The brain changes as we age and these changes are associated with functional deterioration and neurodegenerative disease. It is vital that we better understand individual differences in the brain ageing process; hence, techniques for making individualised predictions of brain ageing have been developed. We present evidence supporting the use of neuroimaging-based 'brain age' as a biomarker of an individual's brain health. Increasingly, research is showing how brain disease or poor physical health negatively impacts brain age. Importantly, recent evidence shows that having an 'older'-appearing brain relates to advanced physiological and cognitive ageing and the risk of mortality. We discuss controversies surrounding brain age and highlight emerging trends such as the use of multimodality neuroimaging and the employment of 'deep learning' methods.

With the aging population, prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases is increasing, thus placing a growing burden on individuals and the whole society. However, individual rates of aging are shaped by a great variety of and the interactions between environmental, genetic, and epigenetic factors. Establishing biomarkers of the neuroanatomical aging processes exemplifies a new trend in neuroscience in order to provide risk-assessments and predictions for age-associated neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric diseases at a single-subject level. The "Brain Age Gap Estimation (BrainAGE)" method constitutes the first and actually most widely applied concept for predicting and evaluating individual brain age based on structural MRI. This review summarizes all studies published within the last 10 years that have established and utilized the BrainAGE method to evaluate the effects of interaction of genes, environment, life burden, diseases, or life time on individual neuroanatomical aging. In future, BrainAGE and other brain age prediction approaches based on structural or functional markers may improve the assessment of individual risks for neurological, neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases as well as aid in developing personalized neuroprotective treatments and interventions.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, shares many aspects of abnormal brain aging. We present a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based biomarker that predicts the individual progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD on the basis of pathological brain aging patterns. By employing kernel regression methods, the expression of normal brain-aging patterns forms the basis to estimate the brain age of a given new subject. If the estimated age is higher than the chronological age, a positive brain age gap estimation (BrainAGE) score indicates accelerated atrophy and is considered a risk factor for conversion to AD. Here, the BrainAGE framework was applied to predict the individual brain ages of 195 subjects with MCI at baseline, of which a total of 133 developed AD during 36 months of follow-up (corresponding to a pre-test probability of 68%). The ability of the BrainAGE framework to correctly identify MCI-converters was compared with the performance of commonly used cognitive scales, hippocampus volume, and state-of-the-art biomarkers derived from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). With accuracy rates of up to 81%, BrainAGE outperformed all cognitive scales and CSF biomarkers in predicting conversion of MCI to AD within 3 years of follow-up. Each additional year in the BrainAGE score was associated with a 10% greater risk of developing AD (hazard rate: 1.10 [CI: 1.07–1.13]). Furthermore, the post-test probability was increased to 90% when using baseline BrainAGE scores to predict conversion to AD. The presented framework allows an accurate prediction even with multicenter data. Its fast and fully automated nature facilitates the integration into the clinical workflow. It can be exploited as a tool for screening as well as for monitoring treatment options.

Algorithms for computer-aided diagnosis of dementia based on structural MRI have demonstrated high performance in the literature, but are difficult to compare as different data sets and methodology were used for evaluation. In addition, it is unclear how the algorithms would perform on previously unseen data, and thus, how they would perform in clinical practice when there is no real opportunity to adapt the algorithm to the data at hand. To address these comparability, generalizability and clinical applicability issues, we organized a grand challenge that aimed to objectively compare algorithms based on a clinically representative multi-center data set. Using clinical practice as the starting point, the goal was to reproduce the clinical diagnosis. Therefore, we evaluated algorithms for multi-class classification of three diagnostic groups: patients with probable Alzheimer's disease, patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy controls. The diagnosis based on clinical criteria was used as reference standard, as it was the best available reference despite its known limitations. For evaluation, a previously unseen test set was used consisting of 354 T1-weighted MRI scans with the diagnoses blinded. Fifteen research teams participated with a total of 29 algorithms. The algorithms were trained on a small training set (n=30) and optionally on data from other sources (e.g., the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, the Australian Imaging Biomarkers and Lifestyle flagship study of aging). The best performing algorithm yielded an accuracy of 63.0% and an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) of 78.8%. In general, the best performances were achieved using feature extraction based on voxel-based morphometry or a combination of features that included volume, cortical thickness, shape and intensity. The challenge is open for new submissions via the web-based framework: http://caddementia.grand-challenge.org.