With the aging of the population living with HIV, the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increasing. There is a need to further facilitate the identification of persons at elevated risk in routine practice. Prospective information was collected on 32,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance of the D:A:D models were compared with a recent CVD prediction model from the Framingham study, which was assessed recalibrated to the D:A:D dataset. A total of 1010 CVD events occurred during 186,364.5 person-years. The full D:A:D CVD prediction model included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, family history of CVD, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, CD4 lymphocyte count, cumulative exposure to protease- and nucleoside reverse transcriptase-inhibitors, and current use of abacavir. A reduced model omitted antiretroviral therapies. The D:A:D models statistically significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell’s c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p < 0.001). The D:A:D models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups. An updated, easily recalibrated, global CVD-risk equation tailored to HIV-positive persons was developed using routinely collected CVD risk parameters and incorporating markers on immune function (CD4 lymphocyte count), and exposure to antiretroviral therapies. The estimated CVD risk can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.

Improved methods for targeting HIV testing among patients most likely to be infected are required; HIDES I aimed to define the methodology of a European wide study of HIV prevalence in individuals presenting with one of eight indicator conditions/diseases (ID); sexually transmitted infection, lymphoma, cervical or anal cancer/dysplasia, herpes zoster, hepatitis B/C, mononucleosis-like illness, unexplained leukocytopenia/thrombocytopenia and seborrheic dermatitis/exanthema, and to identify those with an HIV prevalence of >0.1%, a level determined to be cost effective. A staff questionnaire was performed. From October 2009– February 2011, individuals, not known to be HIV positive, presenting with one of the ID were offered an HIV test; additional information was collected on previous HIV testing behaviour and recent medical history. A total of 3588 individuals from 16 centres were included. Sixty-six tested positive for HIV, giving an HIV prevalence of 1.8% [95% CI: 1.42–2.34]; all eight ID exceeded 0.1% prevalence. Of those testing HIV positive, 83% were male, 58% identified as MSM and 9% were injecting drug users. Twenty percent reported previously having potentially HIV-related symptoms and 52% had previously tested HIV negative (median time since last test: 1.58 years); which together with the median CD4 count at diagnosis (400 cell/uL) adds weight to this strategy being effective in diagnosing HIV at an earlier stage. A positive test was more likely for non-white individuals, MSM, injecting drug users and those testing in non-Northern regions. HIDES I describes an effective strategy to detect undiagnosed HIV infection. All eight ID fulfilled the >0.1% criterion for cost effectiveness. All individuals presenting to any health care setting with one of these ID should be strongly recommended an HIV test. A strategy is being developed in collaboration with ECDC and WHO Europe to guide the implementation of this novel public health initiative across Europe.

Chronic cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection has been associated with immunosenescence and immunoactivation in the general population. In human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)–infected people, CMV coinfection, in addition to residual HIV replication and microbial translocation, has been proposed as a key factor in sustaining immune activation, even in individuals with a controlled HIV load. Patients from the ICONA Study with at least 1 CMV immunoglobulin G (IgG) test available without active CMV disease were included in the analysis. AIDS-defining event or AIDS-related death and severe non–AIDS-defining event or non–AIDS-related death were taken as clinical progression end points. Independent predictors of CMV were identified by multivariable logistic regression. Probabilities of reaching the end points were estimated by survival analyses. A total of 6111 subjects were included, of whom 5119 (83.3%) were CMV IgG positive at baseline. Patients with CMV IgG positivity at baseline were more likely to develop a severe non–AIDS-defining event/non–AIDS-related death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.53 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.08–2.16]. In particular, CMV seropositivity was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (adjusted HR, 2.27 [95% CI, .97–5.32]). In our study population, CMV/HIV coinfection was associated with the risk of severe non–AIDS-defining events/non–AIDS-related death, especially with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, independently of other prognostic factors. This finding supports a potential independent role of CMV coinfection in vascular/degenerative organ disorders in HIV-infected subjects.

Background. Some human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) with low CD4 counts achieve viral suppression but not CD4 cell recovery. We aimed to identify (1) risk factors for failure to achieve CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of sustained viral suppression and (2) the association of the achieved CD4 count with subsequent mortality. Methods. We included treated HIV-infected adults from 2 large international HIV cohorts, who had viral suppression (≤500 HIV type 1 RNA copies/mL) for >3 years with CD4 count ≤200 cells/µL at start of the suppressed period. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for incomplete CD4 recovery (≤200 cells/µL) and Cox regression to identify associations with mortality. Results. Of 5550 eligible individuals, 835 (15%) did not reach a CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of suppression. Increasing age, lower initial CD4 count, male heterosexual and injection drug use transmission, cART initiation after 1998, and longer time from initiation of cART to start of the virally suppressed period were risk factors for not achieving a CD4 count >200 cells/µL. Individuals with CD4 ≤200 cells/µL after 3 years of viral suppression had substantially increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.86–3.61) compared with those who achieved CD4 count >200 cells/µL. The increased mortality was seen across different patient groups and for all causes of death. Conclusions. Virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals on cART who do not achieve a CD4 count >200 cells/µL have substantially increased long-term mortality.