China has been reforming its domestic natural gas market in recent years, while construction of storage systems is lagging behind. As natural gas accounts for an increasing proportion due to the goal of carbon neutrality, large-scale gas storage appears to be necessary to satisfy the needs for gas peak shaving and national strategic security. Additionally, the domestic gas production in China cannot meet consumption demands, and imports will play a significant role on the supply side. This paper developed a system dynamics (SD) model and applied it to simulate gas market behaviors and estimated China’s gas storage capabilities and import demands over the next 40 years. To achieve carbon neutrality, it is necessary for China to make great progress in its energy intensity and improve its energy structure, which have a great impact on natural gas consumption. Thus, alternative scenarios were defined to discuss the changes in the gas market with different gas storage goals and environmental constraints. The results show that under low and medium carbon price scenarios, natural gas demand will continue to grow in the next 40 years, but it will be difficult to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Under the high carbon price scenario, natural gas consumption will grow rapidly and reach a peak in approximately 2040, after which renewable energy will play a more important role to help achieve carbon neutrality. At the peak time, China’s gas storage demand will be 205.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) and import demand will reach 635.4 bcm, accounting for 72.8% of total consumption. We also identified the contradiction between the estimated storage capability, import demand and infrastructure planning. There will be a gap of 28.1–69.3 bcm between the planned storage capacity and simulated demand by 2030, while import facilities may partly strand assets. Finally, we provided some policy recommendations for constructing gas storage and import management and operation systems.

Green finance has emerged as a crucial instrument for driving the macroeconomic transition toward a low-carbon economy, yet its specific transmission mechanisms warrant deeper empirical scrutiny. Leveraging China’s Green Finance Reform and Innovation Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this scientific study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) framework using provincial panel data from 2009 to 2023. To overcome the limitations of unidimensional metrics, we developed a comprehensive Industrial Structure Upgrading Index (ISUI) that integrates structural rationalization, advancement, and greening. The empirical findings reveal that the green finance pilot policy exerts a significant and positive impact on the ISUI. This core result remains robust under a series of rigorous checks, including the Callaway and Sant’Anna (CS-DID) estimator. Mechanism analyses demonstrate a dual “push–pull” dynamic: Green Credit Intensity (GCI) acts as the primary mediating channel by directing targeted financial resources (financial pull), while stringent environmental regulation positively moderates this effect (administrative push). Furthermore, the moderating role of digital finance is statistically non-significant, underscoring the policy’s broad inclusiveness and its independence from regional digital infrastructure. Heterogeneity estimations identify a clear structural catch-up effect, with more pronounced benefits observed in resource-dependent regions and areas with historically lower innovation capacities. Ultimately, these findings indicate that coordinating targeted financial incentives with environmental oversight can effectively drive multidimensional industrial upgrading, providing valuable evidence for sustainable transition strategies.

China considers the healthy and sustainable development of the natural gas market to be crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and has been actively reforming its natural gas market to optimize the energy and economic structure. While previous studies have discussed the effectiveness of policy measures, there is a lack of simulation research and quantitative analysis on the impact of reform measures in China. This study addresses this gap by constructing a numerical simulation model based on China’s long-distance pipeline network and natural gas market, calibrated to 2019 as a pre-reform baseline and extended to the partially reformed market of 2024–2025. The model includes a base scenario to replicate real market conditions and two policy scenarios that incorporate market-oriented reform measures such as deregulation of prices, pipeline separation and interconnection. The effects of these measures on gas allocation and social welfare are examined. The results indicate that (1) pipeline separation and price deregulation increase social welfare, with welfare shifting from consumers to producers and distributors; (2) natural gas consumption and price changes exhibit pronounced regional heterogeneity, even though prices rise overall, reflecting the complexity of policy effects; (3) the reform follows a path of diminishing returns, and the current stage policy already captures about half of the welfare gain and most of the price adjustment, while shielding consumers from much of the surplus loss. Finally, we conclude with policy implications for China’s natural gas market reform. As these reform measures are now being implemented, the quantified welfare and price effects also offer a timely, model-based reference for assessing China’s ongoing gas-market marketization.

Purpose: Food security, of utmost global significance, is indelibly intertwined with national stability and citizen living quality. China has been resolutely committed to augmenting food security within host countries through outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper aims to examine the impact of China’s OFDI on the food security of host countries. Design/methodology/approach: Using panel data from 46 countries spanning from 2010 to 2021, the study establishes a food security index using the entropy method, encompassing three dimensions: food supply stability, food availability and the food production foundation, followed by an empirical analysis of the effect of China’s OFDI on the index. Findings: The findings indicate that, for every one-unit increase in China’s OFDI, the food security index of the host country increases by 0.0078 units significantly. This impact is modulated by the degree of corruption prevailing in the host countries. Those countries with relatively lower levels of corruption are capable of optimizing the efficiency of foreign investment utilization, thereby magnifying the salutary impact of foreign investment on food security. Additionally, the trade scale and agricultural infrastructure of the host country are identified as the two major channels through which China’s OFDI promotes food security. Originality/value: The paper concludes with some policy recommendations aimed at enhancing food security by enhancing the host country’s food security governance capacity and strengthening China’s OFDI and foreign cooperation.