Awareness of prevention is enhanced to reduce the rate of infection by media coverage, which plays an important role in preventing and controlling infectious diseases. Based on epidemic situation of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hubei, an SIHRS epidemic model with media coverage was proposed. Firstly, by the basic reproduction number R0, the globally asymptotically stable of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium were proved. Then, based on the reported epidemic data of Hubei Province from January 26 to February 13, numerical simulations are used to verify the analysis results, and the impact of peak time and the scale of disease transmission were mainly considered with different information implementation rate and the contact rate. It was shown that with the decrease of information implementation rate, the peak of confirmed cases would be delayed to reach, and would increase significantly. Therefore, in order to do a better prevention measures after resumption of work, it is very necessary to maintain the amount of information and implementation rate of media coverage.
Motivations: Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV). Approximately 390,000 people in China die from HBV-related diseases each year. Around 86 million individuals suffer from infections of the hepatitis B virus, accounting for about 6% of the total population in the region. There are approximately 30 million chronic infections. From 2002 to 2007, China’s government took part in “The Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI)” initiative, which helped reduce cases of chronic HBV infections among children. However, incidences of hepatitis B remain persistently high in China. Accurately estimating the number of potential HBV infections is crucial for preventing and controlling the transmission of the hepatitis B virus. Up until now, there were no studies of potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. Methods: this study was based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China from 2003 to 2021; a dynamic model was built, which included a compartment for potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections. The parameters in the model were fitted using a combination of nonlinear least-squares and genetic algorithm methods. Results: the calculated reproduction number for hepatitis B virus transmission within the population is = 1.741. Considering the existing vaccine inefficiency rate of 0.1, the model estimates there are 449,535 (95%CI [415,651, 483,420]) potentially infectious hepatitis B virus infections, constituting 30.49% of total hepatitis B cases. Date fitting using MATLAB reveals that increasing the rate of hepatitis B vaccinations can effectively reduce the number of infections. Conclusions: the results reveal that the number of potential infectious hepatitis B virus infections is so high that the number of hepatitis B patients persistently rises in China. To better control the transmission of the hepatitis B virus, an optional prevention and control strategy is needed to increase the vaccination of different age groups, and it is necessary to help the public correctly understand the transmission of hepatitis B and ensure adequate protection.
An epidemic model with time delay has been proposed and analyzed. In this model the effect of awareness programs driven by media on the prevalence of an infectious disease is studied. It is assumed that pathogens are transmitted via direct contact between the susceptible and the infective populations and further assumed that the growth rate of cumulative density of awareness programs increases at a rate proportional to the infective population. The model is analyzed by using stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulations. Both equilibria have been proved to be globally asymptotically stable. The results we obtained and numerical simulations suggest the increasing of the dissemination rate and implementation rate can reduce the proportion of the infective population.
1 January 2019 in Applied Mathematics and Computation