Objective To assess if optical coherence tomography (OCT) and OCT angiography (OCTA) measures are associated with the development and worsening of diabetic retinopathy (DR) over four years. Methods 280 participants with type 2 diabetes underwent ultra-wide field fundus photography, OCT and OCTA. OCT-derived macular thickness measures, retinal nerve fibre layer and ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer thickness and OCTA-derived foveal avascular zone area, perimeter, circularity, vessel density (VD) and macular perfusion (MP) were examined in relation to the development and worsening of DR over four years. Results After four years, 206 eyes of 219 participants were eligible for analysis. 27 of the 161 eyes (16.7%) with no DR at baseline developed new DR, which was associated with a higher baseline HbA_1c and longer diabetes duration. Of the 45 eyes with non-proliferative DR (NPDR) at baseline, 17 (37.7%) showed DR progression. Baseline VD (12.90 vs. 14.90 mm/mm², p = 0.032) and MP (31.79% vs. 36.96%, p = 0.043) were significantly lower in progressors compared to non-progressors. Progression of DR was inversely related to VD ((hazard ratio [HR] = 0.825) and to MP (HR = 0.936). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for VD was AUC = 0.643, with 77.4% sensitivity and 41.8% specificity for a cut-off of 15.85 mm/mm² and for MP it was AUC = 0.635, with 77.4% sensitivity and 25.5% specificity for a cut-off of 40.8%. Conclusions OCTA metrics have utility in predicting progression rather than the development of DR in individuals with type 2 diabetes.

To examine the retinal structure and function in relation to diabetes duration and glycemia in patients without diabetic retinopathy (DR). 85 adults with type 2 diabetes without DR or macular edema underwent dilated indirect ophthalmoscopy, optical coherence tomography (OCT), ultra-wide field fundus photography, multifocal electroretinography (mfERG) and HbA_1C assessment. Patients were stratified as those with diabetes duration < 10 years and ≥ 10 years. Right eyes of all participants were analyzed. mfERG was analysed as ring 12, 34, 56. No significant differences were noted in OCT-derived retinal thickness measures between groups. mfERG P1 latencies were delayed, and amplitudes (nV/deg²) were reduced in all three rings in those with diabetes duration ≥ 10 years vs. < 10 years, with significant correlations to diabetes duration in all rings. Logistic regression showed that duration of diabetes ≥ 10 years was associated with greater age (odds ratio (OR) 1.081, 95% CI 1.022, 1.143) and lower P1 amplitudes in the middle ring (OR 0.924, 95% CI 0.854, 0.999). No significant correlations were observed between HbA_1c and retinal measures. In the absence of DR, early retinal functional alterations are detectable on mfERG in patients with longer diabetes duration, but with no difference in OCT-derived retinal thickness.