Most of the buildings damaged by the mainshock of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake were concentrated in downtown Mashiki in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan. We obtained 1D subsurface velocity structures at 535 grid points covering this area based on 57 identified velocity models, used the linear and equivalent linear analyses to obtain site-specific ground motions, and generated detailed distribution maps of the peak ground acceleration and velocity in Mashiki. We determined the construction period of every individual building in the target area corresponding to updates to the Japanese building codes. Finally, we estimated the damage probability by the nonlinear response model of wooden structures with different ages. The distribution map of the estimated damage probabilities was similar to the map of the damage ratios from a field survey, and moderate damage was estimated in the northwest where no damage survey was conducted. We found that both the detailed site amplification and the construction period of wooden houses are important factors for evaluating the seismic risk of wooden structures.

We used the Green’s function summation method together with the randomly perturbed asperity sources to sum up broadband statistical Green’s functions of a moderate-size source and predict strong ground motions due to the expected M8.1 to 8.7 Nankai-Trough earthquakes along the southern coast of western Japan. We successfully simulated seismic intensity distributions similar to the past earthquakes and strong ground motions similar to the empirical attenuation relations of peak ground acceleration and velocity. Using these results, we predicted building damage by non-linear response analyses and find that at the regions close to the source, as well as regions with relatively thick, soft sediments such as the shoreline and alluvium valleys along the rivers, there is a possibility of severe damage regardless of the types of buildings. Moreover, the predicted damage ratios for buildings built before 1981 are much higher than those built after because of the significant code modifications in 1981. We also find that the damage ratio is highest for steel buildings, followed by wooden houses, and then reinforced concrete buildings.