The electrification of final energy uses is a key strategy to reach the desired scenario with zero greenhouse gas emissions. Many of them can be electrified with more or less difficulty, but there is a part that is difficult to electrify at a competitive cost: heavy road transport, maritime and air transport, and some industrial processes are some examples. For this reason, the possibility of using other energy vectors rather than electricity should be explored. Hydrogen can be considered a real alternative, especially considering that this transition should not be carried out immediately because, initially, the electrification would be carried out in those energy uses that are considered most feasible for this conversion. The Canary Islands’ government is making considerable efforts to promote a carbon-free energy mix, starting with renewable energy for electricity generation. Still, in the early–mid 2030s, it will be necessary to substitute heavy transport fossil fuel. For this purpose, HOMER software was used to analyze the feasibility of hydrogen production using surplus electricity produced by the future electricity system. The results of previous research on the optimal generation MIX for Grand Canary Island, based exclusively on renewable sources, were used. This previous research considers three possible scenarios where electricity surplus is in the range of 2.3–4.9 TWh/year. Several optimized scenarios using demand-side management techniques were also studied. Therefore, based on the electricity surpluses of these scenarios, the optimization of hydrogen production and storage systems was carried out, always covering at least the final hydrogen demand of the island. As a result, it is concluded that it would be possible to produce 3.5 × 10⁴ to 7.68 × 10⁴ t of H₂/year. In these scenarios, 3.15 × 10⁵ to 6.91 × 10⁵ t of water per year would be required, and there could be a potential production of 2.8 × 10⁵ to 6.14 × 10⁵ t of O₂ per year.

The determination of the probability distribution function (PDF) of uncertain input and model parameters in engineering application codes is an issue of importance for uncertainty quantification methods. One of the approaches that can be used for the PDF determination of input and model parameters is the application of methods based on the maximum entropy principle (MEP) and the maximum relative entropy (MREP). These methods determine the PDF that maximizes the information entropy when only partial information about the parameter distribution is known, such as some moments of the distribution and its support. In addition, this paper shows the application of the MREP to update the PDF when the parameter must fulfill some technical specifications (TS) imposed by the regulations. Three computer programs have been developed: GEDIPA, which provides the parameter PDF using empirical distribution function (EDF) methods; UNTHERCO, which performs the Monte Carlo sampling on the parameter distribution; and DCP, which updates the PDF considering the TS and the MREP. Finally, the paper displays several applications and examples for the determination of the PDF applying the MEP and the MREP, and the influence of several factors on the PDF.

The change towards a clean electric generation system is essential to achieve the economy decarbonization goal. The Canary Islands Archipelago confronts social, environmental, and economic challenges to overcome the profound change from a fossil fuel-dependent economy to a fully sustainable renewable economy. This document analyzes a scenario with a totally renewable generation system and with total electrification of the economy for the Canary Islands by 2040. In addition, it also shows the significant reduction in this fully renewable system when an optimized interconnection among islands is considered. This scenario consists of a solar PV system of 11 GWp, a wind system of only 0.39 GWp, a pumped storage system of 16.64 GWh (2065 MW), and a lithium-ion battery system of 34.672 GWh (3500 MW), having a system LCOE of 10.1 cEUR/kWh. These results show the certainty of being able to use an autonomous, reliable, and fully renewable system to generate and store the energy needed to dispense with fossil fuels, thus, resulting in a system free of greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity market. In addition, the proposed system has low energy wastage (less than 20%) for a fully renewable, stand-alone, and off-grid system.

The decarbonization of the electric generation system is fundamental to reaching the desired scenario of zero greenhouse gas emissions. For this purpose, this study describes the combined utilization of renewable sources (PV and wind), which are mature and cost-effective renewable technologies. Storage technologies are also considered (pumping storage and mega-batteries) to manage the variability in the generation inherent to renewable sources. This work also analyzes the combined use of renewable energies with storage systems for a total electrification scenario of Grand Canary Island (Spain). After analyzing the natural site’s resource constraints and focusing on having a techno-economically feasible, zero-emission, and low-waste renewable generation mix, six scenarios for 2040 are considered combining demand response and business as usual. The most optimal solution is the scenario with the maximum demand response, consisting of 3700 MW of PV, around 700 MW of off-shore wind system, 607 MW of pump storage, and 2300 MW of EV batteries capacity. The initial investment would be EUR 8065 million, and the LCOE close to EUR 0.11/kWh, making the total NPC EUR 13,655 million. The payback is 12.4 years, and the internal rate of return is 6.39%.