase hydrothermal systems. The size of and interval between eruptions can shift over time due to changes in the hydrothermal system and due to deeper magmatic processes. An improved understanding of geyser dynamics can provide insights into other multiphase episodic processes on Earth and other planets that result from localized input of energy and mass (e.g., volcanism).

The 2012–2016 White Island (Whakaari) eruption sequence encompassed six small explosive events that included one steam driven and five explosive phreato-magmatic eruptions. More enigmatic, a dome was observed at the back of the vent and crater lake in November 2012. Its emplacement date could not be easily determined due to persistent steam from the evaporating crater lake and because of the very low levels of discrete volcanic earthquakes associated with its growth. During this period, seismicity also included persistent tremor with dominant frequencies in the 2–5 Hz range. Detailed assessment of the tremor reveals a very slow evolution of the spectral peaks from low to higher frequencies. These gliding spectral lines evolved over a three-month time period beginning in late September 2012 and persisting until early January 2013, when the tremor stabilised. As part of the dome emplacement episode, the crater lake progressively dried, leaving isolated pools which then promoted persistent mud/sulphur eruption activity starting in mid-January 2013. We interpret the emplacement of the dome as a non-explosive process where the hot, mostly degassed, magma intruded slowly through the hydrothermal system in late September 2012 and cooled in a relatively quiet state. The tremor evolution might reflect the slow contraction of subsurface resonant cavities, which increased the pitch of the peak resonant frequency through time. Alternatively, spectral evolution might reflect a ‘comb function’ due to clockwork beating of the slowly cooling dome, although direct evidence of clockwork beats is not seen in the waveform data. Finally, it might represent frothing of the hydrothermal system ahead of the slowly propagating magma.