Among women, lung cancer mortality rates have surpassed those for breast cancer in several countries. This reflects the breast cancer mortality declines due to access to screening and effective treatment alongside the entrance of certain countries in stages of the tobacco epidemic in which smoking becomes more prevalent in women. In this study, we project lung and breast cancer mortality until 2030 in 52 countries. Cancer mortality data were obtained from the WHO Mortality Database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), per 100,000, were calculated (direct method) for 2008 to 2014 and projected for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model. In 52 countries studied around the world, between 2015 and 2030, the median ASMR are projected to increase for lung cancer, from 11.2 to 16.0, whereas declines are expected for breast cancer, from 16.1 to 14.7. In the same period, the ASMR will decrease in 36 countries for breast cancer and in 15 countries for lung cancer. In half of the countries analyzed, and in nearly three quarters of those classified as high-income countries, the ASMR for lung cancer has already surpassed or will surpass the breast cancer ASMR before 2030. The mortality for lung and breast cancer is higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries; lung cancer mortality is lower in the latter because the tobacco epidemic is not yet widespread. Due to these observed characteristics of lung cancer, primary prevention should still be a key factor to decrease lung cancer mortality. Significance: The mortality for lung and breast cancer is projected to be higher in high-income countries than in middle-income countries, where lung cancer mortality is expected to surpass breast cancer mortality before 2030. Cancer Res; 78(15); 4436–42. ©2018 AACR.

Breast cancer (BC) is the most frequent cancer in women, accounting for 28% of all tumors among women in Catalonia (Spain). Mastectomy has been replaced over time by breast-conserving surgery (BCS) although not as rapidly as might be expected. The aim of this study was to assess the evolution of surgical procedures in incident BC cases in Catalonia between 2005 and 2011, and to analyze variations based on patient and hospital characteristics. We processed data from the Catalonian Health Service’s Acute Hospital Discharge database (HDD) using ASEDAT software (Analysis, Selection and Extraction of Tumor Data) to identify all invasive BC incident cases according to the codes 174.0-174.9 of the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) that were attended for the one-year periods in 2005, 2008 and 2011. Patients were classified according to surgical procedures (BCS vs mastectomy, and immediate vs delayed reconstruction), and results were compared among periods according to age, stage, comorbidity and hospital level. BC surgical procedures were performed in more than 80% of patients. Surgical cases showed a significant increasing trend in the proportion of women aged 50–69 years, more advanced disease stages, higher comorbidity and they were attended in hospitals of less complexity level throughout the study period. Similar pattern was found for patients treated with BCS, which increased significantly from 67.9% in 2005 to 74.0% in 2011. Simple lymph node removal increased significantly (from 48.8% to 71.4% and from 63.6% to 67.8% for 2005 and 2011 in conservative and radical surgery, respectively). A slightly increase in the proportion of mastectomized young women (from 28% in 2005 to 34% in 2011) was detected, due to multiple factors. About 22% of women underwent post-mastectomy breast reconstruction, this being mostly immediate. The use of HDD linked to the ASEDAT allowed us to evaluate BC surgical treatment in Catalonia. A consolidating increasing trend of BCS was observed in women aged 50–69 years, which corresponds with the pattern in most European countries. Among the mastectomized patients, immediate breast reconstructions have risen significantly over the period 2005–2011.

Background We assessed differences in predicted breast cancer (BC) mortality rates, across Europe, by 2020, taking into account changes in the time trends of BC mortality rates during the period 2000–2010. Methods BC mortality data, for 27 European Union (EU) countries, were extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database. First, we compared BC mortality data between time periods 2000–2004 and 2006–2010 through standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and carrying out a graphical assessment of the age-specific rates. Second, making use of the base period 2006–2012, we predicted BC mortality rates by 2020. Finally, making use of the SMRs and the predicted data, we identified a clustering of countries, assessing differences in the time trends between the areas defined in this clustering. Results The clustering approach identified two clusters of countries: the first cluster were countries where BC predicted mortality rates, in 2020, might slightly increase among women aged 69 and older compared with 2010 [Greece (SMR 1.01), Croatia (SMR 1.02), Latvia (SMR 1.15), Poland (SMR 1.14), Estonia (SMR 1.16), Bulgaria (SMR 1.13), Lithuania (SMR 1.03), Romania (SMR 1.13) and Slovakia (SMR 1.06)]. The second cluster was those countries where BC mortality rates level off or decrease in all age groups (remaining countries). However, BC mortality rates between these clusters might diminish and converge to similar figures by 2020. Conclusions For the year 2020, our predictions have shown a converging pattern of BC mortality rates between European regions. Reducing disparities, in access to screening and treatment, could have a substantial effect in countries where a non-decreasing trend in age-specific BC mortality rates has been predicted.

Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice.