This paper considers an Internet-of-Things (IoT) scenario in which devices sporadically transmit short packets with few pilot symbols over a fading channel. Devices are characterized by unique transmission non-idealities, such as I/Q imbalance. The number of pilots is generally insufficient to obtain an accurate estimate of the end-to-end channel, which includes the effects of fading and of the transmission-side distortion. This paper proposes to tackle this problem by using meta-learning. Accordingly, pilots from previous IoT transmissions are used as meta-training data in order to train a demodulator that is able to quickly adapt to new end-to-end channel conditions from few pilots. Various state-of-the-art meta-learning schemes are adapted to the problem at hand and evaluated, including Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML), First-Order MAML (FOMAML), REPTILE, and fast Context Adaptation VIA meta-learning (CAVIA). Both offline and online solutions are developed. In the latter case, an integrated online meta-learning and adaptive pilot number selection scheme is proposed. Numerical results validate the advantages of meta-learning as compared to training schemes that either do not leverage prior transmissions or apply a standard joint learning algorithms on previously received data.

Recent years have witnessed growing interest in the application of deep neural networks (DNNs) for receiver design, which can potentially be applied in complex environments without relying on knowledge of the channel model. However, the dynamic nature of communication channels often leads to rapid distribution shifts, which may require periodically retraining. This paper formulates a data-efficient two-stage training method that facilitates rapid online adaptation. Our training mechanism uses a predictive meta-learning scheme to train rapidly from data corresponding to both current and past channel realizations. Our method is applicable to any deep neural network (DNN)-based receiver, and does not require transmission of new pilot data for training. To illustrate the proposed approach, we study DNN-aided receivers that utilize an interpretable model-based architecture, and introduce a modular training strategy based on predictive meta-learning. We demonstrate our techniques in simulations on a synthetic linear channel, a synthetic non-linear channel, and a COST 2100 channel. Our results demonstrate that the proposed online training scheme allows receivers to outperform previous techniques based on self-supervision and joint-learning by a margin of up to 2.5 dB in coded bit error rate in rapidly-varying scenarios.

When used in complex engineered systems, such as communication networks, artificial intelligence (AI) models should be not only as accurate as possible, but also well calibrated. A well-calibrated AI model is one that can reliably quantify the uncertainty of its decisions, assigning high confidence levels to decisions that are likely to be correct, and low confidence levels to decisions that are likely to be erroneous. This paper investigates the application of conformal prediction as a general framework to obtain AI models that produce decisions with formal calibration guarantees. Conformal prediction transforms probabilistic predictors into set predictors that are guaranteed to contain the correct answer with a probability chosen by the designer. Such formal calibration guarantees hold irrespective of the true, unknown, distribution underlying the generation of the variables of interest, and can be defined in terms of ensemble or time-averaged probabilities. In this paper, conformal prediction is applied for the first time to the design of AI for communication systems in conjunction with both frequentist and Bayesian learning, focusing on the key tasks of demodulation, modulation classification, and channel prediction. For demodulation and modulation classification, we apply both validation-based and cross-validation-based conformal prediction; while we investigate the use of online conformal prediction for channel prediction. For each task, we evaluate the probability that the set predictor contains the true output, validating the theoretical coverage guarantees of conformal prediction, as well as the informativeness of the predictor via the average predicted set size.

This work takes a critical look at the application of conventional machine learning methods to wireless communication problems through the lens of reliability and robustness. Deep learning techniques adopt a frequentist framework, and are known to provide poorly calibrated decisions that do not reproduce the true uncertainty caused by limitations in the size of the training data. Bayesian learning, while in principle capable of addressing this shortcoming, is in practice impaired by model misspecification and by the presence of outliers. Both problems are pervasive in wireless communication settings, in which the capacity of machine learning models is subject to resource constraints and training data is affected by noise and interference. In this context, we explore the application of the framework of robust Bayesian learning. After a tutorial-style introduction to robust Bayesian learning, we showcase the merits of robust Bayesian learning on several important wireless communication problems in terms of accuracy, calibration, and robustness to outliers and misspecification.

In many real-world problems, predictions are leveraged to monitor and control cyber-physical systems, demanding guarantees on the satisfaction of reliability and safety requirements. However, predictions are inherently uncertain, and managing prediction uncertainty presents significant challenges in environments characterized by complex dynamics and forking trajectories. In this work, we assume access to a pre-designed probabilistic implicit or explicit sequence model, which may have been obtained using model-based or model-free methods. We introduce probabilistic time series-conformal risk prediction (PTS-CRC), a novel post-hoc calibration procedure that operates on the predictions produced by any pre-designed probabilistic forecaster to yield reliable error bars. In contrast to existing art, PTS-CRC produces predictive sets based on an ensemble of multiple prototype trajectories sampled from the sequence model, supporting the efficient representation of forking uncertainties. Furthermore, unlike the state of the art, PTS-CRC can satisfy reliability definitions beyond coverage. This property is leveraged to devise a novel model predictive control (MPC) framework that addresses open-loop and closed-loop control problems under general average constraints on the quality or safety of the control policy. We experimentally validate the performance of PTS-CRC prediction and control by studying a number of use cases in the context of wireless networking. Across all the considered tasks, PTS-CRC predictors are shown to provide more informative predictive sets, as well as safe control policies with larger returns.

Quantum machine learning is a promising programming paradigm for the optimization of quantum algorithms in the current era of noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) computers. A fundamental challenge in quantum machine learning is generalization, as the designer targets performance under testing conditions, while having access only to limited training data. Existing generalization analyses, while identifying important general trends and scaling laws, cannot be used to assign reliable and informative “error bars” to the decisions made by quantum models. In this article, we propose a general methodology that can reliably quantify the uncertainty of quantum models, irrespective of the amount of training data, of the number of shots, of the ansatz, of the training algorithm, and of the presence of quantum hardware noise. The approach, which builds on probabilistic conformal prediction, turns an arbitrary, possibly small, number of shots from a pre-trained quantum model into a set prediction, e.g., an interval, that provably contains the true target with any desired coverage level. Experimental results confirm the theoretical calibration guarantees of the proposed framework, referred to as quantum conformal prediction .