This work brings a refined estimation of the land use change and derived CO₂ emissions associated with sugarcane cultivation, including changes in management practices and refined land-use carbon stocks, over the last two decades for Brazil’s center–south and north regions. The analysis was carried out at the rural property level, considering spatially explicit land conversion data. With the refinements, we found a net carbon removal of 9.8 TgCO₂∙yr⁻¹ in sugarcane cultivation areas in the 2000–2020 period, which was due to the expansion of sugarcane over poor quality pastures (55% of the gross removals), croplands (15%) and mosaic (14%) areas, and the transition from the conventional burned harvesting to unburned (16%). Moreover, 98.4% of expansion was over existent agricultural areas. Considering all the land use changes within sugarcane-producing rural properties, the net removal is even larger, of 17 TgCO₂∙yr⁻¹, which is due to vegetation recovery. This suggests that public policies and private control mechanisms might have been effective not only to control deforestation but also to induce carbon removals associated with sugarcane cultivation. These results indicate sugarcane production system and derived products as contributors to net carbon removals in the land sector in Brazil and should be considered for both bioenergy and agricultural sustainability evaluation.

For international civil aviation to be able to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) needs to be made feasible. This paper presents the results of an assessment of the feasibility of production of SAF in Brazil, considering three certified routes, based on the dedicated production of eucalyptus, soy, sugarcane and corn. The results presented here refer to the production of biomass in selected locations, aiming to reduce GHG emissions and minimise production costs. Considering that the opportunity costs of feedstocks were not observed, the minimum selling price (MSP) of SAF in the reference case was estimated at 13.4 EUR·GJ⁻¹ for the production based on soybean oil (HEFA-SPK route), 21.0 EUR·GJ⁻¹ for the production based on ethanol from sugarcane and corn (ATJ-SPK) and 32.0 EUR·GJ⁻¹ from eucalyptus (FT-SPK). These values refer to SAF’s nth industrial plant and biomass costs that are compatible with the current agricultural yields in Brazil but which are also the highest. The MSP results are relatively low compared to the estimates available in the literature, but they do not show the strict economic viability of SAFs in the short- to medium-term, mainly because of the low prices of fossil fuels.

International civil aviation strives to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is an alternative for such purpose. However, for an alternative fuel to be considered SAF, some conditions must be met, and production must be certified for sustainability. This paper presents an assessment of the necessary conditions for the sustainable production of these biofuels in Brazil. It is based on a geospatial publicly available database (SAFmaps) that was built with the aim of providing information to stakeholders who would be interested in the production of SAF. The geographic scope corresponds to an area that is about half of the country. The case studies reported in this paper are related to four crop-based feedstocks (eucalyptus, soybean, sugarcane, and corn), which could be used for SAF production, according to three certified routes (FT, HEFA, and ATJ) (Fischer–Tropsch, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids and Alcohol to Jet); in total, six potential production sites were assessed. For each crop, the detailed assessment is based on estimates of suitability for biomass production, yields, and costs. The assumptions made allowed us to explicitly analyse the risk of deforestation (production could only occur with displacement of pastures) and the necessary preservation of sensitive biomes and of legally protected areas, in addition to observing the restrictive conditions imposed by CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). To reduce GHG emissions, transporting biomass over long distances was assumed to be only by rail or pipeline. In addition, we address alternatives to minimise the risks associated with induced land-use change (iLUC) and to reduce impacts on the landscape. The results show that the production of SAF through the ATJ route, using ethanol produced from sugarcane and corn, requires less land. Economic assessment was outside the scope of this paper.

Recently, soybean production almost doubled in Brazil, reaching 122 million tonnes, and it is expected to increase even more. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and is primarily an exporter. From a sustainability point of view, soy production has been strongly criticized mainly in relation to deforestation, albeit for indirect effects. Soybean oil is a potential feedstock for the production of bio-jet fuels, which needs to be sustainable according to international criteria (sustainable aviation fuels—SAF). This paper aims to estimate the areas still available for soy expansion in Brazil, considering conditions that would allow the production of SAF. We used the SAFmaps platform, a geospatial database with information on the most promising bioenergy crops for SAF and their supply chains. Just by displacing pastures and observing a set of constraints, the total area available for expansion was estimated at 192.8 thousand km², of which 43% is of high suitability. These areas are concentrated in the Center-West region. Assuming a vertical supply chain, the results of the case studies of SAF production indicate potential feasibility, but some hypotheses considered are optimistic. Moreover, the results indicate that there can be sustainable production of soybean oil and contribution to the production of SAF.