Physicians in the emergency department (ED) need additional tools to stratify patients with acute heart failure (AHF) according to risk. To predict mortality using data that are readily available at ED admission. Prospective cohort study. 34 Spanish EDs. The derivation cohort included 4867 consecutive ED patients admitted during 2009 to 2011. The validation cohort comprised 3229 patients admitted in 2014. 88 candidate risk factors and 30-day mortality. Thirteen independent risk factors were identified in the derivation cohort and were combined into an overall score, the MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF) score. This score predicted 30-day mortality with excellent discrimination (c-statistic, 0.836) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow P = 0.99) and provided a steep gradient in 30-day mortality across risk groups (<2% for patients in the 2 lowest risk quintiles and 45% in the highest risk decile). These characteristics were confirmed in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.828). Multiple sensitivity analyses did not find important amounts of confounding or bias. The study was confined to a single country. Participating EDs were not selected randomly. Many patients had missing data. Measurement of some risk factors was subjective. This tool has excellent discrimination and calibration and was validated in a different cohort from the one that was used to develop it. Physicians can consider using this tool to inform clinical decisions as further studies are done to determine whether the tool enhances physician decision making and improves patient outcomes. Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Health; Fundació La Marató de TV3; and Catalonia Govern.

Objective: To compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) according to clinical profiles based on congestion and perfusion determined in the emergency department (ED). Methods and results: Overall, 11 261 unselected AHF patients from 41 Spanish EDs were classified according to perfusion (normoperfusion = warm; hypoperfusion = cold) and congestion (not = dry; yes = wet). Baseline and decompensation characteristics were recorded as were the main wards to which patients were admitted. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality; secondary outcomes were need for hospitalisation during the index AHF event, in-hospital all-cause mortality, prolonged hospitalisation, 7-day post-discharge ED revisit for AHF and 30-day post-discharge rehospitalisation for AHF. A total of 8558 patients (76.0%) were warm + wet, 1929 (17.1%) cold + wet, 675 (6.0%) warm + dry, and 99 (0.9%) cold + dry; hypoperfused (cold) patients were more frequently admitted to intensive care units and geriatrics departments, and warm + wet patients were discharged home without admission. The four phenotypes differed in most of the baseline and decompensation characteristics. The 1-year mortality was 30.8%, and compared to warm + dry, the adjusted hazard ratios were significantly increased for cold + wet (1.660; 95% confidence interval 1.400–1.968) and cold + dry (1.672; 95% confidence interval 1.189–2.351). Hypoperfused (cold) phenotypes also showed higher rates of index episode hospitalisation and in-hospital mortality, while congestive (wet) phenotypes had a higher risk of prolonged hospitalisation but decreased risk of rehospitalisation. No differences were observed among phenotypes in ED revisit risk. Conclusions: Bedside clinical evaluation of congestion and perfusion of AHF patients upon ED arrival and classification according to phenotypic profiles proposed by the latest European Society of Cardiology guidelines provide useful complementary information and help to rapidly predict patient outcomes shortly after ED patient arrival.