The management and monitoring of very large portfolios of financial assets are routine for many individuals and organizations. The two most widely used models of conditional covariances and correlations in the class of multivariate GARCH models are BEKK and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC). It is well known that BEKK suffers from the archetypal ‘curse of dimensionality’, whereas DCC does not. It is argued in this paper that this is a misleading interpretation of the suitability of the two models for use in practice. The primary purpose of this paper is to analyse the similarities and dissimilarities between BEKK and DCC, both with and without targeting, on the basis of the structural derivation of the models, the availability of analytical forms for the sufficient conditions for existence of moments, sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the appropriate estimators and computational tractability for ultra large numbers of financial assets. Based on theoretical considerations, the paper sheds light on how to discriminate between BEKK and DCC in practical applications.
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
1 March 2006 in Applied Financial Economics Letters
This paper introduces the Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation (FDCC) multivariate GARCH model which generalizes the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model proposed by Engle ( 2002 Engle, RF . 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation – a simple class of multivariate GARCH models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20: 339–50. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] ). The FDCC model relax the assumption of common dynamics among all assets used in the DCC model. In fact, we cannot impose that the correlation dynamics of, say, European sectorial stock indexes are identical to the corresponding US ones. We thus extend the DCC model introducing a block-diagonal structure; in the FDCC the dynamics are constrained to be equal among groups of variables. We present an application to a sectorial asset allocation problem.
The purpose of the paper is to discuss ten things potential users should know about the limits of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) representation for estimating and forecasting time-varying conditional correlations. The reasons given for caution about the use of DCC include the following: DCC represents the dynamic conditional covariances of the standardized residuals, and hence does not yield dynamic conditional correlations; DCC is stated rather than derived; DCC has no moments; DCC does not have testable regularity conditions; DCC yields inconsistent two step estimators; DCC has no asymptotic properties; DCC is not a special case of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Correlation (GARCC), which has testable regularity conditions and standard asymptotic properties; DCC is not dynamic empirically as the effect of news is typically extremely small; DCC cannot be distinguished empirically from diagonal Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) in small systems; and DCC may be a useful filter or a diagnostic check, but it is not a model.