The Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), located in the northeastern part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, has a fragile ecological environment and is sensitive to global climate change. With the progress of societal and economic development, the tourism industry in the QLB has also developed rapidly, which is bound to result in great changes in landscape patterns. In this study, we first analyzed the change characteristics of landscape patterns in the QLB from 1990 to 2018, and we then used the Markov model and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model, combined with natural, social, and ecological factors, to predict the changes in the number and spatial distribution of landscape patterns in the period between 2026 and 2034. The results of the study show that desert areas have been greatly reduced and transformed into grasslands. The grassland area expanded from 49.22% in 1990 to 59.45% in 2018, corresponding to an increase of 10.23%. The direct cause of this result is the combined effects of natural and man-made factors, with the latter playing a leading role. As such, government decision-making is crucial. Lastly, we simulated the landscape patterns in the period from 2018 to 2034. The results show that in the next 16 years, the proportion of various landscapes will change little, and the spatial distribution will be stable. This research provides a reference for the formulation of ecological environment management and protection policies in the QLB.

As a vital ecological security barrier and climate regulator in northwestern China, the spatial patterns and evolving formation mechanisms of ecosystem services within the Qinghai Lake basin hold significant strategic value for ecological conservation and national park development in the region. This study selected land use data during 2000–2020, integrating the equivalent factor method, spatial correlation analysis, and the geodetector approach to systematically investigate the spatial heterogeneity characteristics of ESV in the Qinghai Lake basin and its corresponding driving mechanisms. The results indicate the following: (1) During the period 2000–2020, grassland consistently constituted the primary land cover category within the Qinghai Lake Basin, accounting for over 60% of the total area; water bodies (16.67%) and unused land (16.56%) represented the secondary land use categories. Over this twenty-year period, the total ESV exhibited a slight increasing trend, rising from USD 30.30 × 10⁸ to USD 30.75 × 10⁸, representing a growth of 0.31%. Regulating services constituted the primary component of ESV. The highest contribution to ESV originated from water bodies, with grassland ranking second. (2) ESV displayed a spatial arrangement marked by “high values in the lake center and low values in the surrounding areas” and “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.” Its spatial correlation exhibits a pronounced positive relationship. The number of units classified as high-high clusters (primarily water bodies at low elevations) and low-low clusters (mainly grasslands and unused land at high elevations) both increased over the study period, indicating a continuous intensification of ESV spatial agglomeration. (3) Results from the geographical detector reveal that both natural and anthropogenic factors collectively drive the spatial variation in ESV, with natural factors exhibiting stronger explanatory capacity. Among these, elevation and temperature are identified as the dominant drivers of ESV spatiotemporal differentiation. The combined effect of two interacting factors surpasses the influence exerted by any single factor in isolation. This research clarifies that the spatial distribution of ESV in the Qinghai Lake Basin, which features “high values in the lake center and low values in the surrounding areas” as well as “higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest,” is jointly shaped by the combined control of vertical zonality governed by topographic and climatic factors and the spatial differentiation of human activities. In low-altitude lakeshore zones, ESV rose as a consequence of water body expansion and the enforcement of ecological conservation measures, leading to the emergence of high-value clusters. In contrast, ESV improvement in high-elevation regions remained limited, constrained by fragile natural conditions and minimal human intervention. The insights derived from this research offer a scientific foundation for refining the “one core, four zones, one ring, multiple points” functional zoning framework of the Qinghai Lake National Park, as well as for developing tailored management approaches suited to distinct elevation-based regions.

The Qinghai Lake Basin represents a critical ecological security barrier in the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Water yield and carbon storage within this basin are closely linked to regional ecological security and sustainable development. To investigate their spatiotemporal patterns, influencing factors, and spatial interrelationships from 1995 to 2020, this study integrated the InVEST model, the Optimal Parameter Geodetector model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The results indicate that water yield exhibited a fluctuating yet generally increasing trend over the study period, rising from 1.42 × 10⁹ m³ to 1.97 × 10⁹ m³. High water yield values were predominantly concentrated in high-altitude headwater areas, whereas low values mainly occurred in the lake area and its surroundings. Elevation, annual mean temperature, and precipitation were identified as the primary drivers of water yield. Carbon storage increased from 1.76 × 10⁸ t in 1995 to 2.14 × 10⁸ t in 2020. High carbon storage values were mainly concentrated in grassland and forested areas, while low values were largely distributed in built-up land, unused land, and the lake area. Elevation, NDVI, and water yield emerged as the main influencing factors of carbon storage. A significant positive spatial correlation was observed between water yield and carbon storage. Persistent patterns of high-carbon-storage–high-water-yield clusters and low-carbon-storage–low-water-yield clusters demonstrate a clear spatial synergy. These findings provide scientific support for ecological conservation, water resource management, and carbon sink enhancement in the Qinghai Lake Basin and are of practical significance for sustaining regional ecosystem services and safeguarding sustainability.

The Qinghai Lake Basin, a typical ecologically vulnerable, high-altitude, cold region, requires coordinated ecosystem conservation and socio-economic development to achieve territorial sustainability. Based on the Production–Living–Ecological Space (PLES) framework, this study used land use data from five periods between 2000 and 2020 and integrated the PLUS and InVEST models to examine and simulate the evolution of PLES patterns and carbon stock under four scenarios—natural development, ecological protection, economic development, and sustainable development—in 2035. The results show that the PLES pattern in the Qinghai Lake Basin remained generally stable from 2000 to 2020, with ecological space dominating the landscape, while production and living spaces expanded slowly. Carbon stock increased from 214.73 × 10⁶ Mg to 264.70 × 10⁶ Mg, representing a growth rate of 23.27%. Its spatial distribution is highly consistent with the PLES pattern, with ecological space being the main contributor. By 2035, carbon stock is projected to slightly increase under the natural development scenario; under the ecological protection scenario, the expansion of ecological space leads to an increase in carbon stock; it decreases under the economic development scenario due to the encroachment of ecological space by construction land expansion; and under the sustainable development scenario, which balances economic development and ecological protection, carbon stock increases by 4.87 × 10⁶ Mg, achieving the best overall performance. Therefore, it is essential to properly coordinate the relationships among PLES components to achieve synergistic enhancement of ecosystem services and regional sustainable development. The findings provide methodological references and decision support for sustainable development in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and other ecologically vulnerable regions.

As a vital ecological security barrier and climate regulator in northwestern China, the Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB) holds significant strategic value for regional ecological conservation and national park development. This study, utilizing land use data from 2010 to 2023 and integrating the InVEST and GeoDetector models, systematically investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil conservation (SC) and its underlying driving mechanisms. The results indicate the following: (1) During the study period, SC services exhibited a gradual declining trend across the selected years, with total SC decreasing from 14.64 × 10³ t to 7.49 × 10³ t. Spatially, high-value areas were predominantly concentrated in the high-altitude forest–grassland ecotones along the basin margins, whereas low-value areas were mainly distributed in the low-altitude zones surrounding the lake and in the northwestern corner of the basin. (2) Among different land use types, forestland, bare land, and grassland constituted the dominant contributing categories, with bare land exhibiting the highest sediment export (SE) intensity (ranging from 8.93 to 19.13 t·hm⁻²·a⁻¹), thereby serving as the primary erosion source area. Along the elevational gradient, the mid-to-high elevation zones (3500–4500 m) contributed the most to total SC, with SC intensity increasing progressively with rising elevation. With respect to slope classes, total SC was predominantly concentrated in the gentle-to-moderate slope zones (5–25°), whereas SC intensity exhibited a non-linear increase with increasing slope steepness. (3) Slope was identified as the single factor with the strongest explanatory power regarding the spatial heterogeneity of SC, and the coupled interactions of “topography–soil–vegetation” exerted a synergistic regulatory effect on SC function. It is recommended that priority attention be given to the mid-to-high elevation contribution zones (3500–4500 m), the total SC contribution zones on gentle-to-moderate slopes (5–25°), and the extremely steep slope areas (>35°) with high erosion risk, so as to implement differentiated soil and water conservation measures. These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological protection, soil and water conservation strategy formulation, and sustainable development in the QLB.