Sepsis is a transversal pathology and one of the main causes of death at the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). It has in fact become the tenth most common cause of death in western societies. Its mortality rates can reach up to 45.7% for septic shock, its most acute manifestation. For these reasons, the prediction of the mortality caused by sepsis is an open and relevant medical research challenge. This problem requires prediction methods that are robust and accurate, but also readily interpretable. This is paramount if they are to be used in the demanding context of real-time decision making at the ICU. In this brief paper, such a method is presented. It is based on a variant of the well-known support vector machine (SVM) model and provides an automated ranking of relevance of the mortality predictors. The reported results show that it outperforms in terms of accuracy alternative techniques currently in use, while simultaneously assessing the relative impact of individual pathology indicators.

Circulatory shock is a life-threatening disease that accounts for around one-third of all admissions to intensive care units (ICU). It requires immediate treatment, which is why the development of tools for planning therapeutic interventions is required to deal with shock in the critical care environment. In this study, the ShockOmics European project original database is used to extract attributes capable of predicting mortality due to shock in the ICU. Missing data imputation techniques and machine learning models were used, followed by feature selection from different data subsets. Selected features were later used to build Bayesian Networks, revealing causal relationships between features and ICU outcome. The main result is a subset of predictive features that includes well-known indicators such as the SOFA and APACHE II scores, but also less commonly considered ones related to cardiovascular function assessed through echocardiograpy or shock treatment with pressors. Importantly, certain selected features are shown to be most predictive at certain time-steps. This means that, as shock progresses, different attributes could be prioritized. Clinical traits obtained at 24h. from ICU admission are shown to accurately predict cardiogenic and septic shock mortality, suggesting that relevant life-saving decisions could be made shortly after ICU admission.

Glioma is the most common type of tumor in humans originating in the brain. According to the World Health Organization, gliomas can be graded on a four-stage scale, ranging from the most benign to the most malignant. The grading of these tumors from image information is a far from trivial task for radiologists and one in which they could be assisted by machine-learning-based decision support. However, the machine learning analytical pipeline is also fraught with perils stemming from different sources, such as inadvertent data leakage, adequacy of 2D image sampling, or classifier assessment biases. In this paper, we analyze a glioma database sourced from multiple datasets using a simple classifier, aiming to obtain a reliable tumor grading and, on the way, we provide a few guidelines to ensure such reliability. Our results reveal that by focusing on the tumor region of interest and using data augmentation techniques we significantly enhanced the accuracy and confidence in tumor classifications. Evaluation on an independent test set resulted in an AUC-ROC of 0.932 in the discrimination of low-grade gliomas from high-grade gliomas, and an AUC-ROC of 0.893 in the classification of grades 2, 3, and 4. The study also highlights the importance of providing, beyond generic classification performance, measures of how reliable and trustworthy the model’s output is, thus assessing the model’s certainty and robustness.

Predicting whether a lung nodule will grow, remain stable or regress over time, especially early in its follow-up, would help doctors prescribe personalized treatments and better surgical planning. However, the multifactorial nature of lung tumour progression hampers the identification of growth patterns. In this work, we propose a deep hierarchical generative and probabilistic network that, given an initial image of the nodule, predicts whether it will grow, quantifies its future size and provides its expected semantic appearance at a future time. Unlike previous solutions, our approach also estimates the uncertainty in the predictions from the intrinsic noise in medical images and the inter-observer variability in the annotations. The evaluation of this method on an independent test set reported a future tumour growth size mean absolute error of 1.74 mm, a nodule segmentation Dice’s coefficient of 78% and a tumour growth accuracy of 84% on predictions made up to 24 months ahead. Due to the lack of similar methods for providing future lung tumour growth predictions, along with their associated uncertainty, we adapted equivalent deterministic and alternative generative networks (i.e., probabilistic U-Net, Bayesian test dropout and Pix2Pix). Our method outperformed all these methods, corroborating the adequacy of our approach.