This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.

Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding cold days. Notably, warm spell duration index (WSDI) and summer days (SU) have a positive trend in both timelines over the entire study area. There is a need to simulate how climate sensitive sectors, such as water and agriculture, are likely to be affected by projected changes under different scenarios for informed decision making in the choice and implementation of adaptation and mitigation effective measures.

The increase in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes threatens socioeconomic development. This study examines variability of mean and extreme climate, farmers’ perception of the changes, and impacts in the Awash River Basin. Daily rainfall and temperature data were used to analyze 23 extreme climate indices. The Mann–Kendall test was used to assess the magnitude and significance of the changes. Results show an increase in minimum (0.019–0.055 °C/year) and maximum temperatures (0.049–0.09 °C/year), while total rainfall is on a downward trend (from −3.84 mm/year to −10.26 mm/year). Warm extreme temperature indicators, including warmest day (TXx), warmest night (TNx), warm day (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), show a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, except the tepid–cool humid agroecology zone, cold extreme temperature indicators in cool days (TN10p), cool nights (TX10p), and cold spell duration (CSDI) are declining. Extreme precipitation indices, including maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day), count of days when precipitation ≥10 mm (R10 mm), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), count of days when precipitation ≥20 mm (R20mm), very wet days (R95p), extreme wet days (R99p), and total precipitation (PRCPTOT), show a decreasing trend. The perception of most farmers’ on climate change and climate extremes agreed with climate records. The major impacts perceived and asserted over all agroecologies are food price inflation, crop productivity decline, crop pests and diseases spread, livestock disease increase, and the emergence of pests and weeds. The increasing trend in extreme warm temperatures, decreasing trend in the cold extreme, and declining trend in precipitation indicators affected agricultural productivity and farmers whose livelihood depends on rainfed agriculture. This agroecology-specific study provides critical information to policymakers, decision makers, and farmers about the potential impacts of climate change and extreme events, leading to the development of agroecology-based adaptation measures.

A significant increase in low carbon investments is required to limit global warming to less than 2° C. For example, about USD 900 billion should be invested annually in the energy sector up to 2030 to meet this target. Climate finance provides opportunities for investments in climate-smart projects. Such investments could enhance Africa’s adaptive capacity, food security and economic growth. Nonetheless, Africa lags behind in the access and utilisation of these funds. Climate finance readiness plays a major role in enhancing access to these funds. This paper analyses policy and institutional frameworks that would enhance Kenya’s readiness for climate finance. Publicly available scholarly articles, government and development partners reports were profiled using the following key words: Kenya, climate change, climate mitigation and climate adaptation. Then the keywords; climate finance, climate policy and legislation were used to identify the most relevant publications. These were reviewed to assess Kenya’s readiness for climate finance. The study finds that considerable efforts have been made to enhance Kenya’s readiness for climate finance as evidenced by the formulation of climate-related policies, legislation and the creation of institutions tasked to address climate change. Nonetheless, some policy areas could be enhanced. For instance, the role of the private sector could be better recognised and supported. This study provides an important reference for the government, development partners and private sector involved in negotiations and decision making on climate financing in Kenya.

This study evaluated the effectiveness of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled models from CMIP6 experiments (hereafter; NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) in reproducing observed precipitation and temperature across East Africa (EA) from 1981 to 2014. Additionally, climate changes were estimated under various emission scenarios, namely low (SSP1-2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Multiple robust statistics metrics, the Taylor diagram, and interannual variability skill (IVS) were employed to identify the best-performing models. Significant trends in future precipitation and temperature are evaluated using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests. The results highlighted IPSL-CM6A-LR, EC-Earth3, CanESM5, and INM-CM4-8 as the best-performing models for annual and March to May (MAM) precipitation and temperature respectively. By the end of this century, MAM precipitation and temperature are projected to increase by 40% and 4.5 °C, respectively, under SSP5-8.5. Conversely, a decrease in MAM precipitation and temperature of 5% and 0.8 °C was projected under SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6, respectively. Long-term mean precipitation increased in all climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), with near-term MAM precipitation showing a 5% decrease in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, and some parts of Tanzania. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, temperature rise exceeded 2–6 °C in most regions across the area, with the fastest warming trend of over 6 °C observed in diverse areas. Thus, high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios can be very harmful to EA and further GHG control is needed.

Drought poses a significant threat to water resources in East Africa, necessitating a comprehensive assessment of its impacts for effective mitigation strategies. This study utilizes two global gridded SPEI datasets to analyze drought characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and severity) in East Africa from 1981 to 2021. To estimate the sustainability of water resources over the region, the study employed the Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability framework (RRV) that aggregates the drought characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and severity). Drought is deemed to have occurred when the SPEI value falls below −1, so the threshold for water demand (RRV) is also computed at a threshold level of −1. The findings indicate pronounced changes in drought patterns across East Africa, with evidence of varying degrees of recovery and resilience in different regions. Employing the RRV framework over the East Africa region to determine how the region can cope with the effects of drought revealed a median range of RRV of 0.61 to 0.80, indicating a sustainable situation during the study period. This indicates that despite the recorded drought incidences, the water catchments of lakes, rivers, and major water towers are not threatened and, thus, less vulnerable. Although certain regions exhibit declining resilience and vulnerability to drought impacts, there is a need for targeted mitigation measures and policy interventions to safeguard water resources.