In recent years, frequent natural disasters have brought huge losses to human lives and property, directly affecting social stability and economic development. Since the driving factor of disaster management operations is speed, it will face severe challenges and tremendous pressure when matching the supply of emergency resources with the demand. However, it is difficult to figure out the demands of the affected area until the initial post-disaster assessment is completed and demand is constantly changing. The focus of this paper is to stratify the evacuation needs and predict the number of evacuees and supplies demanded after an earthquake. This research takes a large-scale earthquake as an example to analyze the characteristics of evacuation demand stratification and the factors that affect the demands of evacuees. The forecast model for the number of evacuees is selected and improved. Moreover, combining the influencing factors of materials demand and the number of evacuees, a forecast model of materials demand for evacuees is constructed. The proposed model is used in the case of the Ya’an earthquake in China to estimate the number of evacuees and the daily need for emergency supplies.

Natural disasters cause serious damage to buildings and infrastructure, and victims lose a comfortable living environment. A large number of people are left homeless. Emergency shelter is an important component that cannot be ignored in the comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation plan. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study has collectively taken into account the rapid and accurate resettlement of evacuees by taking stratification of demand, distribution of supplies, and diversion evacuation as an organic model. Given the bottleneck of rapid and accurate resettlement in the complex sheltered environment, we combine field research, literature analysis, and previous case study. This paper explains that the three main factors that affect the resettlement of evacuees are the complexity of demand, the shortage of materials, and the blindness of refuge. Additionally, then an effective analysis framework of the hierarchy of demand, distribution rapidity and refuge accuracy are constructed. Finally, this paper puts forward the structural framework of demand for layered, comprehensive distribution and diversion of evacuees and further explains the structure relationship, mode of rescue and operation strategy of effective resettlement of evacuees.