Directional data arise in various contexts such as oceanography (wave directions) and meteorology (wind directions), as well as with measurements on a periodic scale (weekdays, hours, etc.). Our contribution is to introduce a model-based approach to handle periodic data in the case of measurements taken at spatial locations, anticipating structured dependence between these measurements. We formulate a wrapped Gaussian spatial process model for this setting, induced from a customary linear Gaussian process. We build a hierarchical model to handle this situation and show that the fitting of such a model is possible using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our approach enables spatial interpolation (and can accommodate measurement error). We illustrate with a set of wave direction data from the Adriatic coast of Italy, generated through a complex computer model.

Quantitative or qualitative differences in immunity may drive clinical severity in COVID-19. Although longitudinal studies to record the course of immunological changes are ample, they do not necessarily predict clinical progression at the time of hospital admission. Here we show, by a machine learning approach using serum pro-inflammatory, anti-inflammatory and anti-viral cytokine and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements as input data, that COVID-19 patients cluster into three distinct immune phenotype groups. These immune-types, determined by unsupervised hierarchical clustering that is agnostic to severity, predict clinical course. The identified immune-types do not associate with disease duration at hospital admittance, but rather reflect variations in the nature and kinetics of individual patient’s immune response. Thus, our work provides an immune-type based scheme to stratify COVID-19 patients at hospital admittance into high and low risk clinical categories with distinct cytokine and antibody profiles that may guide personalized therapy.

We propose a 3-step methodological approach to identify and classify fish nurseries for fisheries management purposes. We applied our approach to juvenile European hake Merluccius merluccius in the central Mediterranean Sea. Time series of trawl-survey fish-density data were used to map juvenile hake distribution with Bayesian kriging, while geostatistical aggregation curves were used to find density hot-spots. Persistence measures were adopted to identify nurseries on the basis of their spatio-temporal persistence. We found that areas with a high density of juvenile hake showed a high temporal persistence on both a seasonal and annual basis, with the most persistent nursery areas covering about 5% of the study areas while including about 39% of hake recruitment (averaged over 10 yr). We believe the persistence of these areas is indirect evidence of their importance to the productivity of the population, with many potentially important implications for fisheries management. The approach that we developed to identify hake nurseries can be applied to different species and life stages to improve knowledge of the role of habitat for populations and communities

Seagrasses rank among the most productive yet highly threatened ecosystems on Earth. Loss of seagrass habitat because of anthropogenic disturbances and evidence of their limited resilience have provided the impetus for investigating and monitoring habitat restoration through transplantation programmes. Although Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry is becoming a more and more relevant technique for mapping underwater environments, no standardised methods currently exist to provide 3-dimensional high spatial resolution and accuracy cartographic products for monitoring seagrass transplantation areas. By synthesizing various remote sensing applications, we provide an underwater SfM-based protocol for monitoring large seagrass restoration areas. The data obtained from consumer-grade red-green-blue (RGB) imagery allowed the fine characterization of the seabed by using 3D dense point clouds and raster layers, including orthophoto mosaics and Digital Surface Models (DSM). The integration of high spatial resolution underwater imagery with object-based image classification (OBIA) technique provided a new tool to count transplanted Posidonia oceanica fragments and estimate the bottom coverage expressed as a percentage of seabed covered by such fragments. Finally, the resulting digital maps were integrated into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to run topographic change detection analysis and evaluate the mean height of transplanted fragments and detect fine-scale changes in seabed vector ruggedness measure (VRM). Our study provides a guide for creating large-scale, replicable and ready-to-use products for a broad range of applications aimed at standardizing monitoring protocols in future seagrass restoration actions.