Given the increasing occurrence of deviant activities in online platforms, it is of paramount importance to develop methods and tools that allow in-depth analysis and understanding to then develop effective countermeasures. This work proposes a framework towards detecting statistically significant change points in terrorism-related time series, which may indicate the occurrence of events to be paid attention to. These change points may reflect changes in the attitude towards and/or engagement with terrorism-related activities and events, possibly signifying, for instance, an escalation in the radicalization process. In particular, the proposed framework involves: (i) classification of online textual data as terrorism- and hate speech-related, which can be considered as indicators of a potential criminal or terrorist activity; and (ii) change point analysis in the time series generated by these data. The use of change point detection (CPD) algorithms in the produced time series of the aforementioned indicators—either in a univariate or two-dimensional case—can lead to the estimation of statistically significant changes in their structural behavior at certain time locations. To evaluate the proposed framework, we apply it on a publicly available dataset related to jihadist forums. Finally, topic detection on the estimated change points is implemented to further assess its effectiveness.
This paper proposes a unified framework for the detection of statistically significant changes in time series related to Bitcoin transactions. The time locations of these changes are linked to the occurrences of events which could be further investigated aiming to reveal potential illicit activity. The proposed framework includes: (a) the extraction of 28 features of interest in the form of time series from the Bitcoin transaction history; (b) the selection of features among the extracted ones based on the Partition Around Medoids clustering approach; and (c) the change point analysis of the multivariate time series which is formulated by the medoid time series of each cluster. This analysis enables the identification of structural breaks in the underlying behavior of the time series of interest at certain time points. The proposed framework is applied on the Bitcoin transactions of two entities that have been involved in illicit activities, namely Pirate@40, who orchestrated a high-yield investment programme, and the MintPal Bitcoin exchange platform that was hacked. The analysis results indicate that the estimated change points can be linked to certain event occurrences which may affect the transaction activity and could be further investigated for potential links to illicit actions.
With the constant growth of social media in our daily lives, a huge amount of information is generated online by multiple social networks. However, what can we actually extract with the science of social media sensing? It is a very challenging task to mine meaningful data out of this vast crowdsourcing volume, which also rapidly changes or ends up being misleading. The scope of this paper is to present different approaches that overcome these challenges and utilize social media information from various sources. This work illustrates applications that: improve the performance of architectural design; preserve the cultural heritage; enhance citizen security; provide early detection for disasters; and discover creeping crisis events. A large variety of analyses are presented, including, among other, disaster or crime event detection, user identity linkage, relevance classification, and community detection techniques. The evaluation of the presented methods is also given in this article, proving that they can be practical and valuable in many applications.
This paper proposes a unified framework for analyzing cryptocurrency transaction networks, employing a composite approach that combines key actor identification and change point detection. At first, the framework identifies a representative key actor in a network of cryptocurrency transactions and retrieves its relevant transactions. Then, multiple features are extracted in the form of time series from its transaction history, providing an overview of its activity over time. In addition, feature selection is applied to reduce overlapping information among the extracted features and, finally, change point detection is utilized to identify time locations of significant changes in the selected features. To showcase the applicability of the proposed framework, four cryptocurrency transaction networks are used related to the tokens DAI, WLUNA, USTC and PAX. The analysis results indicate that the estimated change points often coincide with market events that may have influenced the network’s transaction behavior. Overall, this paper presents a new approach for understanding the dynamics of cryptocurrency transaction networks, where, by identifying and examining their representative key actors, we aim to obtain a comprehensive characterization of its overall structure.