Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.

Climate change affects the marine environment on many levels with profound consequences for numerous biological, chemical, and physical processes. Benthic bioturbation is one of the most relevant and significant processes for benthic-pelagic coupling and biogeochemical fluxes in marine sediments, such as the uptake, transport, and remineralisation of organic carbon. However, only little is known about how climate change affects the distribution and intensity of benthic bioturbation of a shallow temperate shelf sea system such as the southern North Sea. In this study, we modelled and projected changes in bioturbation potential (BP_p) under a continuous global warming scenario for seven southern North Sea key bioturbators: Abra alba, Amphiura filiformis, Callianassa subterranea, Echinocardium cordatum, Goniada maculata, Nephtys hombergii, and Nucula nitidosa. Spatial changes in species bioturbation intensity are simulated for the years 2050 and 2099 based on one species distribution model per species driven by bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B. Local mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 °C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately decrease by 1.7. Our results show that the considered benthic species are strongly influenced by the temperature increase. Although the total BP remained rather constant in the southern North Sea, the BP_p for four out of seven species was projected to increase, mainly due to a simultaneous northward range expansion, while the BP_p in the core area of the southern North Sea declined for the same species. Bioturbation of the most important species, Amphiura filiformis and Echinocardium cordatum, showed no substantial change in the spatial distribution, but over time. The BP_p of E. cordatum remained almost constant until 2099, while the BP_p of A. filiformis decreased by 41%. The northward expansion of some species and the decline of most species in the south led to a change of relative contribution to bioturbation in the southern North Sea. These results indicate that some of the selected key bioturbators in the southern North Sea might partly compensate the decrease in bioturbation by others. But especially in the depositional areas where bioturbation plays a specifically important role for ecosystem functioning, bioturbation potential declined until 2099, which might affect the biochemical cycling in sediments of some areas of the southern North Sea.

The characteristics and variability of intraseasonal internal coastal Kelvin waves (CKWs) along the Bay of Bengal (BoB) waveguide are investigated in the context of global warming by employing a regional ocean model. The analyzed period covers 120 years from 1980 to 2099, which includes the historical scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario. CKW information is successfully extracted from the temperature anomalies along the pycnocline by applying a newly developed methodology. The analysis reveals that intraseasonal CKWs in the BoB are highly in accordance with the intraseasonal zonal wind stress in the western equatorial Indian Ocean; the downwelling CKW lags the equatorial intraseasonal westerly winds, and the upwelling CKW lags the equatorial intraseasonal easterly winds. The CKWs significantly affect subsurface characteristics at the eastern BoB boundary, and the weakening of CKWs near the Irrawaddy Delta tip is a general feature occurring in the subsurface. With respect to the long-term scale, the occurrence of significant CKWs is predicted to be more frequent in the future under the high emissions pathway. Remarkably, the monthly climatology of CKWs varies over time; unlike the first two 30-yr analyzed periods, significant CKWs are predicted to mainly occur around August during the last two 30-yr periods due to the corresponding variabilities in the equatorial wind field, suggesting that the BoB characteristics may greatly deviate from the current climatological state. The characteristics and variability of intraseasonal internal coastal Kelvin waves (CKWs) along the Bay of Bengal (BoB) waveguide are investigated in the context of global warming by employing a regional ocean model. The analyzed period covers 120 years from 1980 to 2099, which includes the historical scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario. CKW information is successfully extracted from the temperature anomalies along the pycnocline by applying a newly developed methodology. The analysis reveals that intraseasonal CKWs in the BoB are highly in accordance with the intraseasonal zonal wind stress in the western equatorial Indian Ocean; the downwelling CKW lags the equatorial intraseasonal westerly winds, and the upwelling CKW lags the equatorial intraseasonal easterly winds. The CKWs significantly affect subsurface characteristics at the eastern BoB boundary, and the weakening of CKWs near the Irrawaddy Delta tip is a general feature occurring in the subsurface. With respect to the long-term scale, the occurrence of significant CKWs is predicted to be more frequent in the future under the high emissions pathway. Remarkably, the monthly climatology of CKWs varies over time; unlike the first two 30-yr analyzed periods, significant CKWs are predicted to mainly occur around August during the last two 30-yr periods due to the corresponding variabilities in the equatorial wind field, suggesting that the BoB characteristics may greatly deviate from the current climatological state.

The impact of fortnightly stratification variability induced by tide–topography interaction on the generation of baroclinic tides in the Luzon Strait is numerically investigated using the MIT general circulation model. The simulation shows that advection of buoyancy by baroclinic flows results in daily oscillations and a fortnightly variability in the stratification at the main generation site of internal tides. As the stratification for the whole Luzon Strait is periodically redistributed by these flows, the energy analysis indicates that the fortnightly stratification variability can significantly affect the energy transfer between barotropic and baroclinic tides. Due to this effect on stratification variability by the baroclinic flows, the phases of baroclinic potential energy variability do not match the phase of barotropic forcing in the fortnight time scale. This phenomenon leads to the fact that the maximum baroclinic tides may not be generated during the maximum barotropic forcing. Therefore, a significant impact of stratification variability on the generation of baroclinic tides is demonstrated by our modeling study, which suggests a lead–lag relation between barotropic tidal forcing and maximum baroclinic response in the Luzon Strait within the fortnightly tidal cycle.

In order to implement successful coastal management and protect corals, it is imperative to understand the Nha Trang Bay’s coastal processes and take adequate measures to protect corals and reef structure. This paper aimed to analyze whether sudden variations in physical parameters, such as temperature, could be potentially harmful to coastal coral reefs, in addition to anthropogenic factors such as pollution and intensive fishing. In this paper, the first long-term observation (2008–2019) of temperatures, not only from SST data, but also in situ in coral reefs (10 and 18 m depth) at Nha Trang Bay, South Central Vietnam, was investigated. The data showed that wind-induced upwelling during summer mainly govern the coastal region. In contrast, wind-induced downwelling was found during winter, visible in all three investigated water layers (SST, 10 and 18 m). In winter, the vertical mixing is strong and there is virtually no time-lag between the layers. In summer a scattering layer was formed, the phenomenon where a layer of water with different properties (such as temperature or salinity) is formed, blocking the sinking of water. In summer, correlations with air temperature were not significant, nor were correlations with night cooling, thus having implications for the distribution of nutrients and the health of the coral reefs. However, this was only the situation near the coast. Wavelet analysis shows that the short-term variability is significantly more substantial, caused by the shallow depth of the thermocline, which is much stronger affected by tidal and weather events than in winter. As a result of the combination of large yearly temperature variations (21oC to 31oC) plus increased sediment deposition in the rainy seasons, reefs close to the shore are generally not well-developed. This paper strongly advocates for science-based monitoring of coral reef conditions and underscores the need for law enforcement within the Marine Protected Area of Nha Trang Bay.