The Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, the subtropical western boundary currents of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, play important roles in meridional heat transport and ocean–atmosphere interaction processes. Using a multimodel ensemble of future projections, we show that a warmer climate intensifies the upper-layer Kuroshio, in contrast to the previously documented slowdown of the Gulf Stream. Our ocean general circulation model experiments show that the sea surface warming, not the wind change, is the dominant forcing that causes the upper-layer Kuroshio to intensify in a warming climate. Forced by the sea surface warming, ocean subduction and advection processes result in a stronger warming to the east of the Kuroshio than to the west, which increases the isopycnal slope across the Kuroshio, and hence intensifies the Kuroshio. In the North Atlantic, the Gulf Stream slows down as part of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) response to surface salinity decrease in the high latitudes under global warming. The distinct responses of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio to climate warming are accompanied by different regional patterns of sea level rise. While the sea level rise accelerates along the northeastern U.S. coast as the AMOC weakens, it remains close to the global mean rate along the East Asian coast as the intensifying Kuroshio is associated with the enhanced sea level rise offshore in the North Pacific subtropical gyre.
Submesoscale eddies are often seen in high‐resolution satellite‐derived ocean color images. To efficiently identify these eddies from surface chlorophyll data, here, we develop an automatic submesoscale eddy detection method and apply it to the South China Sea. The detected submesoscale eddies are found to have a radius of 13 ± 5 km and an aspect ratio of 0.5 ± 0.2, with a notable predominance of cyclones. Further investigation reveals that the surface structure of these eddies displays a unique “cat's‐eye” pattern, and the eddies become more circular with increasing eddy radius. Submesoscale eddies can strongly regulate surface chlorophyll via horizontal advection while they have less coherent signatures in sea surface temperature. These findings may help to improve submesoscale parameterizations in Earth system models.
Climate models show that the largest uncertainties in the 21st century dynamic sea level (DSL) projections are in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and Southern Oceans. We conduct an intermodel singular value decomposition analysis and find that the DSL uncertainties in these two oceans are both intrinsically connected to the uncertainty in the change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We further conduct a freshwater hosing experiment to show that the AMOC decline not only accounts for the dipole pattern in the DSL change in the North Atlantic but also remotely induces a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies that helps build a belted pattern of DSL change in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that reducing the intermodel spread in the change of the AMOC can greatly improve the consistency of DSL projection among models not only in individual basins but over the global ocean.
It has been suggested that the intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical oceans can be amplified by the diurnal cycle of SST (dSST). Here, by analyzing the global tropical moored buoy array for the first time, we find that the intraseasonal SST variability is indeed amplified by the dSST in most of the tropical oceans, especially in the Indo‐Pacific warm pool, but weakened in the equatorial cold tongues of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Such a divergent response is associated with the difference in atmosphere‐ocean interaction processes over these two regions. In the warm pool region, SST responds to the intraseasonal atmospheric variability, resulting in in‐phase intraseasonal fluctuations between SST and dSST that amplify the intraseasonal SST variability. However, in the cold tongue region, SST drives the atmospheric changes, which leads to out‐of‐phase intraseasonal fluctuations between SST and dSST and thus the inhibition of the intraseasonal SST variability.
19 August 2018 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Based on the SeaFlux data set, an empirical parameterization, and a one‐dimensional ocean mixed‐layer model, the annual and semiannual cycles of diurnal warming of sea surface temperature (dSST) in the South China Sea (SCS) are examined. The amplitude of the annual cycle is greater than 0.1 °C, and the annual cycle reaches its maxima in April/May/June in most areas of the SCS, while the amplitude of the semiannual cycle of dSST increases from north to south with the month of its maxima changing from February to March along a northwest‐southeast axis. Relative to the amplitude of the annual cycle of dSST, the semiannual cycle is of much smaller amplitude north of 17°N, but of comparable or larger amplitude south of 17°N. The annual (semiannual) cycle of wind speed is the most important factor for the annual (semiannual) cycle of dSST. The annual (semiannual) cycle of wind speed drives the annual (semiannual) cycle of dSST primarily by influencing oceanic vertical turbulent mixing. Aside from these basin‐scale features, the dSST annual and semiannual cycles demonstrate robust mesoscale features in the lees of hills/islands as a result of sheltering from the monsoon.
We analyze the projected sea level rise (SLR) for the 21st century for the China Seas (the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 dataset. We find that the projected SLR over the shallow continental shelves of the China Seas is nearly the same as the global mean sea level change in all future emission scenarios, with a magnitude of 43.6 cm (20.8–67.7 cm, 90% confidence interval) in RCP2.6 and 74.5 cm (41.7–112.8 cm, 90% confidence interval) in RCP8.5 by the year 2100 relative to 1986–2005. We further analyze the causes of SLR and find that more than 90% of the total projected SLR over the continental shelves of the China Seas will result from mass contributions and only a minor contribution will result from local steric height adjustments. This increase in water mass over the continental shelves is not only caused by the loss of land ice, but also from the change in sterodynamic, which tends to push water mass onto the continental shelves from the open oceans.