Objectives Multimorbidity—the co-occurrence of at least two chronic diseases in an individual—is an important public health challenge in ageing societies. The vast majority of multimorbidity research takes a cross-sectional approach, but longitudinal approaches to understanding multimorbidity are an emerging research area, being encouraged by multiple funders. To support development in this research area, the aim of this study is to scope the methodological approaches and substantive findings of studies that have investigated longitudinal multimorbidity trajectories. Design We conducted a systematic search for relevant studies in four online databases (Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and Embase) in May 2020 using predefined search terms and inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search was complemented by searching reference lists of relevant papers. From the selected studies, we systematically extracted data on study methodology and findings and summarised them in a narrative synthesis. Results We identified 35 studies investigating multimorbidity longitudinally, all published in the last decade, and predominantly in high-income countries from the Global North. Longitudinal approaches employed included constructing change variables, multilevel regression analysis (eg, growth curve modelling), longitudinal group-based methodologies (eg, latent class modelling), analysing disease transitions and visualisation techniques. Commonly identified risk factors for multimorbidity onset and progression were older age, higher socioeconomic and area-level deprivation, overweight and poorer health behaviours. Conclusion The nascent research area employs a diverse range of longitudinal approaches that characterise accumulation and disease combinations and to a lesser extent disease sequencing and progression. Gaps include understanding the long-term, life course determinants of different multimorbidity trajectories, and doing so across diverse populations, including those from low-income and middle-income countries. This can provide a detailed picture of morbidity development, with important implications from a clinical and intervention perspective.

The effects of COVID-19 are likely to be socially stratified. Disease control measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic mean that people spend much more time in their immediate households, due to lockdowns, the need to self-isolate, and school and workplace closures. This has elevated the importance of certain household–level characteristics for individuals’ current and future wellbeing. The multi-dimensional poverty and health inequalities literature suggests that poor health and socio-economic conditions cluster in the general population, which may exacerbate societal inequalities over time. This study investigates how COVID-19-related health- and socio-economic vulnerabilities co-occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of UK households and individuals and applying principal components analysis, we derived summary measures representing different dimensions of household vulnerabilities critical during the COVID-19 epidemic: health, employment, housing, financial and digital. Our analysis highlights four key findings. First, although COVID-19-related health risks are concentrated in retirement-age households, a substantial proportion of working-age households also face these risks. Second, different types of households exhibit different vulnerabilities, with working-age households more likely to face financial and housing precarities, and retirement-age households health and digital vulnerabilities. Third, there are area-level differences in the distribution of household-level vulnerabilities across England and the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Fourth, in many households, different dimensions of vulnerabilities intersect; this is especially prevalent among working-age households. The findings imply that the short- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to significantly vary by household type. Policy measures that aim to mitigate the health and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic should consider how vulnerabilities cluster and interact with one another both within individuals and different household types, and how these may exacerbate already existing inequalities.

A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932-1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association.

Poverty is a proposed driver of antimicrobial resistance, influencing inappropriate antibiotic use in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, at subnational levels, studies investigating multidimensional poverty and antibiotic misuse are sparse, and the results are inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the relationship between multidimensional poverty and antibiotic use in patient populations in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. In this mixed-methods study, the Holistic Approach to Unravelling Antimicrobial Resistance (HATUA) Consortium collected data from 6827 outpatients (aged 18 years and older, or aged 14-18 years and pregnant) with urinary tract infection (UTI) symptoms in health-care facilities in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. We used Bayesian hierarchical modelling to investigate the association between multidimensional poverty and self-reported antibiotic self-medication and non-adherence (ie, skipping a dose and not completing the course). We analysed linked qualitative in-depth patient interviews and unlinked focus-group discussions with community members. Between Feb 10, 2019, and Sept 10, 2020, we collected data on 6827 outpatients, of whom 6345 patients had complete data; most individuals were female (5034 [79·2%]), younger than 35 years (3840 [60·5%]), worked in informal employment (2621 [41·3%]), and had primary-level education (2488 [39·2%]). Antibiotic misuse was more common among those least deprived, and lowest among those living in severe multidimensional poverty. Regardless of poverty status, difficulties in affording health care, and more familiarity with antibiotics, were related to more antibiotic misuse. Qualitative data from linked qualitative in-depth patient interviews (n=82) and unlinked focus-group discussions with community members (n=44 groups) suggested that self-medication and treatment non-adherence were driven by perceived inconvenience of the health-care system, financial barriers, and ease of unregulated antibiotic access. We should not assume that higher deprivation drives antibiotic misuse. Structural barriers such as inefficiencies in public health care, combined with time and financial constraints, fuel alternative antibiotic access points and treatment non-adherence across all levels of deprivation. In designing interventions to reduce antibiotic misuse and address antimicrobial resistance, greater attention is required to these structural barriers that discourage optimal antibiotic use at all levels of the socioeconomic hierarchy in LMICs. UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and the Department of Health and Social Care.

Worldwide, antimicrobial resistance is increasing rapidly and is associated with misuse of antimicrobials. The HATUA study (a broader 3-country study) investigated the antibiotic dispensing practices of pharmaceutical providers to clients, particularly the propensity to dispense without prescription. A cross-sectional study using a ‘mystery client’ method was conducted in 1148 community pharmacies and accredited drugs dispensing outlets (ADDO) in Mwanza (n = 612), Mbeya (n = 304) and Kilimanjaro (n = 232) in Tanzania. Mystery clients asked directly for amoxicillin, had no prescription to present, did not discuss symptoms unless asked [when asked reported UTI-like symptoms] and attempted to buy a half course. Dispensing of amoxicillin without prescription was common [88.2, 95%CI 86.3–89.9%], across all three regions. Furthermore, the majority of outlets sold a half course of amoxicillin without prescription: Mwanza (98%), Mbeya (99%) and Kilimanjaro (98%). Generally, most providers in all three regions dispensed amoxicillin on demand, without asking the client any questions, with significant variations among regions [p-value = 0.003]. In Mbeya and Kilimanjaro, providers in ADDOs were more likely to do this than those in pharmacies but no difference was observed in Mwanza. While the Tanzanian government has laws, regulations and guidelines that prohibit antibiotic dispensing without prescription, our study suggests non-compliance by drug providers. Enforcement, surveillance, and the provision of continuing education on dispensing practices is recommended, particularly for ADDO providers.

To investigate associations between number of children and partnership with depressive symptoms among older Europeans and assess whether associations are greater in Eastern than Western countries. We further analyze whether associations are mediated by provision and receipt of emotional and financial support. Using cross-sectional data for five Eastern (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Georgia, Romania, and Russia) and four Western European countries (Belgium, France, Norway, and Sweden) (n = 15,352), we investigated variation in depressive symptoms using linear regression. We fitted conditional change score models for depressive symptoms using longitudinal data for four countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Georgia, and France) (n = 3,978). Unpartnered women and men had more depressive symptoms than the partnered. In Eastern, but not Western, European countries childlessness and having one compared with two children were associated with more depressive symptoms. Formal tests indicated that partnership and number of children were more strongly associated with depressive symptoms in Eastern than Western Europe. Availability of close family is more strongly associated with older people’s depressive symptoms in Eastern than Western Europe. The collapse of previous state supports and greater economic stress in Eastern Europe may mean that having a partner and children has a greater psychological impact than in Western countries.