Drought-induced risk has attracted the attention of many scholars, but the risk of combined events caused by drought and high-temperature heat waves still needs further study. Based on MODIS products and meteorological data, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of summer drought and high-temperature heat waves in the North China Plain from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), crop water stress index (CWSI) and high-temperature threshold, and their combined-events risk was evaluated. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2018, summer drought in the North China Plain became more severe. Especially in Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu Provinces, drought increased significantly. (2) From 2000 to 2018, the frequency and intensity of high-temperature heat wave events in the North China Plain gradually increased at rates of 0.28 times/10 year and 1.6 °C/10 year, respectively. (3) The slightly high risk and high risk caused by summer drought were mainly distributed in Hebei Province and Tianjin Municipality in the north, and the risk change was characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south. (4) The combined-events risk of summer drought and high-temperature heat waves did not increase significantly, with an increase rate of approximately 0.01/10 year. Among them, the increase rate of combined-events risk in Henan Province was the largest (0.14/10 year), followed by the obvious increase in northern Anhui, Jiangsu and southern Shandong, while the risk in Beijing showed a decreasing trend. The research results have scientific guiding significance for formulating disaster prevention and reduction strategies.

Interannual seasonal variability in precipitation may strongly affect the life history and growth of desert annual plants. We compared the effects of dry and wet springs and dry and wet autumns on growth and F2 seed dormancy of plants from spring (SG)- and autumn (AG)-germinated seeds of the cold desert annual Erodium oxyrhinchum. Vegetative and reproductive growth and F2 seed dormancy and germination were monitored from September 2016 to November 2020 in the sandy Gurbantunggut Desert in NW China in Central Asia. Dry autumns decreased the density of AG plants, and dry springs decreased the density of SG plants and growth of SG and AG plants. In dry springs, SG plants were more sensitive to precipitation than AG plants, while in wet springs SG and AG plants had similar responses to precipitation. During growth in both dry and wet springs, most morphological characters of SG and AG plants initially increased rapidly in size/number and then plateaued or decreased, except for SG plants in dry springs. In dry springs, most morphological characters of AG plants were larger or more numerous than those of SG plants, and they were larger/more numerous for SG plants in wet than in dry springs. The percentage biomass allocated to reproduction in SG plants was slightly higher in a wet than in a dry spring. A much higher proportion of dormant seeds was produced by AG plants in a wet spring than in a dry spring. Projected changes in precipitation due to climate change in NW China are not likely to have much of an effect on the biology of this common desert annual plant.

Future climate is projected to increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, and the resulting ecological consequences are often more serious than those of normal precipitation events. In particular, in desert ecosystems, due to the low frequency and strong fluctuation of extreme precipitation, the destructive consequences for desert plants caused by extreme precipitation have not received enough attention for some time. Based on statistics of extreme precipitation events (1965–2018) in the Gurbantunggut Desert, we investigated the effects of extreme precipitation (+0%, CK; +50%, W1; +100%, W2; +200%, W3; maintenance of field capacity, W4) on the plant life-history of the spring-germinated (SG) and autumn-germinated (AG) ephemeral plant Erodium oxyrhynchum by monitoring seedling emergence, survival, phenology, organ size, biomass accumulation, and allocation. The results showed that extreme precipitation caused about 2.5% seedling emergence of E. oxyrhynchum in autumn 2018 and 3.0% seedling emergence in early spring 2019, which means that most seeds may be stored in the soil or have died. Meanwhile, extreme precipitation significantly improved the survival, organ size, and biomass accumulation of SG and AG plants, and W3 was close to the precipitation threshold of SG (326.70 mm) and AG (560.10 mm) plants corresponding to the maximum individual biomass; thus, AG plants with a longer life cycle need more water for growth. Conversely, W4 caused AG plants to enter the leaf stage in advance and led to death in winter, which indicates that extreme precipitation may not be good for AG plants. Root and reproduction biomass allocation of SG and AG plants showed a significantly opposite trend under extreme precipitation treatments, which might be related to their different life-history strategies. Therefore, when only taking into account the changing trend of extreme precipitation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate projections data, we speculate that extreme precipitation may promote the growth of SG and AG plants from the beginning to the middle of this century, but extreme precipitation in autumn exceeding a certain threshold may adversely affect the survival of AG plants at the end of the century.

Introduction: In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts in arid and semi-arid areas have shown a substantially increasing trend, which inevitably affects plant survival and growth. However, it is unclear what survival and growth strategies plants subjected to drought pretreatment in the early life stages adopt when facing subsequent drought stress.Methods: Here, we conducted a field experiment and set up two treatments, control and drought pretreatment, to investigate the effects of drought pretreatment on the survival, phenology, morphology, biomass, and stoichiometric characteristics of the ephemeral plant Erodium oxyrhinchum in the Gurbantunggut Desert, China.Results: The results showed that the leafing, flowering, and fruiting stages under drought pretreatment occurred markedly earlier than the control treatment by 5.25 ± 1.2 d, 3.13 ± 0.84 d, and 4.75 ± 1.63 d, respectively. The life history of E. oxyrhinchum decreased 5 ± 1.38 d under drought pretreatment. Drought pretreatment accelerated seedling mortality, leading to a faster and earlier decline in survival percentage. The survival percentage of E. oxyrhinchum under drought pretreatment at the full blooming stage was approximately 18.59%, which was 5.19% higher than that of the control treatment. In addition, a positive correlation was observed between morphological traits and individual biomass, and drought pretreatment substantially increased individual biomass and reproductive output. For example, the reproductive biomass under drought pretreatment was 1.41 times than that of the control treatment during the full fruiting stage, indicating that plants subjected to drought pretreatment exhibited an overcompensation effect. Finally, from the perspective of stoichiometric characteristics, plants subjected to drought pretreatment require more phosphorus to enhance their resistance to severe drought.Conclusion: This study provides novel insights for the conservation and restoration of desert ecosystems in the context of climate change.